Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 26th. </li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in BYD and China Power Intl.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 26th. 
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short interest changes in BYD and China Power Intl.


<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, Tianqi, Li Auto, Country Garden Services, Li Ning and outflows from Meituan, Kuaishou, HKEx, GWM, Anta. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, Tianqi, Li Auto, Country Garden Services, Li Ning and outflows from Meituan, Kuaishou, HKEx, GWM, Anta. 


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly (August): $1bn into Tencent

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The September rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy (1088 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports (2020 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>The largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group (1299 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-pacific-insurance-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6177:1" rel="noopener">China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank (939)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The September rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest inflows will be on Baidu (9888 HK), SenseTime Group (20 HK), China Shenhua Energy (1088 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and Anta Sports (2020 HK).
The largest outflows will be on Meituan (3690 HK), AIA Group (1299 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK), SMIC (981 HK), China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) and China Construction Bank (939).


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: September Rebalance Flows Post Capping

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 19th. </li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in China Power Intl, HKEx, CLP, Geely, JD.com, ENN Energy.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 19th. 
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short interest changes in China Power Intl, HKEx, CLP, Geely, JD.com, ENN Energy.


HK Short Interest: China Power Intl, HKEx, CLP, Geely

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our earnings projections for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK)</a> are 14% and 18% below market consensus respectively. We think these are more realistic expectations.</li>
<li>At IPO price of HK$158, CDFC H-share sits on 23.9x FY23F PER. We think it is difficult to trade above 22x - the average for top consumer discretionary names.</li>
<li>Weakened visitor appetite to Sanya, potentially higher discounts, increase in border opening, higher fixed cost and uncertainties for duty free policies beyond 2025 are negative earnings factors.</li>
</ul>


Our earnings projections for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK) are 14% and 18% below market consensus respectively. We think these are more realistic expectations.
At IPO price of HK$158, CDFC H-share sits on 23.9x FY23F PER. We think it is difficult to trade above 22x - the average for top consumer discretionary names.
Weakened visitor appetite to Sanya, potentially higher discounts, increase in border opening, higher fixed cost and uncertainties for duty free policies beyond 2025 are negative earnings factors.


CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Our Earnings Forecasts and Views on H-Share Fair Value

China

ANTA Sports Products Limited designs, develops, manufactures, and markets sportswear, including sports footwear and apparel for professionals and the general public.

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Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)

HK Short Interest: BYD, China Power Intl

We analyzed the latest HK SFC Short Aggregate report and highlight short interest changes in BYD and China Power International.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly (August): $1bn into Tencent

We analyzed August Southbound inflow data and highlight stocks including Tencent, Tianqi, Li Auto, Country Garden Services, Li Ning, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: September Rebalance Flows Post Capping

The September rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH indices will use todays close prices for capping. The one-way trade across all stocks across the...

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest: China Power Intl, HKEx, CLP, Geely

We highlight short interest changes in China Power Intl, HKEx, CLP, Geely, JD.com, ENN Energy based on latest Hong Kong SFC short aggregate report.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Short Interest: BYD, China Power Intl

We analyzed the latest HK SFC Short Aggregate report and highlight short interest changes in BYD and China Power International.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly (August): $1bn into Tencent

We analyzed August Southbound inflow data and highlight stocks including Tencent, Tianqi, Li Auto, Country Garden Services, Li Ning, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: September Rebalance Flows Post Capping

The September rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH indices will use todays close prices for capping. The one-way trade across all stocks across the...

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest: China Power Intl, HKEx, CLP, Geely

We highlight short interest changes in China Power Intl, HKEx, CLP, Geely, JD.com, ENN Energy based on latest Hong Kong SFC short aggregate report.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Our Earnings Forecasts and Views on H-Share Fair Value

CDFC's H-share lPO is priced too high relative to fair value based on our earnings forecasts. There are potentially better entry levels when the...

Osbert Tang, CFA