Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

The Reserve Bank Board meets today, a month after cutting the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points&nbsp;to a multi-decade low of 2.25%.&nbsp; This followed an 18 month period of interest rate stability.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; There is a compelling case for the RBA to ease policy now to restore the psychology of risk taking in the economy and combat the new capital and cost discipline.&nbsp; But Mr Stevens has previously said that it is important that further cuts do not send a signal to the market that the economy is weak, at a time when consumer and business sentiment remain fragile.&nbsp; Thus, I believe that the May meeting presents the best opportunity to ease policy with the positive narrative of a lower inflation outlook following the release of the first quarter CPI in late April.

The Reserve Bank Board meets today, a month after cutting the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points&nbsp;to a multi-decade low of 2.25%.&nbsp; This followed an 18 month period of interest rate stability.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; There is a compelling case for the RBA to ease policy now to restore the psychology of risk taking in the economy and combat the new capital and cost discipline.&nbsp; But Mr Stevens has previously said that it is important that further cuts do not send a signal to the market that the economy is weak, at a time when consumer and business sentiment remain fragile.&nbsp; Thus, I believe that the May meeting presents the best opportunity to ease policy with the positive narrative of a lower inflation outlook following the release of the first quarter CPI in late April.

The New Capital Discipline and the RBA's Line Ball Decision

As with most macroeconomic releases, there was something for everyone in today’s December quarter CPI. For the doves, the precipitous fall in petrol prices has pulled down the headline CPI which is around 1.6% higher than a year ago. For the hawks, the various measures of core or underlying inflation came in stronger than expected, growing by 0.66% in the quarter. Nonetheless, on a year on year basis, they remain close to the bottom end of the Reserve Bank’s inflation target range of 2-3%.

As with most macroeconomic releases, there was something for everyone in today’s December quarter CPI. For the doves, the precipitous fall in petrol prices has pulled down the headline CPI which is around 1.6% higher than a year ago. For the hawks, the various measures of core or underlying inflation came in stronger than expected, growing by 0.66% in the quarter. Nonetheless, on a year on year basis, they remain close to the bottom end of the Reserve Bank’s inflation target range of 2-3%.

Tame Inflation data and the bond market signal that the yield trade is yet to run its course

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The ACCC has approved Brookfield/EIG’s proposed acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. The Brookfield/EIG offer is A$5.78 and US$2.19 per share, worth A$8.83 at the last close. </li>
<li>The bidders now face the challenge of convincing shareholders to accept the offer and avoid incurring ticking fees. The scheme booklet will be despatched in the coming weeks.</li>
<li>Several shareholders have justifiably argued that the offer is light. Our SoTP valuation is A$9.46 per share, 7.1% above the implied offer price of A$8.83.</li>
</ul>


The ACCC has approved Brookfield/EIG’s proposed acquisition of Origin Energy (ORG AU). The Brookfield/EIG offer is A$5.78 and US$2.19 per share, worth A$8.83 at the last close. 
The bidders now face the challenge of convincing shareholders to accept the offer and avoid incurring ticking fees. The scheme booklet will be despatched in the coming weeks.
Several shareholders have justifiably argued that the offer is light. Our SoTP valuation is A$9.46 per share, 7.1% above the implied offer price of A$8.83.


Origin Energy (ORG AU): ACCC Approves, Shareholders Justifiably Want a Bump

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Brookfield Asset Management/MidOcean Energy in late March, the ACCC approval process has played out in the public eye.</li>
<li>And it hasn't been all beer and Skittles for the Offerors. Not just on competition issues. But also the perceived/apparent public benefit from Brookfield's future commitment to renewable generation.  </li>
<li>All the while, the ACCC recently blocked <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">ANZ (ANZ AU)</a>’s acquisition of Suncorp Bank, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telstra-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:690:1" rel="noopener">Telstra Corp (TLS AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tpg-telecom-ltd-5b64c473-761f-4a0a-a7f9-95770efefa20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30984:1" rel="noopener">TPG Telecom (TPG AU)</a>'s mobile network sharing deal. </li>
</ul>


After Origin Energy (ORG AU) entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Brookfield Asset Management/MidOcean Energy in late March, the ACCC approval process has played out in the public eye.
And it hasn't been all beer and Skittles for the Offerors. Not just on competition issues. But also the perceived/apparent public benefit from Brookfield's future commitment to renewable generation.  
All the while, the ACCC recently blocked ANZ (ANZ AU)’s acquisition of Suncorp Bank, and Telstra Corp (TLS AU)/TPG Telecom (TPG AU)'s mobile network sharing deal. 


Origin Energy: ACCC's Concerns And Brookfield's Quid Pro Quo

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-securities-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39933:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebixcash" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36390:1" rel="noopener">EbixCash (EBIXC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lalatech-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36848:1" rel="noopener">Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianlian-digitech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39940:1" rel="noopener">Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH)</a> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyoden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7002:1" rel="noopener">Kyoden Co Ltd (6881 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP), EbixCash (EBIXC IN), Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK) and Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments - Eoflow (294090 KS), Kyoden Co Ltd (6881 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM), Estia Health (EHE AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (13 Aug) - Toshiba, Kyoden, Eoflow, Chindata, Estia, InvoCare, OreCorp, Origin

Australia

AusNet Services is an energy delivery service provider. The Company engages in electricity distribution and transmission, and owns gas distribution assets in Victoria, Australia.

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Ausnet Services (AST AU)

The New Capital Discipline and the RBA's Line Ball Decision

The Reserve Bank Board meets today, a month after cutting the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to a multi-decade low of 2.25%. This...

Sam Ferraro

Tame Inflation data and the bond market signal that the yield trade is yet to run its course

As with most macroeconomic releases, there was something for everyone in today’s December quarter CPI. For the doves, the precipitous fall in...

Sam Ferraro

Origin Energy (ORG AU): ACCC Approves, Shareholders Justifiably Want a Bump

Several shareholders have justifiably argued that the offer is light. Our SoTP valuation is A$9.46 per share, 7.1% above the implied offer price of...

Arun George

Origin Energy: ACCC's Concerns And Brookfield's Quid Pro Quo

The integrated energy play is trading at a healthy 5.1% gross spread to terms, with an off-ramp perhaps mid-1Q24. I would be a buyer around here.

David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (13 Aug) - Toshiba, Kyoden, Eoflow, Chindata, Estia, InvoCare, OreCorp, Origin

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Toshiba, Kyoden, Eoflow, Chindata, Estia, InvoCare, Musgrave, OreCorp, Origin) and ECM...

Arun George

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