Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY</li>
<li>FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1</li>
<li>R&amp;D &amp; CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY
FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1
R&amp;D &amp; CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%


Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Silicon valley startup Substrate made waves two weeks ago when they emerged from stealth mode to announce a revolutionary new tool they claim will rival ASML’s EUV lithography capability</li>
<li>Substrate simultaneously plans to build next-generation semiconductor fabs to return America to dominance in semiconductor production and will use their technology—a new form of advanced X-ray lithography—to power them.</li>
<li>For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should be interesting!</li>
</ul>


Silicon valley startup Substrate made waves two weeks ago when they emerged from stealth mode to announce a revolutionary new tool they claim will rival ASML’s EUV lithography capability
Substrate simultaneously plans to build next-generation semiconductor fabs to return America to dominance in semiconductor production and will use their technology—a new form of advanced X-ray lithography—to power them.
For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should be interesting!


Substrate. ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Nvidia Pushes TSMC for More Capacity as AI Chip Demand Surges</li>
<li>Apple Expands Its Satellite Ambitions for iPhones Beyond Just Emergencies -- A Step Towards Disintermediating Telcos?</li>
<li>Nvidia’s International HQ in Taipei Deal Clears Final Hurdle -- Boost for Taiwan 2026E-2027E</li>
</ul>


Nvidia Pushes TSMC for More Capacity as AI Chip Demand Surges
Apple Expands Its Satellite Ambitions for iPhones Beyond Just Emergencies -- A Step Towards Disintermediating Telcos?
Nvidia’s International HQ in Taipei Deal Clears Final Hurdle -- Boost for Taiwan 2026E-2027E


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Asking TSMC for More Capacity; Apple to Disintermediate Telcos?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Three weeks ago I wrote that KKR's lockup would expire about now in <em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-ecm-kokusai-elec-6525-kkr-s-lock-up-expiry-in-3-weeks-700mm-clean-up-coming" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:202343" rel="noopener">[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - KKR's Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks - $700mm Clean-Up Coming?</a> </em>
</li>
<li>Today post-close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials (AMAT US)</a> announced a 10.7mm share (4.5%) Accelerated Block Offering to be priced tomorrow morning, at an indicated 4.5-6.5% discount. This would put them at 10+%. </li>
<li>This should be very well taken up. There is index demand on the follow. The question is more about the unwind of KKR's last bit. Perhaps to come soon?</li>
</ul>


Three weeks ago I wrote that KKR's lockup would expire about now in [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - KKR's Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks - $700mm Clean-Up Coming? 

Today post-close, Applied Materials (AMAT US) announced a 10.7mm share (4.5%) Accelerated Block Offering to be priced tomorrow morning, at an indicated 4.5-6.5% discount. This would put them at 10+%. 
This should be very well taken up. There is index demand on the follow. The question is more about the unwind of KKR's last bit. Perhaps to come soon?


[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - Applied Materials $330mm Selldown

<ul>
<li>LRCX reported September 2025 quarter revenues of $5.32 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3% QoQ and up 27.7% YoY.</li>
<li>LRCX is forecasting current quarter revenues of $5.2 billion at the midpoint, slightly down sequentially, but up 18% YoY. In other words, the AI boost is coming, just not yet.</li>
<li>The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!</li>
</ul>


LRCX reported September 2025 quarter revenues of $5.32 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3% QoQ and up 27.7% YoY.
LRCX is forecasting current quarter revenues of $5.2 billion at the midpoint, slightly down sequentially, but up 18% YoY. In other words, the AI boost is coming, just not yet.
The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!


LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY. FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 marginally better than H1.R&D & CapEx...

William Keating

Substrate. ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream?

For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Asking TSMC for More Capacity; Apple to Disintermediate Telcos?

Nvidia and Apple are both making strategic moves to secure more capacity and expand their reach in the tech industry, potentially disrupting...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - Applied Materials $330mm Selldown

Kokusai Electric's recent selldown by AMAT has been well-absorbed and with shares up nearly 10% today on AI-related excitement in the hardware/SPE...

Travis Lundy

LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!

William Keating

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY. FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 marginally better than H1.R&D & CapEx...

William Keating

Substrate. ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream?

For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Asking TSMC for More Capacity; Apple to Disintermediate Telcos?

​Nvidia and Apple are both making strategic moves to secure more capacity and expand their reach in the tech industry, potentially disrupting...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - Applied Materials $330mm Selldown

Kokusai Electric's recent selldown by AMAT has been well-absorbed and with shares up nearly 10% today on AI-related excitement in the hardware/SPE...

Travis Lundy

LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!

William Keating

Nvidia and Apple are both making strategic moves to secure more capacity and expand their reach in the tech industry, potentially disrupting...