Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>TMI's short-term iron ore sentiment indicator has turned negative while steel sentiment holds up; a divergence of this magnitude hasn't been observed since 2018</li>
<li>This dynamic appears to be driven by recent Chinese steel shutdowns on environmental grounds, which the market perceives as aimed at cooling the iron ore price more so than the typical "anti-pollution" measures</li>
<li>Text mining shows a recent +2x STDEV increase in Chinese media mentions of steel in an environmental context, seen as supportive for steel prices but potentially negative for iron ore</li>
<li>More alarmingly, we are seeing a +2x STDEV spike in discussion of iron ore in a policy context, as Chinese authorities appear to be more attuned to CISA's complaint that foreign iron ore miners are disproportionately benefiting from the recovery while Chinese steelmakers suffer</li>
<li>Although underlying activity levels remain strong, the combination of punitive policies and an improving supply picture suggests tightness in iron ore may have peaked</li>
</ul><section><div id="ember4041"><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div></div></div></div></section>


TMI's short-term iron ore sentiment indicator has turned negative while steel sentiment holds up; a divergence of this magnitude hasn't been observed since 2018
This dynamic appears to be driven by recent Chinese steel shutdowns on environmental grounds, which the market perceives as aimed at cooling the iron ore price more so than the typical "anti-pollution" measures
Text mining shows a recent +2x STDEV increase in Chinese media mentions of steel in an environmental context, seen as supportive for steel prices but potentially negative for iron ore
More alarmingly, we are seeing a +2x STDEV spike in discussion of iron ore in a policy context, as Chinese authorities appear to be more attuned to CISA's complaint that foreign iron ore miners are disproportionately benefiting from the recovery while Chinese steelmakers suffer
Although underlying activity levels remain strong, the combination of punitive policies and an improving supply picture suggests tightness in iron ore may have peaked
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Indicators: Iron Ore Sentiment Deteriorates As Increased Policy Focus Drives Greater Caution

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>On 12 May 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> released an <a href="https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/d8db546e-c273-45bb-91e7-7d27181f847b.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> that a Delisting Proposal had been made to the Board by one member of the promoter group, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-resources-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22202:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Resources (VED LN)</a>. The next day, the Board <a href="https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/b1d8e451-77f0-4a23-81aa-d61b7e934c11.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that it had appointed a merchant banker to perform Due Diligence as the board of the target of a Delisting Offer proposal is required to do.</p><p>On the 18th of May, the Board <a href="https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/e8d85371-ab1b-4213-8255-020c02cf8136.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that it had considered the Delisting Proposal and the Due Diligence Report, which had been provided by SBI Capital Markets in the intervening four days (that was a VERY fast Due Diligence Report).</p><ul>
<li>The Board approved the Delisting Proposal</li>
<li>The Board approved a call for shareholder approval by special resolution through postal ballot and e-voting. </li>
</ul><p>That started the ball rolling. In recent Delisting Offer events, the postal ballot ends about 6-8 weeks after the Second Board Meeting, as shown in the guide to such offers, called <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indian-delisting-exit-offers-know-your-process-and-the-games-played" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39683" rel="noopener">Indian Delisting/Exit Offers - Know Your Process and The Games Played</a>. This time, yesterday, the company <a href="https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/32ac248c-3fda-49c1-9e43-86d4ed7f9cf6.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> (on a holiday no less), that e-voting would start the next day and end in one month. </p><p>A business cartoon in the Business India magazine 15 years ago had a round-ish Anil Agarwal squeezing himself into an hourglass, saying <em>“In India, you must have patience. Everything will come through.” </em></p><p>This Delisting Proposal has been waiting for years, and is beyond opportunistic. Now it is being moved along quickly. As a speculative trade, this is a complete no-brainer. But it is not something one sits on.</p>

