IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> received a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from Brookfield and EIG at A$9.00 per share, a 54.9%  premium to the undisturbed price (9 November).</li>
<li>The Board will grant eight weeks of due diligence access and intends to unanimously recommend a binding offer at A$9.00 per share. The offer is attractive.</li>
<li>Regulatory approvals are an overhang and would likely require price concessions. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 14.9%.</li>
</ul>



Origin Energy (ORG AU) received a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from Brookfield and EIG at A$9.00 per share, a 54.9%  premium to the undisturbed price (9 November).
The Board will grant eight weeks of due diligence access and intends to unanimously recommend a binding offer at A$9.00 per share. The offer is attractive.
Regulatory approvals are an overhang and would likely require price concessions. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 14.9%.


Origin Energy's (ORG AU) Indicative Offer of A$9.00 from Brookfield/EIG

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0607/2022060700001.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejection</a> of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yanzhou-coal-mining-company-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yankuang Energy (1171 HK)</a>'s proposal by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8427:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)</a> independent board was always on the cards.</li>
<li>Yet the bigger question remains - why was this unorthodox structure, involving the issuance of H-Share convertible bonds, tabled in the first place?</li>
<li>Back in Yankuang's court. Revise terms? Walk away? To note, Yancoal has not, to date, received any formal offer or proposal from Yankuang.</li>
</ul>


The rejection of Yankuang Energy (1171 HK)'s proposal by Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) independent board was always on the cards.
Yet the bigger question remains - why was this unorthodox structure, involving the issuance of H-Share convertible bonds, tabled in the first place?
Back in Yankuang's court. Revise terms? Walk away? To note, Yancoal has not, to date, received any formal offer or proposal from Yankuang.


Yancoal, Not Surprisingly, Rejects Yankuang's Proposal

<ul>
<li>The Supreme Court of New South Wales today approved the convening of a Scheme Meeting for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a> on the 13 July.  </li>
<li>The Explanatory Booklet has been registered with ASIC. The Independent Expert (Deloitte) has concluded that the A$5.50/share Scheme Consideration is fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>Separately, the Offeror, Canada's Dye &amp; Durham, has seen its shares decline 57% since the release of its 2Q22 results.</li>
</ul>


The Supreme Court of New South Wales today approved the convening of a Scheme Meeting for Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) on the 13 July.  
The Explanatory Booklet has been registered with ASIC. The Independent Expert (Deloitte) has concluded that the A$5.50/share Scheme Consideration is fair and reasonable. 
Separately, the Offeror, Canada's Dye &amp; Durham, has seen its shares decline 57% since the release of its 2Q22 results.


Link Admin (LNK AU): 13 July Scheme Meeting As Dye & Durham Takes A Bath

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimic-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20030:1" rel="noopener">CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 11 April.</li>
<li>The change has come earlier than expected as Hochtief hold nearly 90% of CIMIC. Positioning on HDN could be light- the stock could rally over the next couple of days.</li>
<li>There could be another ad hoc change prior to the June rebalance and then there will be more changes at the regular rebalance in June.</li>
</ul>



HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU) will replace CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close of trading on 11 April.
The change has come earlier than expected as Hochtief hold nearly 90% of CIMIC. Positioning on HDN could be light- the stock could rally over the next couple of days.
There could be another ad hoc change prior to the June rebalance and then there will be more changes at the regular rebalance in June.


ASX200 Index Rebalance: HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN) Replaces CIMIC; More Changes in May & June

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> has rejected the Brookfield consortium’s bid of A$7.50 cash per share largely due to the mediocre 4.7% premium to the undisturbed price.  </li>
<li>The Brookfield consortium strategy seems to nudge shareholders to force the Board to engage to seek better terms and increase the uncertainty on the scheme vote on the demerger. </li>
<li>At last close, the shares are trading 5% above the terms suggesting a higher bid. A takeout price of A$9 is entirely possible. </li>
</ul>



AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) has rejected the Brookfield consortium’s bid of A$7.50 cash per share largely due to the mediocre 4.7% premium to the undisturbed price.  
The Brookfield consortium strategy seems to nudge shareholders to force the Board to engage to seek better terms and increase the uncertainty on the scheme vote on the demerger. 
At last close, the shares are trading 5% above the terms suggesting a higher bid. A takeout price of A$9 is entirely possible. 


AGL Energy in Brookfield and Grok Ventures’ Crosshairs

Australia

AusNet Services is an energy delivery service provider. The Company engages in electricity distribution and transmission, and owns gas distribution assets in Victoria, Australia.

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Ausnet Services (AST AU)

Origin Energy's (ORG AU) Indicative Offer of A$9.00 from Brookfield/EIG

The offer is attractive. Regulatory approvals are an overhang and would likely require price concessions. At the last close, the gross spread to...

Arun George

Yancoal, Not Surprisingly, Rejects Yankuang's Proposal

There is no firm Offer. It's not at all certain one will be pitched, and one that is considered representative - and less quirky. For now, a bet...

David Blennerhassett

Link Admin (LNK AU): 13 July Scheme Meeting As Dye & Durham Takes A Bath

The dispatch of the Explanatory Booklet is positive. Trading at a 10.7%/46.4% gross/annualised spread. That's attractive.

David Blennerhassett

ASX200 Index Rebalance: HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN) Replaces CIMIC; More Changes in May & June

HDN AU will replace CIM AU in the ASX200 at the close on 11 April. LKE AU could replace CWN AU in May. Then there could be another 4 changes to the...

Brian Freitas

AGL Energy in Brookfield and Grok Ventures’ Crosshairs

The Brookfield consortium clearly knew that a near no-premium bid would be rejected. The strategy seems to nudge the Board to seek better terms and...

Arun George

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