Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&amp;P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports</li>
<li>We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.</li>
<li>Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).</li>
</ul>


We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&amp;P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports
We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.
Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).


Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alamos Gold Inc. delivered strong financial and operational performance in the second quarter of 2024, marked by numerous records including production, revenue, and cash flow.</li><li>The company, bolstered by its recent acquisition of Argonaut which included the Magino and Island Gold Mines, now forecasts a significant production increase, projecting an annual rate of approximately 600,000 ounces of gold, potentially expanding to 700,000 ounces by 2026.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Alamos Gold Inc. delivered strong financial and operational performance in the second quarter of 2024, marked by numerous records including production, revenue, and cash flow.The company, bolstered by its recent acquisition of Argonaut which included the Magino and Island Gold Mines, now forecasts a significant production increase, projecting an annual rate of approximately 600,000 ounces of gold, potentially expanding to 700,000 ounces by 2026.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

<ul><li>Alamos Gold Inc. reported a robust first quarter of 2024, showcasing a mixture of operational excellence and strategic acquisitions that positioned the company for significant growth and enhanced value creation.</li><li>The quarter was highlighted by a strong operational performance with a total production of 135,700 ounces of gold, surpassing the company's quarterly guidance.</li><li>This was primarily driven by record production from the La Yaqui Grande mine.</li></ul>

Alamos Gold Inc. reported a robust first quarter of 2024, showcasing a mixture of operational excellence and strategic acquisitions that positioned the company for significant growth and enhanced value creation.The quarter was highlighted by a strong operational performance with a total production of 135,700 ounces of gold, surpassing the company's quarterly guidance.This was primarily driven by record production from the La Yaqui Grande mine.

Alamos Gold Inc.: Expansion and Optimization of Magino Mill As A Key Growth Lever! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Alamos Gold Inc.'s fourth-quarter 2023 results unveiled that the year yielded strong results on multiple fronts, with some of the best performance figures in two decades.</li><li>The company achieved a significant 15% increase in the production reaching a record 529,000 ounces of gold, at the top end of their raised production guidance.</li><li>Operational costs reduced by 4% while revenue saw an impressive increase of 25% to a record $1 billion.</li></ul>

Alamos Gold Inc.'s fourth-quarter 2023 results unveiled that the year yielded strong results on multiple fronts, with some of the best performance figures in two decades.The company achieved a significant 15% increase in the production reaching a record 529,000 ounces of gold, at the top end of their raised production guidance.Operational costs reduced by 4% while revenue saw an impressive increase of 25% to a record $1 billion.

Alamos Gold: Initiation Of Coverage - Impending Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold & 3 Pivotal Factors Driving Growth In 2024 & Beyond! - Financial Forecasts

<ul>
<li>We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.</li>
<li>Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.</li>
<li>Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports <em>that are currently being tested</em> would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.
Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.
Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.


The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

Canada

Alamos Gold Inc. is a Canadian-based gold producer operating three mines in North America. The Company explores and produces gold from mines. Alamos Gold operates portfolio of development stage projects in Canada, Mexico, Turkey, and the United States.

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Alamos Gold (AGI US)

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play. These comparisons are why we expected support...

Vermilion Research

Alamos Gold Inc.: Expansion of Magino

Alamos Gold Inc. delivered strong financial and operational performance in the second quarter of 2024, marked by numerous records including...

Baptista Research

Alamos Gold Inc.: Expansion and Optimization of Magino Mill As A Key Growth Lever! - Major Drivers

Alamos Gold Inc. reported a robust first quarter of 2024, showcasing a mixture of operational excellence and strategic acquisitions that...

Baptista Research

Alamos Gold: Initiation Of Coverage - Impending Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold & 3 Pivotal Factors Driving Growth In 2024 & Beyond! - Financial Forecasts

Alamos Gold Inc.'s fourth-quarter 2023 results unveiled that the year yielded strong results on multiple fronts, with some of the best performance...

Baptista Research

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

The Pullback Finally Begins; $SPX and $NDX $QQQ Testing 2-Month Supports at 4983-5050 and $425-$433 (2/22/24 gap supports); Market Dynamics...

Vermilion Research

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