On 12 May 2020, Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) released an announcement that a Delisting Proposal had been made to the Board by one member of the promoter group, Vedanta Resources (VED LN). The next day, the Board announced that it had appointed a merchant banker to perform Due Diligence as the board of the target of a Delisting Offer proposal is required to do.On the 18th of May, the Board announced that it had considered the Delisting Proposal and the Due Diligence Report, which had been provided by SBI Capital Markets in the intervening four days (that was a VERY fast Due Diligence Report).
The Board approved the Delisting Proposal
The Board approved a call for shareholder approval by special resolution through postal ballot and e-voting. 
That started the ball rolling. In recent Delisting Offer events, the postal ballot ends about 6-8 weeks after the Second Board Meeting, as shown in the guide to such offers, called Indian Delisting/Exit Offers - Know Your Process and The Games Played. This time, yesterday, the company announced (on a holiday no less), that e-voting would start the next day and end in one month. A business cartoon in the Business India magazine 15 years ago had a round-ish Anil Agarwal squeezing himself into an hourglass, saying “In India, you must have patience. Everything will come through.” This Delisting Proposal has been waiting for years, and is beyond opportunistic. Now it is being moved along quickly. As a speculative trade, this is a complete no-brainer. But it is not something one sits on.

Vedanta Delisting Offer - How It Goes From Here

Materials, IPO & Equity Analyst

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a> has made a firm bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sirius-minerals-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23517:1" rel="noopener">Sirius Minerals (SXX LN)</a> offering GBp 5.5/share valuing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sirius-minerals-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23517:1" rel="noopener">Sirius Minerals (SXX LN)</a> at £386M (or US$505M). Anglo American has made a firm offer today as required under UK takeover rules. If approved the deal is expected to close by end of March 2020.  </p><p>Sirius Minerals is still in the construction phase and requires significant funding to ramp up its Polyhalite production capacity to 13mtpa. Anglo American bid provides a lifeline for ramping up the project, reducing financing risk. Although the bid is a 33% premium to pre-offer close price, Sirius has lost ~85% of its value in 2019 after it pulled out of debt raise of US$500M in September 2019.</p><p>We believe that this would be the best offer for current Sirius Minerals shareholders' given the current market conditions and cash flow situation of the company.</p>

Anglo American (AAL LN) has made a firm bid for Sirius Minerals (SXX LN) offering GBp 5.5/share valuing Sirius Minerals (SXX LN) at £386M (or US$505M). Anglo American has made a firm offer today as required under UK takeover rules. If approved the deal is expected to close by end of March 2020.  Sirius Minerals is still in the construction phase and requires significant funding to ramp up its Polyhalite production capacity to 13mtpa. Anglo American bid provides a lifeline for ramping up the project, reducing financing risk. Although the bid is a 33% premium to pre-offer close price, Sirius has lost ~85% of its value in 2019 after it pulled out of debt raise of US$500M in September 2019.We believe that this would be the best offer for current Sirius Minerals shareholders' given the current market conditions and cash flow situation of the company.

Anglo American Bid For Sirius: A Lifeline for Sirius Investors

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally. These ongoing improvements further cement our positive overall outlook, and we continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are poised for additional strength moving forward. In our April International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our overall positive outlook, along with areas within the world's markets where we see immediate opportunity.</p>

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally. These ongoing improvements further cement our positive overall outlook, and we continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are poised for additional strength moving forward. In our April International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our overall positive outlook, along with areas within the world's markets where we see immediate opportunity.

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Positive Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight China

Equity analyst UK & Europe, UK Long Short

Peter Toeman

Equity analyst UK & Europe

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

Boost Research Ltd is an appointed representative of Messels Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the FCA of the UK. 

This document is issued by Boost Research Limited solely for its clients. It may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed to any other person in whole or in part for any purpose without written consent of Boost Research. The material in this document is not intended for distribution or use outside the United Kingdom. This material is not directed at you if Boost Research is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you.

This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer, solicitation, invitation, inducement or recommendation relating to the subscription, purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument.  This document does not constitute, and should not be interpreted as, investment advice.  It is accordingly recommended that you should seek independent advice from a suitably qualified professional advisor before taking any decisions in relation to the investments detailed herein. All expressions of opinions and estimates constitute a judgement and, unless otherwise stated, are those of the author and the research department of Boost Research only, and are subject to change without notice. Boost Research is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. Whilst Boost Research has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this document is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, Boost Research cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness, and you should not act on it without first independently verifying its contents. This document is not guaranteed to be a complete statement or summary of any securities, markets, reports or developments referred to herein. No representation or warranty either expressed or implied is made, nor responsibility of any kind is accepted, by Boost Research or any of its respective directors, officers, employees or analysts either as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this document nor should it be relied on as such. No liability whatsoever is accepted by Boost Research or any of its respective directors, officers, employees or analysts for any loss, whether direct or consequential, arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of the recipient acting on the content of this document, including, without limitation, lost profits arising from the use of this document or any of its contents.

