Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AFR revealed late Saturday that Brookfield and Atlassian billionaire and recent green warrior Mike Cannon-Brookes had lobbed an A$8bn (4.7% premium) bid for AGL ahead of its vote to split.</li>
<li>The bid is too low, and would be fraught with competition issues, but it begs the question of whether the company would be better un-split and made greener, faster.</li>
<li>Other megacaps out there have expressed interest in owning Australian integrated utilities, and there are plans on the drawing board which would allow greening if more firming capacity investment arrived.</li>
</ul>


AFR revealed late Saturday that Brookfield and Atlassian billionaire and recent green warrior Mike Cannon-Brookes had lobbed an A$8bn (4.7% premium) bid for AGL ahead of its vote to split.
The bid is too low, and would be fraught with competition issues, but it begs the question of whether the company would be better un-split and made greener, faster.
Other megacaps out there have expressed interest in owning Australian integrated utilities, and there are plans on the drawing board which would allow greening if more firming capacity investment arrived.


Brookfield/Cannon-Brookes Lowball Bid for AGL (AGL AU) Likely to Get the Kibosh.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aventus-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25897:1" rel="noopener">Aventus Group (AVN AU)</a> received the ATO tax ruling on 18 February. This creates some uncertainty around the timing of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT</a> inclusion in the ASX200 Index.</li>
<li>Given the 'latest available shares in issue' are used, we think there is a better than even chance of the stock being included in the index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU)</a> is not included in March, then it could replace Crown Resorts in May. Else, the stock will be added at the June rebalance.</li>
</ul>



Aventus Group (AVN AU) received the ATO tax ruling on 18 February. This creates some uncertainty around the timing of the HomeCo Daily Needs REIT inclusion in the ASX200 Index.
Given the 'latest available shares in issue' are used, we think there is a better than even chance of the stock being included in the index at the March rebalance.
If HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU) is not included in March, then it could replace Crown Resorts in May. Else, the stock will be added at the June rebalance.


ASX200 Index Rebalance: HDN AU Inclusion Is a Matter of Time (Or Timing)

<ul>
<li>Crown and Blackstone have entered a Scheme Implementation Deed under which Blackstone will acquire all shares in Crown Resorts at a cash price of A$13.1/share.</li>
<li>Crown Resorts closed at A$12.64/share on 14 February. Assuming the cash payment is received by mid June , the return is 3.64% absolute and 10.92% annualised.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index in May, while the merged HDN AU/ AVN AU entity could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a>.</li>
</ul>


Crown and Blackstone have entered a Scheme Implementation Deed under which Blackstone will acquire all shares in Crown Resorts at a cash price of A$13.1/share.
Crown Resorts closed at A$12.64/share on 14 February. Assuming the cash payment is received by mid June , the return is 3.64% absolute and 10.92% annualised.

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index in May, while the merged HDN AU/ AVN AU entity could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200.


Crown Resorts (CWN AU): And Blackstone (Almost) Has It; Index Implications

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>BGH has filed an <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02482688_PS-2A1354502?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application</a> with the Takeover Panel over, inter alia, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a> granting exclusivity to CapVest.</li>
<li>This application is similar in nature to the one filed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apa-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18658:1" rel="noopener">APA Group (APA AU)</a> last year after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">AusNet Services (AST AU)</a> granted Brookfield exclusivity in a competitive bidding stoush.</li>
<li>Virtus is currently trading at a gross spread of ~5.0% to the Scheme price, 3.6% to the Alternative Offer, and 1.8% above BGH's terms. </li>
</ul>


BGH has filed an application with the Takeover Panel over, inter alia, Virtus Health (VRT AU) granting exclusivity to CapVest.
This application is similar in nature to the one filed by APA Group (APA AU) last year after AusNet Services (AST AU) granted Brookfield exclusivity in a competitive bidding stoush.
Virtus is currently trading at a gross spread of ~5.0% to the Scheme price, 3.6% to the Alternative Offer, and 1.8% above BGH's terms. 


BGH Lodges Application With The Takeovers Panel Over CapVest's Bid for Virtus

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P DJI Index team announced the replacement for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> when it is deleted from the S&amp;P/ASX200 Friday at the close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arena-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12209:1" rel="noopener">Arena Reit (ARF AU)</a> </li>
<li>There are other changes to sub-indices which are not publicly announced but which should align with previous analysis</li>
<li>This insight provides estimates for the index events Friday and ways to play them.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P DJI Index team announced the replacement for Ausnet Services (AST AU) when it is deleted from the S&amp;P/ASX200 Friday at the close: Arena Reit (ARF AU) 
There are other changes to sub-indices which are not publicly announced but which should align with previous analysis
This insight provides estimates for the index events Friday and ways to play them.


Australia

AusNet Services is an energy delivery service provider. The Company engages in electricity distribution and transmission, and owns gas distribution assets in Victoria, Australia.

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Ausnet Services (AST AU)

Brookfield/Cannon-Brookes Lowball Bid for AGL (AGL AU) Likely to Get the Kibosh.

Brookfield and billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes presented a bid to buy out AGL; the Board met Sunday. I expect it gets no play, but recent coal...

Travis Lundy

ASX200 Index Rebalance: HDN AU Inclusion Is a Matter of Time (Or Timing)

We think there is a better than even chance of HDN being included in the ASX200 Index at the March rebalance. Else, HDN will replace Crown Resorts...

Brian Freitas

Crown Resorts (CWN AU): And Blackstone (Almost) Has It; Index Implications

Crown Resorts and Blackstone have signed a Scheme Implementation Deed. Assuming all approvals are obtained, Crown will be replaced by SVW in the...

Brian Freitas

BGH Lodges Application With The Takeovers Panel Over CapVest's Bid for Virtus

Both proposals (BGH and CapVest's) are indicative - for now. Trading at a gross spread of ~5.0% to the Scheme price, 3.6% to the Alternative Offer,...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX200 - Ausnet OUT, Arena REIT IN

The S&P/ASX 200 will see Ausnet replaced by Arena REIT on 4 Feb. This is widely expected/predicted and Arena has outperformed, but it is a lot of...

Travis Lundy

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