Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. </li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.</li>
<li>DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Junior Gold Miners Index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.</li>
<li>Below we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the Index Rebal Event in March 2025. </li>
</ul>


The MV Junior Gold Miners Index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
Below we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the Index Rebal Event in March 2025. 


[Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>No constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in December. But there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$269m. There are 8 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest flows are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-american-silver-corp-ce7d7ca6-59e0-44f1-958f-e5b679750b06" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25937:1" rel="noopener">Pan American Silver</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b2gold-corp-fee72de9-9219-4f08-9e4a-eff9db71e070" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33420:1" rel="noopener">B2Gold</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alamos-gold-inc-75888dd6-1d65-427e-950c-393b5d90ab2e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38624:1" rel="noopener">Alamos Gold</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmony-gold-mining-co-ltd-d293fe94-bbca-4158-9fbf-32bc457dfbcd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28569:1" rel="noopener">Harmony Gold Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eldorado-gold-corp-e1b47e21-d9a5-4258-bd94-49cbea7538ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38673:1" rel="noopener">Eldorado Gold</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/k92-mining-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43238:1" rel="noopener">K92 Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iamgold-corp-5935fec7-fa4d-4edb-bfdb-971f391ebb16" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38714:1" rel="noopener">IAMGOLD</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endeavour-silver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38789:1" rel="noopener">Endeavour Silver</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emerald-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1" rel="noopener">Emerald Resources</a>.</li>
</ul>


No constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in December. But there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$269m. There are 8 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest flows are Evolution Mining, Pan American Silver, Westgold Resources, B2Gold, Alamos Gold, Harmony Gold Mining, Eldorado Gold, K92 Mining, IAMGOLD, Endeavour Silver and Emerald Resources.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks

<ul>
<li>The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect a one-way flow of US$168mm for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 3.4%.</li>
</ul>


The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.
We expect a one-way flow of US$168mm for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 3.4%.


[Quiddity Index] MVIS Junior Gold Miners Index Dec24 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alamos Gold Inc.'s third-quarter 2024 earnings presented a comprehensive review of the company's operational and financial performance following its recent acquisition of the Magino mine from Argonaut Gold.</li><li>This acquisition has significantly shaped the latest results, which reflect a mixed bag of outcomes from this transitional phase.</li><li>The third quarter marked a record production milestone for Alamos, with 152,000 ounces of gold produced.</li></ul>

Alamos Gold Inc.'s third-quarter 2024 earnings presented a comprehensive review of the company's operational and financial performance following its recent acquisition of the Magino mine from Argonaut Gold.This acquisition has significantly shaped the latest results, which reflect a mixed bag of outcomes from this transitional phase.The third quarter marked a record production milestone for Alamos, with 152,000 ounces of gold produced.

Alamos Gold Inc.: PDA Project & Mulatos District Expansion Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Canada

Alamos Gold Inc. is a Canadian-based gold producer operating three mines in North America. The Company explores and produces gold from mines. Alamos Gold operates portfolio of development stage projects in Canada, Mexico, Turkey, and the United States.

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Alamos Gold (AGI US)

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover

The MV Junior Gold Miners Index rebalances twice a year. It is an interesting index as it has an upper cutoff AND caps. For March, there's one...

Travis Lundy

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks

No constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.6% and in a round-trip trade of US$269m. There...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MVIS Junior Gold Miners Index Dec24 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

The MVIS Junior Gold Miners Index rebalance was announced. The index rebal itself is on 20 Dec. There are no index changes but there are capping/re...

Travis Lundy

Alamos Gold Inc.: PDA Project & Mulatos District Expansion Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Alamos Gold Inc.'s third-quarter 2024 earnings presented a comprehensive review of the company's operational and financial performance following...

Baptista Research

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