Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV US Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.</li>
<li>There will be 2 ADDs and 2 DELs for the March 2026 rebal event. We expect a one-way flow of US$2.64bn and a turnover of around 6% for March 2026.</li>
<li>There are few big impacts. None over a day's worth of volume. But there are several at US$300-900mm to trade at the close.</li>
</ul>


The MV US Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
There will be 2 ADDs and 2 DELs for the March 2026 rebal event. We expect a one-way flow of US$2.64bn and a turnover of around 6% for March 2026.
There are few big impacts. None over a day's worth of volume. But there are several at US$300-900mm to trade at the close.


[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor25 Mar26 Results: Two Index Changes; US$2.6bn One-Way

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> in March, plus a bunch of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$4.9bn. There are 2 stocks with over half a yard to trade.</li>
<li>The largest flows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lam-research-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1116:1" rel="noopener">Lam Research</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv-b0092428-e3ec-4a92-bdd6-2f6eff7f1879" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28204:1" rel="noopener">ASML Holding</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) in March, plus a bunch of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$4.9bn. There are 2 stocks with over half a yard to trade.
The largest flows will be in Micron Technology, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Lam Research, Applied Materials, TSMC, ASML Holding, Broadcom and ARM Holdings.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: 2 Changes & US$4.9bn Trade

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Montage Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>As a global leader in fabless IC design, focusing on interconnect solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-c827a672-7027-4114-b744-0fc66a5d1d98" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (6809 HK)</a>'s 3-year EPS CAGR will reach 43.2%.</li>
<li>We assess a fair price at HK$147.4, or 45.8x FY26 PER, a 20% premium over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rambus-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7214:1" rel="noopener">Rambus (RMBS US)</a>, the third-largest player globally. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-c827a672-7027-4114-b744-0fc66a5d1d98" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
<li>This represents a 37.9% upside, also putting it in line with the average of 28% discount of the H-share IPOs to A-shares since 2025.</li>
</ul>


As a global leader in fabless IC design, focusing on interconnect solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure, Montage Technology (6809 HK)'s 3-year EPS CAGR will reach 43.2%.
We assess a fair price at HK$147.4, or 45.8x FY26 PER, a 20% premium over Rambus (RMBS US), the third-largest player globally. 

This represents a 37.9% upside, also putting it in line with the average of 28% discount of the H-share IPOs to A-shares since 2025.


Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>ChipAgents closed a $21M Series A in October 2025 led by Bessemer Venture Partners.</li><li>The platform uses multiple specialized AI agents.</li><li>ChipAgents operates as a B2B SaaS platform targeting semiconductor design teams.</li></ul>

ChipAgents closed a $21M Series A in October 2025 led by Bessemer Venture Partners.The platform uses multiple specialized AI agents.ChipAgents operates as a B2B SaaS platform targeting semiconductor design teams.

<ul><li>Rebellions raised a $15 million Series B extension in July 2024 led by Saudi Aramco's Wa'ed Ventures.</li><li>Rebellions designs AI inference accelerator chips optimized specifically for running trained models rather than training new ones.</li><li>The business benefits from the 2024 merger with SAPEON, which brought established relationships with Korean telecommunications companies and expanded the engineering team.</li></ul>

Rebellions raised a $15 million Series B extension in July 2024 led by Saudi Aramco's Wa'ed Ventures.Rebellions designs AI inference accelerator chips optimized specifically for running trained models rather than training new ones.The business benefits from the 2024 merger with SAPEON, which brought established relationships with Korean telecommunications companies and expanded the engineering team.

United States

Astera Labs, Inc. provides semiconductor-based connectivity solutions. The Company develops and deploys intelligent connectivity platforms built for cloud and AI infrastructure. Astera Labs serves customers in the United States, Canada, China, Taiwan, and Israel.

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Astera Labs (ALAB US)

[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor25 Mar26 Results: Two Index Changes; US$2.6bn One-Way

There is US$2.6bn one-way to trade on the Market Vector US Semis 25 Index. There are several trades of several hundred million USD but nothing over...

Travis Lundy

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: 2 Changes & US$4.9bn Trade

ARM Holdings and Astera Labs replace Universal Display and Qorvo in March. Plenty of float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way...

Brian Freitas

Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Primer: ChipAgents - 22 Oct 2025

AI platform enabling hardware engineers to automate RTL design, verification, and debugging processes

Sacra

Primer: Rebellions - 30 Sep 2025

Developer of AI accelerator chips and data center systems for efficient inference in large-scale applications

Sacra

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[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor25 Mar26 Results: Two Index Changes; US$2.6bn One-Way

There is US$2.6bn one-way to trade on the Market Vector US Semis 25 Index. There are several trades of several hundred million USD but nothing over...

Travis Lundy

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: 2 Changes & US$4.9bn Trade

ARM Holdings and Astera Labs replace Universal Display and Qorvo in March. Plenty of float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way...

Brian Freitas

Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

​Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Primer: ChipAgents - 22 Oct 2025

AI platform enabling hardware engineers to automate RTL design, verification, and debugging processes

Sacra

Primer: Rebellions - 30 Sep 2025

Developer of AI accelerator chips and data center systems for efficient inference in large-scale applications

Sacra

Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...