HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>At the indicated price range, or 24.8-28.6x PER for FY22F and 16.7-19.2x for FY23F, the H-share IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888 CH)</a> is not attractive enough. </li>
<li>2Q22 net profit is worse than it appears. Recent Sanya lockdown has wiped off half of the summer peak season which may even negatively affect demand during Golden Week.</li>
<li>Consensus forecasts are too optimistic and there may be another 15% downside. Given current macroenvironment, market volatility and earnings uncertainty, risk outweighs return even at the low-end of price range.</li>
</ul>


At the indicated price range, or 24.8-28.6x PER for FY22F and 16.7-19.2x for FY23F, the H-share IPO of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888 CH) is not attractive enough. 
2Q22 net profit is worse than it appears. Recent Sanya lockdown has wiped off half of the summer peak season which may even negatively affect demand during Golden Week.
Consensus forecasts are too optimistic and there may be another 15% downside. Given current macroenvironment, market volatility and earnings uncertainty, risk outweighs return even at the low-end of price range.


CTG Duty Free (601888 CH) H-Share IPO: 2Q22/Outlook Updates and Valuation Views

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 5th. </li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short covers for Alibaba, AIA and Country Garden.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 5th. 
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short covers for Alibaba, AIA and Country Garden.


HK Short Interest: Alibaba, AIA, Country Garden Short Covers

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal pricing and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.
In this note, we talk about the deal pricing and run the deal through our ECM framework.


China Tourism Group A/H Listing - Discount Is Enticing at the Low-End

<ul>
<li>Giant Biogene (GB) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


Giant Biogene (GB) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Giant Biogene Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Co-Founders Have Already Cashed in US$1bn+

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The winners in the tension are the defense companies including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avic-shenyang-aircraft-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12150:1" rel="noopener">Avic Shenyang Aircraft (600760 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cssc-offshore-marine-engg-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5089:1" rel="noopener">Cssc Offshore &amp; Marine Engg (317 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Pelosi's Taiwan visit may ignite another round of nationalistic consumption. This will benefit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports (2020 HK)</a> but is negative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topsports-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28153:1" rel="noopener">Topsports International (6110 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC (981 HK)</a> is a long-term beneficiary. There may be adverse spillover effects on Taiwanese companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tingyi-cayman-islands-holding-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14016:1" rel="noopener">Tingyi (322 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/want-want-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:355:1" rel="noopener">Want Want (151 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uni-president-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14927:1" rel="noopener">Uni President China (220 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The winners in the tension are the defense companies including Avic Shenyang Aircraft (600760 CH), AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK) and Cssc Offshore &amp; Marine Engg (317 HK). 
Pelosi's Taiwan visit may ignite another round of nationalistic consumption. This will benefit Li Ning (2331 HK) and Anta Sports (2020 HK) but is negative to Topsports International (6110 HK). 

SMIC (981 HK) is a long-term beneficiary. There may be adverse spillover effects on Taiwanese companies like Tingyi (322 HK), Want Want (151 HK) and Uni President China (220 HK). 


China-US Tension Escalation: Winners and Losers on Pelosi's Taiwan Visit

China

ANTA Sports Products Limited designs, develops, manufactures, and markets sportswear, including sports footwear and apparel for professionals and the general public.

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Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)

HK Short Interest: Alibaba, AIA, Country Garden Short Covers

We highlight week on week short covers for Alibaba, AIA and Country Garden based on latest HK SFC short aggregate report.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Tourism Group A/H Listing - Discount Is Enticing at the Low-End

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Giant Biogene Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Co-Founders Have Already Cashed in US$1bn+

Giant Biogene (GB) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is the largest recombinant collagen based products maker in China.

Sumeet Singh

China-US Tension Escalation: Winners and Losers on Pelosi's Taiwan Visit

Chinese defense companies are the major winners in the escalation of the China-US tension following Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. We think Topsports,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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52-week Range

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CTG Duty Free (601888 CH) H-Share IPO: 2Q22/Outlook Updates and Valuation Views

We consider the indicated price range not attractive enough given current macroenvironment, market volatility and earnings uncertainty. Risk-return...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest: Alibaba, AIA, Country Garden Short Covers

We highlight week on week short covers for Alibaba, AIA and Country Garden based on latest HK SFC short aggregate report.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Tourism Group A/H Listing - Discount Is Enticing at the Low-End

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) aims to raise around US$2.5bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Giant Biogene Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Co-Founders Have Already Cashed in US$1bn+

Giant Biogene (GB) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is the largest recombinant collagen based products maker in China.

Sumeet Singh

China-US Tension Escalation: Winners and Losers on Pelosi's Taiwan Visit

Chinese defense companies are the major winners in the escalation of the China-US tension following Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. We think Topsports,...

Osbert Tang, CFA