Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Guided down: ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron. Revised up: LAM. A number of reasons are mentioned for a slower outlook. China slowdown. TSMC lumpy. Export licenses. Geo-Globo uncertainty. </li>
<li>Yes, But: 1) Chinese firms bought too much equipment in 2022-24  2) Logic Capex of Intel Samsung will decline further  3) Chinese SPE vendors are gaining share </li>
<li>AI is real, HBM is real, SOCAMM is real, but TSMC and SK Hynix are not revising up Capex in 2025. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and 2027. </li>
</ul>


Guided down: ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron. Revised up: LAM. A number of reasons are mentioned for a slower outlook. China slowdown. TSMC lumpy. Export licenses. Geo-Globo uncertainty. 
Yes, But: 1) Chinese firms bought too much equipment in 2022-24  2) Logic Capex of Intel Samsung will decline further  3) Chinese SPE vendors are gaining share 
AI is real, HBM is real, SOCAMM is real, but TSMC and SK Hynix are not revising up Capex in 2025. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and 2027. 


SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>AMAT reported record Q326 revenues of $9.1 billion, +15% QoQ (the highest QoQ growth in the company’s history), +25% YoY, all while handily beating the guided midpoint of $8.95 billion.</li>
<li>Non-GAAP GM increased to 50.4%, +40 basis points QoQ and +150 basis points YoY. Operating income was a record $3.10 billion, with EPS of $3.50, also a record.</li>
<li>The &gt;30 YoY growth that we highlighted last quarter - we're saying now that it's greater than that but we don't want to guide our Q1 at this point</li>
</ul>


AMAT reported record Q326 revenues of $9.1 billion, +15% QoQ (the highest QoQ growth in the company’s history), +25% YoY, all while handily beating the guided midpoint of $8.95 billion.
Non-GAAP GM increased to 50.4%, +40 basis points QoQ and +150 basis points YoY. Operating income was a record $3.10 billion, with EPS of $3.50, also a record.
The &gt;30 YoY growth that we highlighted last quarter - we're saying now that it's greater than that but we don't want to guide our Q1 at this point


Applied Materials Q3FY26. Greater & Greater Growth.

<ul>
<li>AMAT was the last SPE vendor to report, like others it has revised up its revenue outlook.</li>
<li>Similarly, estimates for the end-market, the semiconductor market, are going up, supported by a strong 1Q earnings season, and strong guidance.</li>
<li>Positive: growth keeps beating expectations. Negative: peak growth in 2026-27, valuations, maybe?</li>
</ul>


AMAT was the last SPE vendor to report, like others it has revised up its revenue outlook.
Similarly, estimates for the end-market, the semiconductor market, are going up, supported by a strong 1Q earnings season, and strong guidance.
Positive: growth keeps beating expectations. Negative: peak growth in 2026-27, valuations, maybe?


Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE): All Big Firms Have Increased Revenue Forecasts

CEO / Founder, Crea8

Kim-Hwa Lim

CEO / Founder

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Crea8

Crea8 blends AI-driven precision, big data scalability, and rigorous quantitative frameworks with seasoned human insight. By extracting actionable intelligence from vast global datasets, we eliminate emotional bias and deliver optimal risk-adjusted returns. Our hybrid approach uncovers hidden market efficiencies and ensures your capital is dynamically positioned across markets.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The strategy seeks to invest in global companies with sustainable competitive advantages.</li><li>By adopting a portfolio of stocks instead of individual stocks, the strategy is diversified across countries and industries; and optimised with respect to their expected risks and returns.</li><li>Previous portfolio returned -8.3% vs. MSCI World (-1.3%) – underperformed the benchmark by -7%.</li></ul>

The strategy seeks to invest in global companies with sustainable competitive advantages.By adopting a portfolio of stocks instead of individual stocks, the strategy is diversified across countries and industries; and optimised with respect to their expected risks and returns.Previous portfolio returned -8.3% vs. MSCI World (-1.3%) – underperformed the benchmark by -7%.

Global Competitive Barrier Portfolio (14-Sep-2026)

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...

Nicolas Baratte

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Applied Materials Q3FY26. Greater & Greater Growth.

The >30 YoY growth that we highlighted last quarter - we're saying now that it's greater than that but we don't want to guide our Q1 at this point

William Keating

Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE): All Big Firms Have Increased Revenue Forecasts

AMAT raises revenue outlook along with positive semiconductor market growth, but concerns arise over peak growth in 2026-27 and valuations.

Nicolas Baratte

Global Competitive Barrier Portfolio (14-Sep-2026)

The strategy seeks to invest in global companies with sustainable competitive advantages. By adopting a portfolio of stocks instead of individual...

Crea8

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

​Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...

Nicolas Baratte

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Applied Materials Q3FY26. Greater & Greater Growth.

The >30 YoY growth that we highlighted last quarter - we're saying now that it's greater than that but we don't want to guide our Q1 at this point

William Keating

Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE): All Big Firms Have Increased Revenue Forecasts

​AMAT raises revenue outlook along with positive semiconductor market growth, but concerns arise over peak growth in 2026-27 and valuations.

Nicolas Baratte

Global Competitive Barrier Portfolio (14-Sep-2026)

The strategy seeks to invest in global companies with sustainable competitive advantages. By adopting a portfolio of stocks instead of individual...

Crea8

Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...

AMAT raises revenue outlook along with positive semiconductor market growth, but concerns arise over peak growth in 2026-27 and valuations.