Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASML reported 1Q26: just inline. 2Q26 guidance: just inline. Management revised up 2026 revenue guidance by 4%. Consensus has already revised up. Maybe flat margins is a disappointment.</li>
<li>After ~60 EUV machines sold in 2026, management is targeting ~80 in 2027, with higher ASP. Capacity at ~90 EUV machines – let’s say that’s for 2028.</li>
<li>The stock is trading at 44x ‘26 EPS (20% EPS growth in ’26), 34x ’27 (30% EPS growth in ’27). Probably that’s why the stock is down -5% now</li>
</ul>


ASML reported 1Q26: just inline. 2Q26 guidance: just inline. Management revised up 2026 revenue guidance by 4%. Consensus has already revised up. Maybe flat margins is a disappointment.
After ~60 EUV machines sold in 2026, management is targeting ~80 in 2027, with higher ASP. Capacity at ~90 EUV machines – let’s say that’s for 2028.
The stock is trading at 44x ‘26 EPS (20% EPS growth in ’26), 34x ’27 (30% EPS growth in ’27). Probably that’s why the stock is down -5% now


ASML: 1Q26 and 2Q26 Are Just Inline, 2026 Revenue Revised Up, but Consensus Already There

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>ASML reported Q126 revenues of €8.8 billion, above the midpoint of the guided range of €8.2 to €8.9 billion and comfortably ahead of street consensus of around €8.6 billion</li>
<li>Guided Q2 2026 net sales to €8.4 - €8.8 billion, and raised FY 2026 revenue outlook to €36- €40 billion, up from the previous range of €34 to €39 billion</li>
<li>The stock has had a remarkable run, up around 40% year to date, and the market’s initial reaction has been muted. At 40x forward earnings, that’s hardly a surprise.</li>
</ul>


ASML reported Q126 revenues of €8.8 billion, above the midpoint of the guided range of €8.2 to €8.9 billion and comfortably ahead of street consensus of around €8.6 billion
Guided Q2 2026 net sales to €8.4 - €8.8 billion, and raised FY 2026 revenue outlook to €36- €40 billion, up from the previous range of €34 to €39 billion
The stock has had a remarkable run, up around 40% year to date, and the market’s initial reaction has been muted. At 40x forward earnings, that’s hardly a surprise.


ASML Q1 2026. Revenue Beat, Guidance Raised. What’s Not To Like?

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

<ul><li>In this edition: • Aegon | to sell Aegon UK for GBP 0.75bn cash and a 15.3% stake in Standard Life • ASML Holding | finetunes FY26 net sales outlook to upper end of initial range • bnode | labour dispute reached a new climax yesterday</li></ul>

In this edition: • Aegon | to sell Aegon UK for GBP 0.75bn cash and a 15.3% stake in Standard Life • ASML Holding | finetunes FY26 net sales outlook to upper end of initial range • bnode | labour dispute reached a new climax yesterday

What's News in Amsterdam - 15 April (Aegon | ASML Holding | bnode)

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>With standard EUV spoken for and High-NA capacity tight, ASML now dictates customer roadmaps, forcing foundries to build around tool scarcity rather than their own timelines.</li>
<li>Memory vendors are deploying billions in "survival capex" to secure finite EUV slots for HBM, while ASML looks to extend monopoly downstream into packaging and chiplet bonding.</li>
<li>Just as China sales normalise to 20%, ASML has killed its quarterly bookings disclosure. Will investors be forced to underwrite a revenue conversion cycle after this gauge goes away? </li>
</ul>


With standard EUV spoken for and High-NA capacity tight, ASML now dictates customer roadmaps, forcing foundries to build around tool scarcity rather than their own timelines.
Memory vendors are deploying billions in "survival capex" to secure finite EUV slots for HBM, while ASML looks to extend monopoly downstream into packaging and chiplet bonding.
Just as China sales normalise to 20%, ASML has killed its quarterly bookings disclosure. Will investors be forced to underwrite a revenue conversion cycle after this gauge goes away? 


ASML Pre-Earnings: When the Supplier Becomes the Ultimate Constraint

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASML Holding | EUV productivity breakthrough • KPN | Odido hackers threaten to auction data; more (former) clients affected • E-commerce & Logistics | bigger than expected spike in returns after peak season</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASML Holding | EUV productivity breakthrough • KPN | Odido hackers threaten to auction data; more (former) clients affected • E-commerce & Logistics | bigger than expected spike in returns after peak season

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 24 February (ASML Holding | KPN | E-commerce & Logistics)

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

ASML: 1Q26 and 2Q26 Are Just Inline, 2026 Revenue Revised Up, but Consensus Already There

ASML reports inline 1Q26 and 2Q26 guidance, raises 2026 revenue guidance by 4%. Targeting ~80 EUV machines in 2027. Stock trading at high...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Q1 2026. Revenue Beat, Guidance Raised. What’s Not To Like?

ASML has had a remarkable run, up around 40% year to date, and the market’s initial reaction has been muted. At 40x forward earnings, that’s hardly...

William Keating

What's News in Amsterdam - 15 April (Aegon | ASML Holding | bnode)

In this edition: • Aegon | to sell Aegon UK for GBP 0.75bn cash and a 15.3% stake in Standard Life • ASML Holding | finetunes FY26 net sales...

The IDEA!

ASML Pre-Earnings: When the Supplier Becomes the Ultimate Constraint

ASML's tool scarcity forces foundries to build around timelines, memory vendors deploy billions for EUV slots, and investors face uncertainty as...

Mint Finance

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 24 February (ASML Holding | KPN | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • ASML Holding | EUV productivity breakthrough • KPN | Odido hackers threaten to auction data; more (former) clients...

The IDEA!

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ASML: 1Q26 and 2Q26 Are Just Inline, 2026 Revenue Revised Up, but Consensus Already There

​ASML reports inline 1Q26 and 2Q26 guidance, raises 2026 revenue guidance by 4%. Targeting ~80 EUV machines in 2027. Stock trading at high...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Q1 2026. Revenue Beat, Guidance Raised. What’s Not To Like?

ASML has had a remarkable run, up around 40% year to date, and the market’s initial reaction has been muted. At 40x forward earnings, that’s hardly...

William Keating

What's News in Amsterdam - 15 April (Aegon | ASML Holding | bnode)

In this edition: • Aegon | to sell Aegon UK for GBP 0.75bn cash and a 15.3% stake in Standard Life • ASML Holding | finetunes FY26 net sales...

The IDEA!

ASML Pre-Earnings: When the Supplier Becomes the Ultimate Constraint

​ASML's tool scarcity forces foundries to build around timelines, memory vendors deploy billions for EUV slots, and investors face uncertainty as...

Mint Finance

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 24 February (ASML Holding | KPN | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • ASML Holding | EUV productivity breakthrough • KPN | Odido hackers threaten to auction data; more (former) clients...

The IDEA!

ASML reports inline 1Q26 and 2Q26 guidance, raises 2026 revenue guidance by 4%. Targeting ~80 EUV machines in 2027. Stock trading at high...

ASML's tool scarcity forces foundries to build around timelines, memory vendors deploy billions for EUV slots, and investors face uncertainty as...