Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.</li>
<li>Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)</li>
<li>The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.
Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)
The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025


Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place</li>
<li>Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand</li>
<li>These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn</li>
</ul>


AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place
Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand
These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn


2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>SMRs enable decarbonization of electricity through low carbon heat and hydrogen production. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are advanced nuclear reactors.</li>
<li>SMRs are not new. They have been in design phase for long and not deployed at scale with cost being the primary hurdle.</li>
<li>By 2026 data centres are expected to hog &gt;1,000 TWh of electricity which is equivalent to the electricity consumption of Japan.</li>
</ul>


SMRs enable decarbonization of electricity through low carbon heat and hydrogen production. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are advanced nuclear reactors.
SMRs are not new. They have been in design phase for long and not deployed at scale with cost being the primary hurdle.
By 2026 data centres are expected to hog &gt;1,000 TWh of electricity which is equivalent to the electricity consumption of Japan.


Energy Transition Requires Betting Big on Nuclear Starting Small with SMRs

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Carote is a global kitchenware brand in the online marketplace.</li><li>It has a presence in around 19 countries/ regions (key markets include China, the US, etc.), selling its kitchenware in about 19 online marketplaces (Amazon, Walmart, Tmall, etc.).</li><li>Thanks to the Company’s nearly two decades of industry experience and consumer insights, and its focus on the online channel and the asset-light model (cooperation with contract manufacturers), it generated RMB 1.58bn sales/ RMB 237mn net profit in FY23 and managed to deliver an impressive CAGR of 53%/ 173% during FY21-23.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Carote is a global kitchenware brand in the online marketplace.It has a presence in around 19 countries/ regions (key markets include China, the US, etc.), selling its kitchenware in about 19 online marketplaces (Amazon, Walmart, Tmall, etc.).Thanks to the Company’s nearly two decades of industry experience and consumer insights, and its focus on the online channel and the asset-light model (cooperation with contract manufacturers), it generated RMB 1.58bn sales/ RMB 237mn net profit in FY23 and managed to deliver an impressive CAGR of 53%/ 173% during FY21-23.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Carote Ltd (2549 HK) - Global Quality & Affordable Kitchenware Brand

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>In my opinion, this week’s big news in the semiconductor industry is the ramp of Trainium. It’s a bit subtle, but I will walk you through the secondary impacts and then give you an idea.</li><li>Let’s start at the source and walk backward from there. Amazon finally woke up. <a href="https://www.semianalysis.com/p/amazons-cloud-crisis-how-aws-will" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SemiAnalysis’s piece on why Amazon will lose the future of AI</a> has pretty much turned out correct.</li><li>AWS has a fundamentally different view of how to run infrastructure, and most of it is driven by effectively pursuing Amazon basics at scale for their AWS property.</li></ul>

In my opinion, this week’s big news in the semiconductor industry is the ramp of Trainium. It’s a bit subtle, but I will walk you through the secondary impacts and then give you an idea.Let’s start at the source and walk backward from there. Amazon finally woke up. SemiAnalysis’s piece on why Amazon will lose the future of AI has pretty much turned out correct.AWS has a fundamentally different view of how to run infrastructure, and most of it is driven by effectively pursuing Amazon basics at scale for their AWS property.

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

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Vermilion Research

2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

AI spending is driving strong semiconductor growth today, but see why hyperscale spending, like 2000's Internet Bubble, is approaching an overbuilt...

Jim Handy

Energy Transition Requires Betting Big on Nuclear Starting Small with SMRs

SMRs are critical to energy transition. Not new. Just not deployed at scale yet. Keen to secure exposure to nuclear power industry. Tread...

Mint Finance

Carote Ltd (2549 HK) - Global Quality & Affordable Kitchenware Brand

It has a presence in around 19 countries/ regions (key markets include China, the US, etc.), selling its kitchenware in about 19 online...

CMB International

The Rise of Amazon's Trainium 2

In my opinion, this week’s big news in the semiconductor industry is the ramp of Trainium. It’s a bit subtle, but I will walk you through the...

Fabricated Knowledge

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