Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Mixed bag with narrowing participation, widening distribution of returns but with the highest total option volume since November.</li>
<li>Option volumes over the past 2 weeks are 80% higher than the prior 3-month average.</li>
<li>Implied vols weaker across the board with 9 of 11 sectors seeing softer implieds.</li>
</ul>


Mixed bag with narrowing participation, widening distribution of returns but with the highest total option volume since November.
Option volumes over the past 2 weeks are 80% higher than the prior 3-month average.
Implied vols weaker across the board with 9 of 11 sectors seeing softer implieds.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (February 17 – 21): Option Volumes Surge as Rally Narrows

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall with the widest spreads narrowing more than the narrowest spreads, and liquid pairs seeing more narrowing than illiquid pairs.</li>
<li>Average AH Premia are at a new 5yr low (longer, actually, but charts below only show 5yrs). The big warning sign? Rolling 52wk performance of A vs H in pairs.</li>
<li>Momentum is going to work until it does not. A new Trump EO this weekend seems to have potential to lead to more restrictions on US ownership of Chinese stocks.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall with the widest spreads narrowing more than the narrowest spreads, and liquid pairs seeing more narrowing than illiquid pairs.
Average AH Premia are at a new 5yr low (longer, actually, but charts below only show 5yrs). The big warning sign? Rolling 52wk performance of A vs H in pairs.
Momentum is going to work until it does not. A new Trump EO this weekend seems to have potential to lead to more restrictions on US ownership of Chinese stocks.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Continue to Fall; Wider Spreads Narrow Most

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China National Building Material / Equity Bottom-Up

China National Building Material (3323 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a>'s proposed H-share buyback has been approved. We continue to support existing shareholders to tender their holdings to accept the offer. </li>
<li>The buyback will enhance FY25 and FY26 EPS by 4.8% and 8.2%, respectively. Its book value will increase by 11% compared to without a buyback.</li>
<li>The post-buyback FY25 PER of 9.6x is at a premium to the sector median of 7.6x. The proposal has led to significant outperformance, and we anticipate downside risks on completion. </li>
</ul>



China National Building Material (3323 HK)'s proposed H-share buyback has been approved. We continue to support existing shareholders to tender their holdings to accept the offer. 
The buyback will enhance FY25 and FY26 EPS by 4.8% and 8.2%, respectively. Its book value will increase by 11% compared to without a buyback.
The post-buyback FY25 PER of 9.6x is at a premium to the sector median of 7.6x. The proposal has led to significant outperformance, and we anticipate downside risks on completion. 


China National Building Material (3323 HK): Buyback Approved and Implications

David Blennerhassett

China National Building Material / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 6th December 2024, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a></strong> (CNBM), China's leading building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>This elevated CNBM's parent's stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating  a whitewash waiver so the parent would not be obliged to make a full blown offer.  </li>
<li>Independent H-shareholder overwhelmingly approved the waiver yesterday, the 19th February. Tendering closes on the 5th March. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. I'm estimating at least 35%. The Offer is now unconditional.</li>
</ul>


On the 6th December 2024, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), China's leading building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
This elevated CNBM's parent's stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating  a whitewash waiver so the parent would not be obliged to make a full blown offer.  
Independent H-shareholder overwhelmingly approved the waiver yesterday, the 19th February. Tendering closes on the 5th March. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. I'm estimating at least 35%. The Offer is now unconditional.


CNBM (3323 HK): Whitewash Waiver Secured. Next Is The Proration

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The IFA opines that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a> share buyback, which will acquire a maximum of 841.7 million H Shares at HK$4.03, is fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The share buyback seems designed to enable the CNBM parent company to bypass the creeper rule and squeeze the shorts. </li>
<li>The fortuitous material derating of peers has helped make the buyback attractive. Therefore, the votes should pass, and the minimum acceptance condition should be met. </li>
</ul>


The IFA opines that the China National Building Material (3323 HK) share buyback, which will acquire a maximum of 841.7 million H Shares at HK$4.03, is fair and reasonable.
The share buyback seems designed to enable the CNBM parent company to bypass the creeper rule and squeeze the shorts. 
The fortuitous material derating of peers has helped make the buyback attractive. Therefore, the votes should pass, and the minimum acceptance condition should be met. 


China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Vote on 19 February

China

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited primarily manufactures and sells cement, clinker, and aggregates, with products widely used in large-scale infrastructure projects. The company also diversifies into new energy, new materials, environmental protection, digital economy, and international trade. It was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Wuhu, Anhui Province, China.

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Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (February 17 – 21): Option Volumes Surge as Rally Narrows

Option volumes have surged in recent weeks, with narrowing participation and softer implied volatility in most sectors.

John Ley

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Feb 2025): AH Premia Continue to Fall; Wider Spreads Narrow Most

AH Premia are at a new 5yr low. AH rolling performance is ridiculously bad. A new Trump Executive Order over the weekend suggests VIEs may be in...

Travis Lundy

China National Building Material (3323 HK): Buyback Approved and Implications

CNBM's H-share buyback will boost EPS by 4.8% in FY25, with an 11% increase in book value. Its above-sector PER and recent share price strengths...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CNBM (3323 HK): Whitewash Waiver Secured. Next Is The Proration

I'm inclined to simply short outright here, if I had guaranteed take-no-action borrow. Especially as the price closes in on the tender price, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (February 17 – 21): Option Volumes Surge as Rally Narrows

​Option volumes have surged in recent weeks, with narrowing participation and softer implied volatility in most sectors.

John Ley

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Feb 2025): AH Premia Continue to Fall; Wider Spreads Narrow Most

AH Premia are at a new 5yr low. AH rolling performance is ridiculously bad. A new Trump Executive Order over the weekend suggests VIEs may be in...

Travis Lundy

China National Building Material (3323 HK): Buyback Approved and Implications

​CNBM's H-share buyback will boost EPS by 4.8% in FY25, with an 11% increase in book value. Its above-sector PER and recent share price strengths...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CNBM (3323 HK): Whitewash Waiver Secured. Next Is The Proration

I'm inclined to simply short outright here, if I had guaranteed take-no-action borrow. Especially as the price closes in on the tender price, and...

David Blennerhassett

China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Vote on 19 February

The vote comfortably passed, and the minimum tendering condition was met. Therefore, the buyback is unconditional. The current acceptances of...

Arun George

Option volumes have surged in recent weeks, with narrowing participation and softer implied volatility in most sectors.

CNBM's H-share buyback will boost EPS by 4.8% in FY25, with an 11% increase in book value. Its above-sector PER and recent share price strengths...