Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall with the widest spreads narrowing more than the narrowest spreads, and liquid pairs seeing more narrowing than illiquid pairs.</li>
<li>Average AH Premia are at a new 5yr low (longer, actually, but charts below only show 5yrs). The big warning sign? Rolling 52wk performance of A vs H in pairs.</li>
<li>Momentum is going to work until it does not. A new Trump EO this weekend seems to have potential to lead to more restrictions on US ownership of Chinese stocks.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall with the widest spreads narrowing more than the narrowest spreads, and liquid pairs seeing more narrowing than illiquid pairs.
Average AH Premia are at a new 5yr low (longer, actually, but charts below only show 5yrs). The big warning sign? Rolling 52wk performance of A vs H in pairs.
Momentum is going to work until it does not. A new Trump EO this weekend seems to have potential to lead to more restrictions on US ownership of Chinese stocks.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Continue to Fall; Wider Spreads Narrow Most

<ul>
<li>This past week saw SOUTHBOUND Connect clear HK$800bn of gross value traded, and net value was near recent highs at +HK$51bn. Consumer and finance names continue to be the rage.</li>
<li>Notable is the HUGE back-and-forth. If HK$800bn traded and SOUTHBOUND only bought HK$51bn, HK$375bn was round-tripped for short-term purposes.</li>
<li>That is twice the "excess" traded seen for the past year. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> saw US$14bn traded but net buying was US$121mm. </li>
</ul>


This past week saw SOUTHBOUND Connect clear HK$800bn of gross value traded, and net value was near recent highs at +HK$51bn. Consumer and finance names continue to be the rage.
Notable is the HUGE back-and-forth. If HK$800bn traded and SOUTHBOUND only bought HK$51bn, HK$375bn was round-tripped for short-term purposes.
That is twice the "excess" traded seen for the past year. Tencent (700 HK) saw US$14bn traded but net buying was US$121mm. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 21 Feb 2025); Another HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Still Bid

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Alibaba had a super charged move this week, risking 14.56% on its earnings release.</li>
<li>We look at how price movement and volatility evolve in the month after earnings releases.</li>
<li>Recommendations are made on how to position through options in this environment of enhanced volatility.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba had a super charged move this week, risking 14.56% on its earnings release.
We look at how price movement and volatility evolve in the month after earnings releases.
Recommendations are made on how to position through options in this environment of enhanced volatility.


Alibaba – How to Position Post Earnings Amid Sticky Volatility

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alibaba reported 3QFY25 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB280.2bn, up 7.6% YoY, 1% better than Bloomberg consensus; adjusted EBITA/non-GAAP net income for the quarter was RMB54.9bn/51.3bn, up 3.8%/6.5% YoY, 2%/11% better than consensus, driven by a 4/11% beat in adjusted EBITA of Taobao &amp; Tmall (T&amp;T) Group and Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG).</li><li>Post the results, we are becoming more constructive on Alibaba’s EBITA growth outlook in FY26E aided by increasing merchant adoption of Quanzhantui, sooner-than-expected loss reduction from Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC), and more rapid-than-expected cloud revenue growth aided by the increase in AI inference demand across industries.</li><li>We lift SOTP-based TP to US$157.7 (was US$132.2), translating into 15x FY26E PE. Maintain BUY.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Alibaba reported 3QFY25 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB280.2bn, up 7.6% YoY, 1% better than Bloomberg consensus; adjusted EBITA/non-GAAP net income for the quarter was RMB54.9bn/51.3bn, up 3.8%/6.5% YoY, 2%/11% better than consensus, driven by a 4/11% beat in adjusted EBITA of Taobao &amp; Tmall (T&amp;T) Group and Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG).Post the results, we are becoming more constructive on Alibaba’s EBITA growth outlook in FY26E aided by increasing merchant adoption of Quanzhantui, sooner-than-expected loss reduction from Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC), and more rapid-than-expected cloud revenue growth aided by the increase in AI inference demand across industries.We lift SOTP-based TP to US$157.7 (was US$132.2), translating into 15x FY26E PE. Maintain BUY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) - Solid Cloud Rev Growth with Improved Earnings Growth Outlook...

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>After rallying ~50% from its lows, Alibaba rallied another ~10% after reporting in-line result, despite saying it would spend more capex in the next 3 years than the previous 10; </li>
<li>Behind this performance is a sudden clarification of AI's monetization future in China. Alibaba's vision certainly has itself at the center of beneficiary, but a few other readings also exist;</li>
<li>Alibaba suggested that partial replacement of human worker is possible in a platform with structured workflow, allowing AI users to reap benefits earlier than we have anticipated. </li>
</ul>


After rallying ~50% from its lows, Alibaba rallied another ~10% after reporting in-line result, despite saying it would spend more capex in the next 3 years than the previous 10; 
Behind this performance is a sudden clarification of AI's monetization future in China. Alibaba's vision certainly has itself at the center of beneficiary, but a few other readings also exist;
Alibaba suggested that partial replacement of human worker is possible in a platform with structured workflow, allowing AI users to reap benefits earlier than we have anticipated. 


Alibaba's C4Q24 Result Says the Inflection Point of Chinese AI Has Arrived for the Capital Markets

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Feb 2025): AH Premia Continue to Fall; Wider Spreads Narrow Most

AH Premia are at a new 5yr low. AH rolling performance is ridiculously bad. A new Trump Executive Order over the weekend suggests VIEs may be in...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 21 Feb 2025); Another HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Still Bid

SOUTHBOUND volumes have popped significantly. Lots of day-trading. Still-strong net buying. Tech/Consumer and Finance are still the big net buys.

Travis Lundy

Alibaba – How to Position Post Earnings Amid Sticky Volatility

Alibaba's stock surged 14.56% after earnings release, prompting analysis on post-earnings price movement and options strategies for managing...

John Ley

Alibaba (BABA US) - Solid Cloud Rev Growth with Improved Earnings Growth Outlook...

Alibaba reported 3QFY25 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB280.2bn, up 7.6% YoY, 1% better than Bloomberg consensus

CMB International

Alibaba's C4Q24 Result Says the Inflection Point of Chinese AI Has Arrived for the Capital Markets

Alibaba's stock surges after in-line results and plans for increased capex, driven by optimism around AI monetization potential in China and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Feb 2025): AH Premia Continue to Fall; Wider Spreads Narrow Most

AH Premia are at a new 5yr low. AH rolling performance is ridiculously bad. A new Trump Executive Order over the weekend suggests VIEs may be in...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 21 Feb 2025); Another HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Still Bid

SOUTHBOUND volumes have popped significantly. Lots of day-trading. Still-strong net buying. Tech/Consumer and Finance are still the big net buys.

Travis Lundy

Alibaba – How to Position Post Earnings Amid Sticky Volatility

​Alibaba's stock surged 14.56% after earnings release, prompting analysis on post-earnings price movement and options strategies for managing...

John Ley

Alibaba (BABA US) - Solid Cloud Rev Growth with Improved Earnings Growth Outlook...

Alibaba reported 3QFY25 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB280.2bn, up 7.6% YoY, 1% better than Bloomberg consensus

CMB International

Alibaba's C4Q24 Result Says the Inflection Point of Chinese AI Has Arrived for the Capital Markets

​Alibaba's stock surges after in-line results and plans for increased capex, driven by optimism around AI monetization potential in China and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba's stock surged 14.56% after earnings release, prompting analysis on post-earnings price movement and options strategies for managing...

Alibaba's stock surges after in-line results and plans for increased capex, driven by optimism around AI monetization potential in China and...