Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen sharply to 97.33, down over 10% year-to-date and hitting a fresh 1-year low.</li>
<li>This decline is being driven by rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, political uncertainty around central bank independence, and a broader shift in global risk appetite.</li>
<li>Over the past two years, gold miners, aluminum, copper, and diversified metal stocks have shown the strongest inverse correlation with DXY.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen sharply to 97.33, down over 10% year-to-date and hitting a fresh 1-year low.
This decline is being driven by rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, political uncertainty around central bank independence, and a broader shift in global risk appetite.
Over the past two years, gold miners, aluminum, copper, and diversified metal stocks have shown the strongest inverse correlation with DXY.


DXY Cracks 97: Commodity Stocks in Focus as Dollar Slide Deepens

Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

<ul>
<li>EU ETS at €73–75/tCO₂ and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) have made carbon a real cost, but it has not forced capacity exit.</li>
<li>China, at roughly 60% of global primary aluminium output, remains near full utilisation around the 44–45mt level. Global supply is therefore not constrained unless China tightens.</li>
<li>Despite disruption-driven price strength, broker estimates point to a 0.8mt aluminium surplus in 2026 and 1.6mt in 2027, reflecting higher supply and weaker China demand.</li>
</ul>


EU ETS at €73–75/tCO₂ and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) have made carbon a real cost, but it has not forced capacity exit.
China, at roughly 60% of global primary aluminium output, remains near full utilisation around the 44–45mt level. Global supply is therefore not constrained unless China tightens.
Despite disruption-driven price strength, broker estimates point to a 0.8mt aluminium surplus in 2026 and 1.6mt in 2027, reflecting higher supply and weaker China demand.


Aluminium: Output Holds Despite Rising Carbon Costs

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Commodity markets are complex, but understanding core issues can be simplified through arithmetic</li><li>Aluminum and nickel are facing supply shortages and cost escalations, driving prices up</li><li>Copper market dynamics are influenced by resilient Chinese buying and global supply issues</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Commodity markets are complex, but understanding core issues can be simplified through arithmeticAluminum and nickel are facing supply shortages and cost escalations, driving prices upCopper market dynamics are influenced by resilient Chinese buying and global supply issuesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul><li>Significant damage to aluminum processing facilities in the Middle East causing supply disruptions</li><li>Aluminum market facing a potential deficit of 2 million tons, largest since 2000</li><li>Oil market recovery timeline estimated at about two months for volumes to normalize pre-war levels</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Significant damage to aluminum processing facilities in the Middle East causing supply disruptionsAluminum market facing a potential deficit of 2 million tons, largest since 2000Oil market recovery timeline estimated at about two months for volumes to normalize pre-war levelsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends, Commodities Focus

Commodities Focus

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis of key news and pricing issues from across the global shipping, natural gas, power, petrochemicals, agriculture, and coal markets.

<ul><li>Tariffs and trade actions have caused uncertainty and volatility in the US aluminum industry</li><li>The US Midwest premium has quadrupled and imports have dwindled due to the 50% tariffs</li><li>Consumer behavior in the high priced environment has not yet shown significant decreases in purchasing, with many still planning big ticket purchases.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Tariffs and trade actions have caused uncertainty and volatility in the US aluminum industryThe US Midwest premium has quadrupled and imports have dwindled due to the 50% tariffsConsumer behavior in the high priced environment has not yet shown significant decreases in purchasing, with many still planning big ticket purchases.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US aluminum market digests tariff-induced volatility at Platts Symposium

Aluminium is a chemical element with symbol Al and atomic number 13. It is a silvery-white, soft, nonmagnetic and ductile metal in the boron group.

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Aluminium (AAA COMDTY)

DXY Cracks 97: Commodity Stocks in Focus as Dollar Slide Deepens

The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to a 1-year low due to Fed rate cut expectations, central bank uncertainty, and changing global risk appetite,...

Rahul Jain

Aluminium: Output Holds Despite Rising Carbon Costs

Aluminium prices are rising, but carbon is not the constraint, tightness comes from disruption and regional availability rather than supply exit.

Duncan Chan

Global Commodities: It’s Simple Math

Greg Scheer discusses current trends in commodity markets, focusing on precious metals and industrial metals like aluminum, nickel, and copper,...

At Any Rate

Global Commodities: Prices Get Relief

Head of base and precious metals, Greg Shear, discusses the impact of damaged processing facilities on the aluminum market, highlighting supply...

At Any Rate

US aluminum market digests tariff-induced volatility at Platts Symposium

In 2025, the US aluminum industry faced unprecedented volatility due to tariff policies, trade actions, and uncertain market conditions, with...

Commodities Focus

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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DXY Cracks 97: Commodity Stocks in Focus as Dollar Slide Deepens

​The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to a 1-year low due to Fed rate cut expectations, central bank uncertainty, and changing global risk appetite,...

Rahul Jain

Aluminium: Output Holds Despite Rising Carbon Costs

Aluminium prices are rising, but carbon is not the constraint, tightness comes from disruption and regional availability rather than supply exit.

Duncan Chan

Global Commodities: It’s Simple Math

Greg Scheer discusses current trends in commodity markets, focusing on precious metals and industrial metals like aluminum, nickel, and copper,...

At Any Rate

Global Commodities: Prices Get Relief

Head of base and precious metals, Greg Shear, discusses the impact of damaged processing facilities on the aluminum market, highlighting supply...

At Any Rate

US aluminum market digests tariff-induced volatility at Platts Symposium

In 2025, the US aluminum industry faced unprecedented volatility due to tariff policies, trade actions, and uncertain market conditions, with...

Commodities Focus

The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to a 1-year low due to Fed rate cut expectations, central bank uncertainty, and changing global risk appetite,...