Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. </li>
<li>The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. 
The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 additions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in December. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is a surprise add (as are some of the others).</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.</li>
<li>With float below 10%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> should miss inclusion in the index in December, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dundee-precious-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42245:1" rel="noopener">Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)</a> is a potential inclusion.</li>
<li>There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed globally. Last month the index inorganically gained significant tracking AUM.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed and rebalanced quarterly during which names can be added or deleted from the index. Our expectations for the December 2025 index rebal event are presented here.</li>
<li>We expect 2 high-conviction ADDs for December 2025, with one-way flow of US$1.85bn. Healthy start for this new-ish index.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed globally. Last month the index inorganically gained significant tracking AUM.
This index is reviewed and rebalanced quarterly during which names can be added or deleted from the index. Our expectations for the December 2025 index rebal event are presented here.
We expect 2 high-conviction ADDs for December 2025, with one-way flow of US$1.85bn. Healthy start for this new-ish index.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: 2 ADDs Expected; US$1.8bn One-Way Flows

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

Canada

Alamos Gold Inc. is a Canadian-based gold producer operating three mines in North America. The Company explores and produces gold from mines. Alamos Gold operates portfolio of development stage projects in Canada, Mexico, Turkey, and the United States.

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Alamos Gold (AGI US)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

There could be 2 adds in March with another 2 stocks in close range. Capping and constituent changes are estimated to result in turnover of 6.8%...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

The flows have changed following the non-inclusion of Zijin Gold in the index. With cornerstones locked up till end-March, Zijin Gold will not be...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

DPM Metals is a potential add, Zijin Gold is a likely miss in Dec. There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: 2 ADDs Expected; US$1.8bn One-Way Flows

The MV GDX Index is the new benchmark for the GDX ETF. Big flows last month on the benchmark change, and now two potential ADDs for December. One...

Travis Lundy

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

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