Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. </li>
<li>The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. 
The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Unmatched Operating Leverage: As gold prices surge, miners’ fixed costs allow for disproportionate earnings growth; Kinross leads this trend with a staggering 259% price rally since early 2025.</li>
<li>
 Self-Funded Strategic Expansion: Kinross’s three new U.S. projects boast a 55% IRR and $4.1 billion NPV, fully funded by robust cash flows without compromising a lean, debt-reduced balance sheet.</li>
<li>
Valuation Disconnect: Despite record production and rising ROE, Kinross trades at a discount to peers, offering a high free cash flow yield and significant untapped upside potential.</li>
</ul>



Unmatched Operating Leverage: As gold prices surge, miners’ fixed costs allow for disproportionate earnings growth; Kinross leads this trend with a staggering 259% price rally since early 2025.

 Self-Funded Strategic Expansion: Kinross’s three new U.S. projects boast a 55% IRR and $4.1 billion NPV, fully funded by robust cash flows without compromising a lean, debt-reduced balance sheet.

Valuation Disconnect: Despite record production and rising ROE, Kinross trades at a discount to peers, offering a high free cash flow yield and significant untapped upside potential.


Kinross Gold Is Self Funded, High Yield & Still Cheap

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Forward earnings compress valuation from &gt;40× to ~14×, driven by pricing, volume absorption, and low costs, with NPAT rising toward RMB 6–6.5 bn by FY27.</li>
<li>Concentrated float and GDX/Zijin ownership support a passive bid; dividend capacity lifts toward a 3–4% yield as cash exceeds RMB 4.5 bn.</li>
<li>Throughput upgrades, Abujar recoveries and zero-marginal-cost ounces provide additional upside, sustaining FCF even at US$3,800 gold.</li>
</ul>


Forward earnings compress valuation from &gt;40× to ~14×, driven by pricing, volume absorption, and low costs, with NPAT rising toward RMB 6–6.5 bn by FY27.
Concentrated float and GDX/Zijin ownership support a passive bid; dividend capacity lifts toward a 3–4% yield as cash exceeds RMB 4.5 bn.
Throughput upgrades, Abujar recoveries and zero-marginal-cost ounces provide additional upside, sustaining FCF even at US$3,800 gold.


Zhaojin Mining — Pure Gold Beta with Forward Multiple Compression and Dividend Re-Rating

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 additions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in December. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is a surprise add (as are some of the others).</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.</li>
<li>With float below 10%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> should miss inclusion in the index in December, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dundee-precious-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42245:1" rel="noopener">Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)</a> is a potential inclusion.</li>
<li>There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

Canada

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is a gold producer with operations primarily in northwestern Quebec, northern Mexico, northern Finland and Nunavut.  The Company also has exploration activities in Canada, Europe, Latin America, and the United States.  Agnico Eagle Mines focuses on the exploration, development, and expansion of its gold properities primarily from underground operations.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM US)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

There could be 2 adds in March with another 2 stocks in close range. Capping and constituent changes are estimated to result in turnover of 6.8%...

Brian Freitas

Kinross Gold Is Self Funded, High Yield & Still Cheap

Kinross growth plans are self-funded, delivers high yield and is still cheap. How Kinross turned a 72% gold rally into a 259% gain?

Mint Finance

Zhaojin Mining — Pure Gold Beta with Forward Multiple Compression and Dividend Re-Rating

Article highlights strong forward earnings growth, low valuation, and potential for increased dividends and FCF for Zhaojin.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

The flows have changed following the non-inclusion of Zijin Gold in the index. With cornerstones locked up till end-March, Zijin Gold will not be...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

DPM Metals is a potential add, Zijin Gold is a likely miss in Dec. There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

There could be 2 adds in March with another 2 stocks in close range. Capping and constituent changes are estimated to result in turnover of 6.8%...

Brian Freitas

Kinross Gold Is Self Funded, High Yield & Still Cheap

Kinross growth plans are self-funded, delivers high yield and is still cheap. How Kinross turned a 72% gold rally into a 259% gain?

Mint Finance

Zhaojin Mining — Pure Gold Beta with Forward Multiple Compression and Dividend Re-Rating

​Article highlights strong forward earnings growth, low valuation, and potential for increased dividends and FCF for Zhaojin.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

The flows have changed following the non-inclusion of Zijin Gold in the index. With cornerstones locked up till end-March, Zijin Gold will not be...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

DPM Metals is a potential add, Zijin Gold is a likely miss in Dec. There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a...

Brian Freitas

Article highlights strong forward earnings growth, low valuation, and potential for increased dividends and FCF for Zhaojin.