Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We add PayPay to our coverage and to our payments company buy list for its GARP qualities</li>
<li>We also add Klarna to the buy list, for its deep value credentials across the broader peer group, and also fro its improving EBITDA margin</li>
<li>We keep Affirm on the sell list, creating an effective pairs trade in the BNPL space with a buy on Klarna and a sell on Affirm</li>
</ul>


We add PayPay to our coverage and to our payments company buy list for its GARP qualities
We also add Klarna to the buy list, for its deep value credentials across the broader peer group, and also fro its improving EBITDA margin
We keep Affirm on the sell list, creating an effective pairs trade in the BNPL space with a buy on Klarna and a sell on Affirm


PayPay (PAYP) Post-IPO and Payment Companies Update

<ul>
<li>Our key picks for 1H 2026 are driven by fundamental valuations, margin and growth prospects; top of our buy list is Nexi, with PagSeguro in second place</li>
<li>Our key sell is Affirm; the increasingly competitive BNPL market is a potential “banana skin” for its premium growth forecasts, coupled with potentially worsening consumer credit delinquency</li>
<li>Klarna is one to watch in 1H 2026, but it is not there yet; the share price’s underwhelming performance post-IPO reflects the competitive BNPL market, especially in the US</li>
</ul>


Our key picks for 1H 2026 are driven by fundamental valuations, margin and growth prospects; top of our buy list is Nexi, with PagSeguro in second place
Our key sell is Affirm; the increasingly competitive BNPL market is a potential “banana skin” for its premium growth forecasts, coupled with potentially worsening consumer credit delinquency
Klarna is one to watch in 1H 2026, but it is not there yet; the share price’s underwhelming performance post-IPO reflects the competitive BNPL market, especially in the US


Payment Companies – Our 2026 High Conviction Ideas

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Klarna Group had a successful IPO in September, but shares were volatile in October and November along with Affirm Holdings and other BNPL market players.</li>
<li>A Swedish first mover in the BNPL space went public at $40.00 per share, raising ~$169M of net proceeds. Selling shareholders offloaded ~$1.2B worth of Klarna Group shares.  </li>
<li>Klarna Group reported record results in 3Q as a public company, surpassing analyst expectations. However, net loss widened to $95M and provisions for credit losses jumped.</li>
</ul>


Klarna Group had a successful IPO in September, but shares were volatile in October and November along with Affirm Holdings and other BNPL market players.
A Swedish first mover in the BNPL space went public at $40.00 per share, raising ~$169M of net proceeds. Selling shareholders offloaded ~$1.2B worth of Klarna Group shares.  
Klarna Group reported record results in 3Q as a public company, surpassing analyst expectations. However, net loss widened to $95M and provisions for credit losses jumped.


Klarna Group (NYSE: KLAR): 3Q’25 Quarterly Update, 4Q Guidance Trajectory Looks Strong

Founder, CEO, GSBR Research

Garvit Bhandari

Founder, CEO

Leading Provider of Equity and Investment Research

GSBR Research

We are an independent equity research provider focused on covering global markets. The aim of the research is to provide an unbiased view of the fundamentals of the company.

<ul>
<li>Affirm has turned GAAP EBIT positive for the first time in Q425 reflecting disciplined cost control and improving unit economics.</li>
<li>Revenues are on track to reach nearly $4B in FY26, driven by expanding merchant adoption and the rising contribution from the Affirm Card.</li>
<li>The stock is  pricing in sustained 25–30% growth and margin expansion as evident in its elevated valuation multiple of 40.5x 2026 P/E.</li>
</ul>


Affirm has turned GAAP EBIT positive for the first time in Q425 reflecting disciplined cost control and improving unit economics.
Revenues are on track to reach nearly $4B in FY26, driven by expanding merchant adoption and the rising contribution from the Affirm Card.
The stock is  pricing in sustained 25–30% growth and margin expansion as evident in its elevated valuation multiple of 40.5x 2026 P/E.