This document is provided with the understanding that Boost Research is not acting in a fiduciary capacity and it is not a personal recommendation to you. Investing in securities entails risks. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of and the income produced by products may fluctuate, so that an investor may get back less than he invested. Investments in the entities and/or the securities or other financial instruments referred to are not suitable for all investors and this document should not be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment in relation to any such investment. The stated price of any securities mentioned herein will generally be the closing price at the end of any of the three business days immediately prior to the publication date on this document. This stated price is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price.

Boost Research and its respective analysts are remunerated for providing investment research to professional investors, corporations, other research institutions and consultancy houses. Boost Research, or its respective directors, officers, employees and clients may have or take positions in the securities or entities mentioned in this document.  Any of these circumstances could create, or be perceived as creating, conflicts of interest. Boost Research’ analysts are not censored in any way and are free to express their personal opinions. As a result, Boost Research may have issued other documents that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusions from, the information contained in this document. Those documents reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of their authors. No director, officer or employee of Boost Research is on the board of directors of any company referenced herein and no one at any such referenced company is on the board of directors of Boost Research.

Messels is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority for the provision of investment advice. Residents of the United Kingdom should seek specific professional financial and investment advice from a stockbroker, banker, solicitor, accountant or other independent professional adviser authorised pursuant to the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. This report is intended only for investors who are 'professional clients' as defined by the FCA, and may not, therefore, be redistributed to other classes of investors.

The content of this report is covered by our Policy of Independence which may be viewed at www.messels.com.

 

Analysts’ Certification

The analysts involved in the production of this document hereby certify that the views expressed in this document accurately reflect their personal views about the securities mentioned herein. The analysts point out that they may buy, sell or already have taken positions in the securities, and related financial instruments, mentioned in this document

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>With just two weeks left before the UK is set to leave the EU, the shape of the arrangements with country's largest trading partners is still to be decided. Imminent political developments will determine whether Brexit is hard, soft, deferred, or aborted</strong>.</p>
<p><strong>The UK's principal share index the FTSE 100 is virtually unchanged since we established our Long/Short portfolio a month ago. Results from Lloyds and Centrica have lead to useful outperformance and underperformance respectively. The M&amp;S joint venture with Ocado is judged by investors to have added a lot more value to the latter than the former. We have been wrong-footed by Melrose Industries, but heck, there is always one.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Remembering that no one ever got poor from taking  profits,  we have closed out our long position in Lloyds Banking.  </strong></p>
<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/081/949/original/Capture%201.PNG?1552520300" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="81949"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">S&amp;P Capital IQ</div>
</div>

With just two weeks left before the UK is set to leave the EU, the shape of the arrangements with country's largest trading partners is still to be decided. Imminent political developments will determine whether Brexit is hard, soft, deferred, or aborted.
The UK's principal share index the FTSE 100 is virtually unchanged since we established our Long/Short portfolio a month ago. Results from Lloyds and Centrica have lead to useful outperformance and underperformance respectively. The M&amp;S joint venture with Ocado is judged by investors to have added a lot more value to the latter than the former. We have been wrong-footed by Melrose Industries, but heck, there is always one.
Remembering that no one ever got poor from taking  profits,  we have closed out our long position in Lloyds Banking.  


S&amp;P Capital IQ


South Africa

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese, and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds. Anglo American has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Australia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Anglo American (AGL SJ)

TMI Indicators: Iron Ore Sentiment Deteriorates As Increased Policy Focus Drives Greater Caution

TMI

Elan Gore

Vedanta Delisting Offer - How It Goes From Here

On 12 May 2020, Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) released an announcement that a Delisting Proposal had been made to the Board by one member of the promoter...

Travis Lundy

Anglo American Bid For Sirius: A Lifeline for Sirius Investors

Anglo American (AAL LN) has made a firm bid for Sirius Minerals (SXX LN) offering GBp 5.5/share valuing Sirius Minerals (SXX LN) at £386M (or...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Positive Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight China

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally....

Vermilion Research

FTSE 100 Long/Short: Beginner's Luck

With just two weeks left before the UK is set to leave the EU, the shape of the arrangements with country's largest trading partners is still to be...

Boost Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)