Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.</li><li>Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.</li><li>If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!</li></ul>

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ESG Premium Anchored: 100% hydro power + FTSE4Good inclusion support Press Metal’s 12× EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with Norsk Hydro.</li>
<li>Commodity Torque: Earnings highly leveraged to LME aluminium (~RM0.2 bn EBITDA shift per US$100/t); current base case assumes US$2,650/t.</li>
<li>Valuation Balance: SoTP fair value MYR 6.5–6.9/share (~10–15% upside); without ESG uplift, fair value reverts to ~MYR 5.0–5.2/share.</li>
</ul>


ESG Premium Anchored: 100% hydro power + FTSE4Good inclusion support Press Metal’s 12× EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with Norsk Hydro.
Commodity Torque: Earnings highly leveraged to LME aluminium (~RM0.2 bn EBITDA shift per US$100/t); current base case assumes US$2,650/t.
Valuation Balance: SoTP fair value MYR 6.5–6.9/share (~10–15% upside); without ESG uplift, fair value reverts to ~MYR 5.0–5.2/share.


Press Metal: ESG Premium Vs. Aluminium Price Torque

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's share of US imports will halve in 2025 from Mar'18 peak of 21.8%, and ASEAN's share (led by Vietnam) will rise to 14%. India, Korea, Taiwan's shares gain too. </li>
<li>There was a big surge in Asian exports to the US in Jun-Jul'25 to beat tariffs, but tariffs will alter patterns in 4Q2025, cutting export growth and reducing US disinflation. </li>
<li>The rebound in US steel production (+4.6%YoY in Jun-Jul'25) and ISM manufacturing new orders suggests select American industries (metals, automobiles, electronics) will gain but downstream users will suffer steadily more. </li>
</ul>


China's share of US imports will halve in 2025 from Mar'18 peak of 21.8%, and ASEAN's share (led by Vietnam) will rise to 14%. India, Korea, Taiwan's shares gain too. 
There was a big surge in Asian exports to the US in Jun-Jul'25 to beat tariffs, but tariffs will alter patterns in 4Q2025, cutting export growth and reducing US disinflation. 
The rebound in US steel production (+4.6%YoY in Jun-Jul'25) and ISM manufacturing new orders suggests select American industries (metals, automobiles, electronics) will gain but downstream users will suffer steadily more. 


US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

<ul>
<li>Core PCE and CPI inflation remained at 4-year lows in Apr-May'25 despite Trump's tariffs, although June core CPI inflation crept up MoM after further tariff hikes (on steel and aluminium).</li>
<li>M2 growth of just 5.2%YoY (May'25) is a restraining factor on inflation. However, tariff hikes have been much higher than we expected, with most trading partners failing to negotiate reductions. </li>
<li>For consistency with 2024 cuts, the FOMC likely will cut rates this month. But the tariff hikes on most trading partners will push core inflation toward 3%, disallowing further cuts. </li>
</ul>


Core PCE and CPI inflation remained at 4-year lows in Apr-May'25 despite Trump's tariffs, although June core CPI inflation crept up MoM after further tariff hikes (on steel and aluminium).
M2 growth of just 5.2%YoY (May'25) is a restraining factor on inflation. However, tariff hikes have been much higher than we expected, with most trading partners failing to negotiate reductions. 
For consistency with 2024 cuts, the FOMC likely will cut rates this month. But the tariff hikes on most trading partners will push core inflation toward 3%, disallowing further cuts. 


US: Subdued Inflation to Oblige a Reluctant Fed to Cut This Month, but No More in '25

<ul>
<li>The U.S. has doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, citing national security and domestic industry protection.</li>
<li>The move is expected to raise domestic prices, reduce imports, and increase costs for metal-intensive industries.</li>
<li>Winners include U.S.-based producers like Nucor, United States Steel, Cleveland Cliffs and Century Aluminum; losers are foreign exporters like Aloca, RioTinto, Nippon Steel, Ford, GM etc.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. has doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, citing national security and domestic industry protection.
The move is expected to raise domestic prices, reduce imports, and increase costs for metal-intensive industries.
Winners include U.S.-based producers like Nucor, United States Steel, Cleveland Cliffs and Century Aluminum; losers are foreign exporters like Aloca, RioTinto, Nippon Steel, Ford, GM etc.


Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

United States

Alcoa Corporation manufactures metal products. The Company produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Alcoa serves aluminum industry worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Alcoa (AA US)

Monday Delight: 01/12/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help...

Contrarian Cashflows

Press Metal: ESG Premium Vs. Aluminium Price Torque

Press Metal's ESG focus and inclusion in FTSE4Good drive valuation, with potential upside based on commodity prices and sustainability factors.

Rahul Jain

US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Subdued Inflation to Oblige a Reluctant Fed to Cut This Month, but No More in '25

Despite Trump's tariffs, inflation remained low in Apr-May'25, so a July rate cut is likely. But tariffs on most trade partners from Aug'25 (worse...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

The U.S. Midwest aluminum premium spiked by 54% on Monday and 164% YTD to $0.58/lb on June 2, driven by new tariffs and typical early-month...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monday Delight: 01/12/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help...

Contrarian Cashflows

Press Metal: ESG Premium Vs. Aluminium Price Torque

​Press Metal's ESG focus and inclusion in FTSE4Good drive valuation, with potential upside based on commodity prices and sustainability factors.

Rahul Jain

US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

​China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Subdued Inflation to Oblige a Reluctant Fed to Cut This Month, but No More in '25

​Despite Trump's tariffs, inflation remained low in Apr-May'25, so a July rate cut is likely. But tariffs on most trade partners from Aug'25 (worse...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

The U.S. Midwest aluminum premium spiked by 54% on Monday and 164% YTD to $0.58/lb on June 2, driven by new tariffs and typical early-month...

Rahul Jain

Press Metal's ESG focus and inclusion in FTSE4Good drive valuation, with potential upside based on commodity prices and sustainability factors.

China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...

Despite Trump's tariffs, inflation remained low in Apr-May'25, so a July rate cut is likely. But tariffs on most trade partners from Aug'25 (worse...