Affirm Holdings (Nasdaq: AFRM) - Accelerating Growth and Expanding Profitability

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Klarna’s IPO issue price of USD40 implies a market capitalisation of USD15.1bn and, according to financial press reports, the IPO was twenty-five times over-subscribed</li>
<li>The Klarna IPO valuation metrics, versus its peers, still serves to highlight Affirm’s very stretched valuation and we stand by our Affirm sell rating</li>
<li>On the positive side, we highlight PayPal as also the best value play of the major BNPL participants; we also like PagSeguro and Nexi</li>
</ul>


Klarna’s IPO issue price of USD40 implies a market capitalisation of USD15.1bn and, according to financial press reports, the IPO was twenty-five times over-subscribed
The Klarna IPO valuation metrics, versus its peers, still serves to highlight Affirm’s very stretched valuation and we stand by our Affirm sell rating
On the positive side, we highlight PayPal as also the best value play of the major BNPL participants; we also like PagSeguro and Nexi


Klarna IPO (KLAR US) – Premium Pricing Out of the Gate, Still a Threat to Affirm’s Current Valuation

United States

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company. The Company builds platform for digital and mobile-first commerce. Affirm Holdings offers financial services tool that allows consumers to purchase goods and services. Affirm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)

PayPay (PAYP) Post-IPO and Payment Companies Update

Adding GARP play PayPay and deep value Klarna to buy list for their growth potential, while keeping Affirm on sell list for pairs trade strategy...

Victor Galliano

Payment Companies – Our 2026 High Conviction Ideas

Top payment picks for 1H 2026: Buy Nexi, PagSeguro for deep value; Sell Affirm due to BNPL competition and credit risks; Keep an eye on Klarna's...

Victor Galliano

Klarna Group (NYSE: KLAR): 3Q’25 Quarterly Update, 4Q Guidance Trajectory Looks Strong

Klarna Group shares continue to trade below IPO offer price of $40.00 per share. The Swedish BNPL giant reported record results in 3Q as a public...

Andrei Zakharov

Affirm Holdings (Nasdaq: AFRM) - Accelerating Growth and Expanding Profitability

AFRM screens as a high-growth, improving-profitability BNPL leader trading at premium to peers. While valuation remains elevated, investors are...

GSBR Research

Klarna IPO (KLAR US) – Premium Pricing Out of the Gate, Still a Threat to Affirm’s Current Valuation

Klarna's IPO price shows strong demand, while Affirm's valuation remains stretched and it looks exposed to a de-rating. We see PayPal, PagSeguro,...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

PayPay (PAYP) Post-IPO and Payment Companies Update

​Adding GARP play PayPay and deep value Klarna to buy list for their growth potential, while keeping Affirm on sell list for pairs trade strategy...

Victor Galliano

Payment Companies – Our 2026 High Conviction Ideas

​Top payment picks for 1H 2026: Buy Nexi, PagSeguro for deep value; Sell Affirm due to BNPL competition and credit risks; Keep an eye on Klarna's...

Victor Galliano

Klarna Group (NYSE: KLAR): 3Q’25 Quarterly Update, 4Q Guidance Trajectory Looks Strong

​Klarna Group shares continue to trade below IPO offer price of $40.00 per share. The Swedish BNPL giant reported record results in 3Q as a public...

Andrei Zakharov

Affirm Holdings (Nasdaq: AFRM) - Accelerating Growth and Expanding Profitability

AFRM screens as a high-growth, improving-profitability BNPL leader trading at premium to peers. While valuation remains elevated, investors are...

GSBR Research

Klarna IPO (KLAR US) – Premium Pricing Out of the Gate, Still a Threat to Affirm’s Current Valuation

​Klarna's IPO price shows strong demand, while Affirm's valuation remains stretched and it looks exposed to a de-rating. We see PayPal, PagSeguro,...

Victor Galliano

Adding GARP play PayPay and deep value Klarna to buy list for their growth potential, while keeping Affirm on sell list for pairs trade strategy...

Top payment picks for 1H 2026: Buy Nexi, PagSeguro for deep value; Sell Affirm due to BNPL competition and credit risks; Keep an eye on Klarna's...

Klarna Group shares continue to trade below IPO offer price of $40.00 per share. The Swedish BNPL giant reported record results in 3Q as a public...

Klarna's IPO price shows strong demand, while Affirm's valuation remains stretched and it looks exposed to a de-rating. We see PayPal, PagSeguro,...