Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The market should like the news that Tokyo Electron can now deliver chip gear manufacturing equipment to customers in half the time.</li>
<li>Ibiden as well as SPE majors should get a lift from NVDA's +3.7% move.</li>
<li>Kioxia may catch a bid now that Bain Capital has fully exited their stake. </li>
</ul>


The market should like the news that Tokyo Electron can now deliver chip gear manufacturing equipment to customers in half the time.
Ibiden as well as SPE majors should get a lift from NVDA's +3.7% move.
Kioxia may catch a bid now that Bain Capital has fully exited their stake. 


Japan Morning Connection: Softbank in Focus Ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Release Tomorrow

<ul>
<li>Can expect more from the likes of Rakus Co Ltd, Shift Inc, NEC Corp and Fujitsu Ltd which all traded well yesterday on the rotation away from frontline AI plays.</li>
<li>It would make sense to see interest in physical AI FA plays such as Yaskawa Electric, Mitsubishi Electric, Keyence Corp and Fanuc Corp as alternative exposure to the AI theme.</li>
<li>The power semis such as Fuji Electric, ROHM Co Ltd and Renesas Electronics should hold up after a strong day for the sector in the US.</li>
</ul>


Can expect more from the likes of Rakus Co Ltd, Shift Inc, NEC Corp and Fujitsu Ltd which all traded well yesterday on the rotation away from frontline AI plays.
It would make sense to see interest in physical AI FA plays such as Yaskawa Electric, Mitsubishi Electric, Keyence Corp and Fanuc Corp as alternative exposure to the AI theme.
The power semis such as Fuji Electric, ROHM Co Ltd and Renesas Electronics should hold up after a strong day for the sector in the US.


Japan Morning Connection: Physical AI FA Plays May Draw Fresh Interest as Alternative AI Exposure

<ul>
<li>SOX up ~80% this quarter, one of its biggest ever gains, making quarter-end profit-taking a real risk for high-flying AI names over the next two sessions.</li>
<li>Rohm, Fuji Elec, Renesas and Sanken likely to open weak after Onsemi -24% taken as a warning that there isn’t much upside for power/industrial makers in the DC arena.</li>
<li>European heatwave puts Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric and Panasonic A/C names in focus as a potential distraction from AI volatility into quarter end.</li>
</ul>


SOX up ~80% this quarter, one of its biggest ever gains, making quarter-end profit-taking a real risk for high-flying AI names over the next two sessions.
Rohm, Fuji Elec, Renesas and Sanken likely to open weak after Onsemi -24% taken as a warning that there isn’t much upside for power/industrial makers in the DC arena.
European heatwave puts Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric and Panasonic A/C names in focus as a potential distraction from AI volatility into quarter end.


Japan Morning Connection: AI Names Increasingly Volatile with SOX Reversal and Quarter-End Pressure

<ul>
<li>Should still be more upside after Micron’s AH numbers yesterday with many Japanese SPE names still a ways from their recent highs after correcting earlier in the week.</li>
<li>Still yet to see Furukawa, SEI and SWCC play catch up to Fujikura after strong guidance revision this week.</li>
<li>A negative read for JP game developers such as Nintendo and Sony after Microsoft announced price hikes for its Xbox.</li>
</ul>


Should still be more upside after Micron’s AH numbers yesterday with many Japanese SPE names still a ways from their recent highs after correcting earlier in the week.
Still yet to see Furukawa, SEI and SWCC play catch up to Fujikura after strong guidance revision this week.
A negative read for JP game developers such as Nintendo and Sony after Microsoft announced price hikes for its Xbox.


Japan Morning Connection: Room to Run with SPEs Still Below Recent Highs

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>CPO architectures do not eliminate InP demand; escalating power requirements for Continuous Wave lasers expand die size and crush wafer yield, potentially increasing substrate intensity per module.</li>
<li>Merchant InP supply is tighter than headline capacity implies. While all are increasing capacity, Sumitomo is increasingly captive, AXT’s export cadence dictates revenue, and JX remains a minor player.</li>
<li>While the market tracks indium prices, a major supply chain anchor is 7N red phosphorus, where a near-monopoly is held by two Japanese companies dictating substrate production limits.</li>
</ul>


CPO architectures do not eliminate InP demand; escalating power requirements for Continuous Wave lasers expand die size and crush wafer yield, potentially increasing substrate intensity per module.
Merchant InP supply is tighter than headline capacity implies. While all are increasing capacity, Sumitomo is increasingly captive, AXT’s export cadence dictates revenue, and JX remains a minor player.
While the market tracks indium prices, a major supply chain anchor is 7N red phosphorus, where a near-monopoly is held by two Japanese companies dictating substrate production limits.


[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

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Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Softbank in Focus Ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Release Tomorrow

Softbank Group may see interest today ahead of the news that OpenAI is set to release its latest version of GPT-5.6 tomorrow while news of faster...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Physical AI FA Plays May Draw Fresh Interest as Alternative AI Exposure

Expect a continuation of the shift away from frontline AI plays. Interest in physical AI FA plays may see an increase as alternative exposure to...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: AI Names Increasingly Volatile with SOX Reversal and Quarter-End Pressure

Japanese AI and semi names face a rocky quarter end with power/industrial stocks, memory names and Softbank all under pressure, while A/C names may...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Room to Run with SPEs Still Below Recent Highs

Japanese SPEs have room to run as AI rally yet to be fully priced in, with relative s/t laggards including Lasertec, TEL and Resonac.

Andrew Jackson

[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

AI optics demand crushes InP yield. Supply is squeezed with Sumitomo captive and AXT export-bound. Yet Japan's 7N red phosphorus monopoly is the...

Mint Finance

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