Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Huge print from ASML set a positive tone, but the potential for tighter NVDA restrictions weighed on sentiment.</li>
<li>Big selling for Corning off the highs as guidance not enough to justify the run... may see weakness in Fujikura and Furukawa.</li>
<li>Strong numbers from Advantest will also help sentiment for Japan SPE.</li>
</ul>


Huge print from ASML set a positive tone, but the potential for tighter NVDA restrictions weighed on sentiment.
Big selling for Corning off the highs as guidance not enough to justify the run... may see weakness in Fujikura and Furukawa.
Strong numbers from Advantest will also help sentiment for Japan SPE.


Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Signals from Tech and Semi's but After-Mkt Moves Pointing Higher

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>US markets fall as tech stocks slide – Fed holds rates, Nvidia drops 4% on export concerns, Meta and Microsoft decline post-earnings, while Tesla rises despite weak results.</li>
<li>Fed cautious on inflation and rates – Officials see trade and immigration pressures, inflation remains elevated, job market solid, and a higher bar for further rate cuts.</li>
<li>Strong earnings from Japan Inc.  – Advantest's profit up 2.7x, Makita's net profit up 65%,  &amp; Shin Etsu's profit rises 6%.</li>
</ul>


US markets fall as tech stocks slide – Fed holds rates, Nvidia drops 4% on export concerns, Meta and Microsoft decline post-earnings, while Tesla rises despite weak results.
Fed cautious on inflation and rates – Officials see trade and immigration pressures, inflation remains elevated, job market solid, and a higher bar for further rate cuts.
Strong earnings from Japan Inc.  – Advantest's profit up 2.7x, Makita's net profit up 65%,  &amp; Shin Etsu's profit rises 6%.


Ohayo Japan | Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft Hit Hard

<ul>
<li>Limited breadth of winners, even in the SOX, with numerous DeepSeek and capex questions outstanding.</li>
<li>Regardless expect JP SPE to be higher to start; watch Advantest into numbers today after its -19% 2-day drop.</li>
<li>IT/SaaS companies are worth a look here with AI R&amp;D costs now potentially much lower including Fujitsu and NEC.</li>
</ul>


Limited breadth of winners, even in the SOX, with numerous DeepSeek and capex questions outstanding.
Regardless expect JP SPE to be higher to start; watch Advantest into numbers today after its -19% 2-day drop.
IT/SaaS companies are worth a look here with AI R&amp;D costs now potentially much lower including Fujitsu and NEC.


Japan Morning Connection: US Tech and Semi Rebound Feel's like a Dead Cat Bounce

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With 3 days left in the review period, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> has a 11.29% weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. That means double capping in March.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.</li>
<li>Double capping will result in big selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.</li>
</ul>


With 3 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has a 11.29% weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). That means double capping in March.
If Fast Retailing (9983 JP) underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.
Double capping will result in big selling on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

<ul>
<li>Softbank pledging $500bn worth of AI investment over the next 4-years will send JP SPE higher.</li>
<li>Plenty of high-quality semi-related names in Japan yet to recover from last years 4Q sell-off.</li>
<li>DR Horton numbers were a beat, but sold off their AM highs despite the weakening yields. Any sell off a buy the dip change for Sumi Forestry.</li>
</ul>


Softbank pledging $500bn worth of AI investment over the next 4-years will send JP SPE higher.
Plenty of high-quality semi-related names in Japan yet to recover from last years 4Q sell-off.
DR Horton numbers were a beat, but sold off their AM highs despite the weakening yields. Any sell off a buy the dip change for Sumi Forestry.


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Opening the Floodgates to AI Investment

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

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Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Signals from Tech and Semi's but After-Mkt Moves Pointing Higher

ASML's strong print boosts sentiment but weighed by NVDA restriction concerns. Corning off the highs; may see weakness in Fujikura and Furukara....

Andrew Jackson

Ohayo Japan | Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft Hit Hard

US markets fall on tech stock slide despite Fed holding rates, Nvidia drops 4% on export concerns, Meta and Microsoft decline post-earnings, while...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: US Tech and Semi Rebound Feel's like a Dead Cat Bounce

Opportunities to watch for higher JP SPE, keep an eye on Advantest after recent drop. IT/SaaS companies like Fujitsu and NEC worth looking at with...

Andrew Jackson

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Fast Retailing will be capped (again) in March - the question is whether it will be single or double. Passives will need to sell either 5x or 10x...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Opening the Floodgates to AI Investment

Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...

Andrew Jackson

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Signals from Tech and Semi's but After-Mkt Moves Pointing Higher

​ASML's strong print boosts sentiment but weighed by NVDA restriction concerns. Corning off the highs; may see weakness in Fujikura and Furukara....

Andrew Jackson

Ohayo Japan | Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft Hit Hard

​US markets fall on tech stock slide despite Fed holding rates, Nvidia drops 4% on export concerns, Meta and Microsoft decline post-earnings, while...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: US Tech and Semi Rebound Feel's like a Dead Cat Bounce

Opportunities to watch for higher JP SPE, keep an eye on Advantest after recent drop. IT/SaaS companies like Fujitsu and NEC worth looking at with...

Andrew Jackson

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Fast Retailing will be capped (again) in March - the question is whether it will be single or double. Passives will need to sell either 5x or 10x...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Opening the Floodgates to AI Investment

​Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...

Andrew Jackson

ASML's strong print boosts sentiment but weighed by NVDA restriction concerns. Corning off the highs; may see weakness in Fujikura and Furukara....

US markets fall on tech stock slide despite Fed holding rates, Nvidia drops 4% on export concerns, Meta and Microsoft decline post-earnings, while...

Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...