Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The U.S. has doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, citing national security and domestic industry protection.</li>
<li>The move is expected to raise domestic prices, reduce imports, and increase costs for metal-intensive industries.</li>
<li>Winners include U.S.-based producers like Nucor, United States Steel, Cleveland Cliffs and Century Aluminum; losers are foreign exporters like Aloca, RioTinto, Nippon Steel, Ford, GM etc.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. has doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, citing national security and domestic industry protection.
The move is expected to raise domestic prices, reduce imports, and increase costs for metal-intensive industries.
Winners include U.S.-based producers like Nucor, United States Steel, Cleveland Cliffs and Century Aluminum; losers are foreign exporters like Aloca, RioTinto, Nippon Steel, Ford, GM etc.


Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanshan-aluminium-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43976:1" rel="noopener">Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings (NAI HK)</a> , raised around US$302m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings (NAI HK) , raised around US$302m in its Hong Kong IPO.
It is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Nanshan Aluminium IPO Trading: Low Institutional Coverage, Likely to Trade Weak

<ul>
<li>Alumina's wild swings have turned favourably for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> . Aluminium constituted about 40% 9MFY25 EBITDA and could see significant near-term margin expansion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a>'s over-reliance on external alumina sales implies it could face significant margin contraction in the near-term.</li>
<li>Valuation: Both VEDL and AA trade at about 10x fwd consensus earnings. VEDL also has &gt;10% dividend yield in recent years making it a far attractive bet. </li>
</ul>


Alumina's wild swings have turned favourably for Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) . Aluminium constituted about 40% 9MFY25 EBITDA and could see significant near-term margin expansion.

Alcoa (AA US)'s over-reliance on external alumina sales implies it could face significant margin contraction in the near-term.
Valuation: Both VEDL and AA trade at about 10x fwd consensus earnings. VEDL also has &gt;10% dividend yield in recent years making it a far attractive bet. 


Vedanta (VEDL IN) Set for Major Margin Expansion

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the strengths and potential concerns facing the company.</li><li>The report showcased Alcoa’s resilience and adaptability in navigating the complex global market landscape for aluminum and alumina.</li><li>On the positive side, Alcoa Corporation displayed commendable operational consistency and strategic foresight.</li></ul>

Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the strengths and potential concerns facing the company.The report showcased Alcoa’s resilience and adaptability in navigating the complex global market landscape for aluminum and alumina.On the positive side, Alcoa Corporation displayed commendable operational consistency and strategic foresight.

Alcoa Corporation: Alumina Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see one ASX 100 change and two ASX 200 changes but there are a couple of names lurking just outside the border which have to be monitored carefully.</li>
<li>For ASX 300, we see 13 ADDs and 6 DELs. Many of these expected ADDs and DELs could have more than 10 days of volume to trade.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
We see one ASX 100 change and two ASX 200 changes but there are a couple of names lurking just outside the border which have to be monitored carefully.
For ASX 300, we see 13 ADDs and 6 DELs. Many of these expected ADDs and DELs could have more than 10 days of volume to trade.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

United States

Alcoa Corporation manufactures metal products. The Company produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Alcoa serves aluminum industry worldwide.

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Alcoa (AA US)

Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

The U.S. Midwest aluminum premium spiked by 54% on Monday and 164% YTD to $0.58/lb on June 2, driven by new tariffs and typical early-month...

Rahul Jain

Nanshan Aluminium IPO Trading: Low Institutional Coverage, Likely to Trade Weak

Nanshan Aluminium, raised around US$302m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia. In this note,...

Nicholas Tan

Vedanta (VEDL IN) Set for Major Margin Expansion

Alumina price swings benefit Vedanta Ltd while Alcoa faces margin contraction. Vedanta offers better valuation and dividend yield.

Rahul Jain

Alcoa Corporation: Alumina Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the...

Baptista Research

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

If the new shares issued by Westgold (WGX AU) for its acquisition of Karora (KRR CN) is added to its initial share count, Westgold will become the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

The U.S. Midwest aluminum premium spiked by 54% on Monday and 164% YTD to $0.58/lb on June 2, driven by new tariffs and typical early-month...

Rahul Jain

Nanshan Aluminium IPO Trading: Low Institutional Coverage, Likely to Trade Weak

Nanshan Aluminium, raised around US$302m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia. In this note,...

Nicholas Tan

Vedanta (VEDL IN) Set for Major Margin Expansion

​Alumina price swings benefit Vedanta Ltd while Alcoa faces margin contraction. Vedanta offers better valuation and dividend yield.

Rahul Jain

Alcoa Corporation: Alumina Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the...

Baptista Research

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

If the new shares issued by Westgold (WGX AU) for its acquisition of Karora (KRR CN) is added to its initial share count, Westgold will become the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Alumina price swings benefit Vedanta Ltd while Alcoa faces margin contraction. Vedanta offers better valuation and dividend yield.