Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ASML Holding N.V., a key player in the semiconductor equipment industry, reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2025.</li><li>The company achieved a strong financial performance within its guidance, supported by robust demand in advanced lithography systems.</li><li>For the fourth quarter, ASML's net sales were €9.7 billion, with net system sales accounting for €7.6 billion, comprised of €3.6 billion from EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) systems and €4 billion from non-EUV systems.</li></ul>

ASML Holding N.V., a key player in the semiconductor equipment industry, reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2025.The company achieved a strong financial performance within its guidance, supported by robust demand in advanced lithography systems.For the fourth quarter, ASML's net sales were €9.7 billion, with net system sales accounting for €7.6 billion, comprised of €3.6 billion from EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) systems and €4 billion from non-EUV systems.

ASML: How Do China Dynamics Shape the Biggest Risk—and Opportunity—in Its Revenue Mix?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>ASML reported Q425 revenues of €9.7 billion, €200 million above the guided midpoint, up 30% QoQ and up 5% YoY, their  highest ever quarterly revenue</li>
<li>The company guided current quarter revenues of €8.55 billion at the midpoint. For  FY2026, they forecasted revenues of €36.5 billion at the midpoint, representing an 11.6% YoY growth</li>
<li>Out of the blue headcount reductions will see 3,000 out of 4,500 leadership roles eliminated from their Technology Organization, with 1,400 new engineering positions created. Something's got them spooked...</li>
</ul>


ASML reported Q425 revenues of €9.7 billion, €200 million above the guided midpoint, up 30% QoQ and up 5% YoY, their  highest ever quarterly revenue
The company guided current quarter revenues of €8.55 billion at the midpoint. For  FY2026, they forecasted revenues of €36.5 billion at the midpoint, representing an 11.6% YoY growth
Out of the blue headcount reductions will see 3,000 out of 4,500 leadership roles eliminated from their Technology Organization, with 1,400 new engineering positions created. Something's got them spooked...


ASML Q425. Employees Asking For Headcount Reductions? Give Me A Break!

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASML | strategic redesign to improve the make the company more agile • ING | another clear beat of consensus; ups 2027 ambitions • dsm-firmenich | deal with CVC on AHN business expected to be announced soon • Unilever | sells its Home Care business in Colombia and Ecuador • BAM Group | acquisition strengthens position in Dutch residential market • Dutch politics | fiscally tight budget policy and no to Eurobonds</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASML | strategic redesign to improve the make the company more agile • ING | another clear beat of consensus; ups 2027 ambitions • dsm-firmenich | deal with CVC on AHN business expected to be announced soon • Unilever | sells its Home Care business in Colombia and Ecuador • BAM Group | acquisition strengthens position in Dutch residential market • Dutch politics | fiscally tight budget policy and no to Eurobonds

ASML Holding NV - What's News in Amsterdam

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>4Q25 just in-line. Revenue and Operating Income 2% above Consensus, Net Income in-line. </li>
<li>Last quarter, management said no visibility 2026 “revenue not below 2025”. Consensus was at €34.5bn or +6% YoY. Yesterday, official 2026 guidance mid-point €36.5bn or +12% YoY.</li>
<li>Large increase in bookings in 4Q: €13bn, up 144% QoQ. But 2025 bookings reach €28bn or 77% of 2026 revenue guidance, Backlog €39bn or 106% of 2026 revenue guidance.</li>
</ul>


4Q25 just in-line. Revenue and Operating Income 2% above Consensus, Net Income in-line. 
Last quarter, management said no visibility 2026 “revenue not below 2025”. Consensus was at €34.5bn or +6% YoY. Yesterday, official 2026 guidance mid-point €36.5bn or +12% YoY.
Large increase in bookings in 4Q: €13bn, up 144% QoQ. But 2025 bookings reach €28bn or 77% of 2026 revenue guidance, Backlog €39bn or 106% of 2026 revenue guidance.


ASML: Very Large Increase in Bookings, 2026 Guidance Higher than Consensus: Is It a Big Deal?

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Lumentum converted AI-optics demand into 50.4% gross margin and positive cash flow; Coherent and Fabrinet grew quickly, but their capacity and inventory builds consumed it.</li>
<li>CPO demand has not moved out, but 2026 revenue sits in pumps, DCI, 200G EML, 1.6T and OCS rather than scaled co-packaged engines.</li>
<li>The optical build is already generating revenue before scaled CPO, but the economics are splitting sharply across the laser, integrated-system and manufacturing layers.</li>
</ul>


Lumentum converted AI-optics demand into 50.4% gross margin and positive cash flow; Coherent and Fabrinet grew quickly, but their capacity and inventory builds consumed it.
CPO demand has not moved out, but 2026 revenue sits in pumps, DCI, 200G EML, 1.6T and OCS rather than scaled co-packaged engines.
The optical build is already generating revenue before scaled CPO, but the economics are splitting sharply across the laser, integrated-system and manufacturing layers.


Before CPO: Optics Earnings Are Already Separating Scarcity From Volume

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

ASML: How Do China Dynamics Shape the Biggest Risk—and Opportunity—in Its Revenue Mix?

ASML Holding N.V., a key player in the semiconductor equipment industry, reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year...

Baptista Research

ASML Q425. Employees Asking For Headcount Reductions? Give Me A Break!

Surprise headcount reductions will see 3,000 out of 4,500 leadership roles eliminated from their Technology Org, with 1,400 new engineering...

William Keating

ASML Holding NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ASML | strategic redesign to improve the make the company more agile • ING | another clear beat of consensus; ups 2027...

The IDEA!

ASML: Very Large Increase in Bookings, 2026 Guidance Higher than Consensus: Is It a Big Deal?

4Q25 results slightly beat expectations, with strong bookings supporting 2026 revenue guidance. The stock is very expensive for low growth

Nicolas Baratte

Before CPO: Optics Earnings Are Already Separating Scarcity From Volume

Lumentum is converting constrained laser supply into margin and cash, while Coherent and Fabrinet are still funding the capacity, inventory and...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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ASML: How Do China Dynamics Shape the Biggest Risk—and Opportunity—in Its Revenue Mix?

ASML Holding N.V., a key player in the semiconductor equipment industry, reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year...

Baptista Research

ASML Q425. Employees Asking For Headcount Reductions? Give Me A Break!

Surprise headcount reductions will see 3,000 out of 4,500 leadership roles eliminated from their Technology Org, with 1,400 new engineering...

William Keating

ASML Holding NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ASML | strategic redesign to improve the make the company more agile • ING | another clear beat of consensus; ups 2027...

The IDEA!

ASML: Very Large Increase in Bookings, 2026 Guidance Higher than Consensus: Is It a Big Deal?

​4Q25 results slightly beat expectations, with strong bookings supporting 2026 revenue guidance. The stock is very expensive for low growth

Nicolas Baratte

Before CPO: Optics Earnings Are Already Separating Scarcity From Volume

Lumentum is converting constrained laser supply into margin and cash, while Coherent and Fabrinet are still funding the capacity, inventory and...

Mint Finance

4Q25 results slightly beat expectations, with strong bookings supporting 2026 revenue guidance. The stock is very expensive for low growth