IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Amman Mineral Internasional / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ)</a>, an Indonesian copper-gold producer, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$860 million. Bookbuilding runs from 31 May to 16 June.</li>
<li>Amman’s Batu Hijau mine when combined with the Elang project has the fifth largest copper equivalent reserves in the world, according to Wood Mackenzie.</li>
<li>The key elements of the investment case rest on world-class reserves, credible development plans, solid top-line growth, high profitability, leading cost competitiveness and cash generation.</li>
</ul>



Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ), an Indonesian copper-gold producer, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$860 million. Bookbuilding runs from 31 May to 16 June.
Amman’s Batu Hijau mine when combined with the Elang project has the fifth largest copper equivalent reserves in the world, according to Wood Mackenzie.
The key elements of the investment case rest on world-class reserves, credible development plans, solid top-line growth, high profitability, leading cost competitiveness and cash generation.


Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: The Investment Case

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/los-andes-copper-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35434:1" rel="noopener">Los Andes Copper Ltd (LA CN)</a> published its long-awaited PFS in late February. The PFS shows an NPV of 2.77 billion USD vs a 240 million USD market cap.</li>
<li>In our opinion, LA is one of the largest, Chile-based copper miners without a strategic investment partner. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hudbay-minerals-inc-79e1a8a8-5377-44fa-b0d2-453fa494a1fa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33286:1" rel="noopener">,  Hudbay Minerals Inc (HBM US) and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hudbay-minerals-inc-79e1a8a8-5377-44fa-b0d2-453fa494a1fa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33286:1" rel="noopener"> have announced offers for copper producers recently. Last year Rio and BHP also made copper acquisitions.</a>
</li>
</ul>



Los Andes Copper Ltd (LA CN) published its long-awaited PFS in late February. The PFS shows an NPV of 2.77 billion USD vs a 240 million USD market cap.
In our opinion, LA is one of the largest, Chile-based copper miners without a strategic investment partner. 

Lundin Mining (LUN CN),  Hudbay Minerals Inc (HBM US) and Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) have announced offers for copper producers recently. Last year Rio and BHP also made copper acquisitions.



Los Andes Copper: PFS Published and M&A Scene Heating Up

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> launched a $25/share bid - a price it saw as attractive and what target <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> saw as opportunistic. </li>
<li>Copper had fallen, and peer stock prices had fallen too. Since then, copper has rebounded and peers have too so what was a 25-30% premium no longer exists.</li>
<li>This means the price of OZL should "enjoy" different dynamics going forward.</li>
</ul>


In August, BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) launched a $25/share bid - a price it saw as attractive and what target OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) saw as opportunistic. 
Copper had fallen, and peer stock prices had fallen too. Since then, copper has rebounded and peers have too so what was a 25-30% premium no longer exists.
This means the price of OZL should "enjoy" different dynamics going forward.


OZ Minerals (OZL) - Copper and Comps Have Caught Up

<ul>
<li>Copper is widely recognised to be in somewhat short supply, and EV/electrification would increase demand going forward (though slower Chinese homebuilding would soften it).</li>
<li>A number of developments suggest a further squeeze in prices could be near and copper price strength along with AUD weakness makes an AUD-denominated OZL Takeover Price easier to raise.</li>
<li>Short-Term positioning and longer-term supply constraints are currently battling for near-term import, but medium-term, there's no escaping the imbalance. Looks like a buy now.</li>
</ul>


Copper is widely recognised to be in somewhat short supply, and EV/electrification would increase demand going forward (though slower Chinese homebuilding would soften it).
A number of developments suggest a further squeeze in prices could be near and copper price strength along with AUD weakness makes an AUD-denominated OZL Takeover Price easier to raise.
Short-Term positioning and longer-term supply constraints are currently battling for near-term import, but medium-term, there's no escaping the imbalance. Looks like a buy now.


OZ Minerals - Circumstances May Merit a Revised Tilt

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a>’s independent board committee unanimously concluded that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yankuang-energy-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK)</a>’s H-Share CBs offer is not in the best interests of Yancoal’s minority shareholders. </li>
<li>Yankuang is open to continuing its discussions with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8427:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)</a> but maintains that the offer was based on long-term factors including expectations of future coal prices.</li>
<li>Overall, the wording of Yankuang’s response suggests that it is more inclined to bide its time rather than return with a better offer. Required FIRB approval remains an overhang.</li>
</ul>



Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)’s independent board committee unanimously concluded that Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK)’s H-Share CBs offer is not in the best interests of Yancoal’s minority shareholders. 
Yankuang is open to continuing its discussions with Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) but maintains that the offer was based on long-term factors including expectations of future coal prices.
Overall, the wording of Yankuang’s response suggests that it is more inclined to bide its time rather than return with a better offer. Required FIRB approval remains an overhang.


Yankuang’s Response Suggests that It Rather Wait than Improve Its Offer for Yancoal

South Africa

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese, and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds. Anglo American has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Australia.

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Anglo American (AGL SJ)

Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: The Investment Case

The key elements of the investment case rest on world-class reserves, credible development plans, solid top-line growth, high profitability,...

Arun George

Los Andes Copper: PFS Published and M&A Scene Heating Up

Los Andes Copper is a sitting duck in the current copper M&A frenzy. Lundin, Hudbay and Glencore have all recently announced copper acquisitions....

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

OZ Minerals (OZL) - Copper and Comps Have Caught Up

BHP bid for OZL at a premium to market, to peer and copper-implied fair. Since then, copper and peers have rebounded. OZL is no longer trading with...

Travis Lundy

OZ Minerals - Circumstances May Merit a Revised Tilt

OZL has dipped as both BHP and OZL appear to be trying to wait each other out on BHP's A$25/shr offer. Chile presents some problems, global stocks...

Travis Lundy

Yankuang’s Response Suggests that It Rather Wait than Improve Its Offer for Yancoal

Yancoal unsurprisingly batted away Yankuang's low-ball offer. The wording in Yankuang's response suggests that it is unlikely to offer improved...

Arun George

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