HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The winners in the tension are the defense companies including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avic-shenyang-aircraft-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12150:1" rel="noopener">Avic Shenyang Aircraft (600760 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cssc-offshore-marine-engg-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5089:1" rel="noopener">Cssc Offshore &amp; Marine Engg (317 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Pelosi's Taiwan visit may ignite another round of nationalistic consumption. This will benefit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports (2020 HK)</a> but is negative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topsports-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28153:1" rel="noopener">Topsports International (6110 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC (981 HK)</a> is a long-term beneficiary. There may be adverse spillover effects on Taiwanese companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tingyi-cayman-islands-holding-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14016:1" rel="noopener">Tingyi (322 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/want-want-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:355:1" rel="noopener">Want Want (151 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uni-president-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14927:1" rel="noopener">Uni President China (220 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The winners in the tension are the defense companies including Avic Shenyang Aircraft (600760 CH), AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK) and Cssc Offshore &amp; Marine Engg (317 HK). 
Pelosi's Taiwan visit may ignite another round of nationalistic consumption. This will benefit Li Ning (2331 HK) and Anta Sports (2020 HK) but is negative to Topsports International (6110 HK). 

SMIC (981 HK) is a long-term beneficiary. There may be adverse spillover effects on Taiwanese companies like Tingyi (322 HK), Want Want (151 HK) and Uni President China (220 HK). 


China-US Tension Escalation: Winners and Losers on Pelosi's Taiwan Visit

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable / Index Rebalance

Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (601869 CH)

<ul>
<li>MS-China June 2026 added 21 stocks and deleted 24. With the first implementation week complete, we review current-cycle performance vs history.</li>
<li>A-Share ADDs split by velocity. High-vel gains centered on Yangtze, while Mid- and Low-vel names fell further after implementation.</li>
<li>HK DELETEs had the weakest bridge return in the study history and partially recovered in the first implementation week. The recovery came from two names and was not basket-wide.</li>
</ul>


MS-China June 2026 added 21 stocks and deleted 24. With the first implementation week complete, we review current-cycle performance vs history.
A-Share ADDs split by velocity. High-vel gains centered on Yangtze, while Mid- and Low-vel names fell further after implementation.
HK DELETEs had the weakest bridge return in the study history and partially recovered in the first implementation week. The recovery came from two names and was not basket-wide.


MS-China June 2026 Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

In 1998, before the US and China entered into Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China in 2000, the US Congress enacted a law requiring the Clinton Administration to publish a list of Chinese companies in the US which did business with the People's Liberation Army (Public Law 105-261, Section 1237), and a "Communist Chinese military company" was defined in that law as any company named in to Defense Intelligence Agency documents from 1990 and 1995 and "any other entity owned or controlled by the PLA and engaged in providing commercial services, manufacturing, or exporting."That law basically lay dormant until last year when the Pentagon launched a review of such companies following the Trump White House's labelling of China (and Russia) a "revisionist" power in its first National Security Strategy <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905-2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report</a> in 2017. The goal was to investigate and warn about supply-chain vulnerabilities. The Department of Defense published a list in June 2020 of 20 companies which were "Qualified Entities". It updated the list in late August 2020. The former Secretary of Defense was ousted several days ago and the new Secretary of Defense is now responsible for the list. There is, as of last night, an Executive Order by the White House blocking US 'persons' investment in any of the names mentioned - a list now 31 names long.More below on the impact.

In 1998, before the US and China entered into Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China in 2000, the US Congress enacted a law requiring the Clinton Administration to publish a list of Chinese companies in the US which did business with the People's Liberation Army (Public Law 105-261, Section 1237), and a "Communist Chinese military company" was defined in that law as any company named in to Defense Intelligence Agency documents from 1990 and 1995 and "any other entity owned or controlled by the PLA and engaged in providing commercial services, manufacturing, or exporting."That law basically lay dormant until last year when the Pentagon launched a review of such companies following the Trump White House's labelling of China (and Russia) a "revisionist" power in its first National Security Strategy report in 2017. The goal was to investigate and warn about supply-chain vulnerabilities. The Department of Defense published a list in June 2020 of 20 companies which were "Qualified Entities". It updated the list in late August 2020. The former Secretary of Defense was ousted several days ago and the new Secretary of Defense is now responsible for the list. There is, as of last night, an Executive Order by the White House blocking US 'persons' investment in any of the names mentioned - a list now 31 names long.More below on the impact.

Trump's Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies

<ul>
<li>MSCI announced the quarterly review results on 12 May 2026. As the cycle enters implementation, this note updates the stock setup.</li>
<li>ADD weakness is broad, with CH Mid-vel and CH Low-vel both failing to build bridge support.</li>
<li>DELETEs already sold off, but HK High-vel DELETE still has the weakest first-week implementation profile.</li>
</ul>


MSCI announced the quarterly review results on 12 May 2026. As the cycle enters implementation, this note updates the stock setup.
ADD weakness is broad, with CH Mid-vel and CH Low-vel both failing to build bridge support.
DELETEs already sold off, but HK High-vel DELETE still has the weakest first-week implementation profile.


MS-China June 2026 Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the post-announcement return pattern of MSCI China June 2026 rebalance stocks, separating A-share (CH) and H-share (HK) cohorts within both ADD and DELETE groups.</li>
<li>DELETE: pre announcement was positive, but CH and HK High-vel history still supports shorts.</li>
<li>ADD: CH High-vel was stretched; bridging window's history is positive but inconsistent.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the post-announcement return pattern of MSCI China June 2026 rebalance stocks, separating A-share (CH) and H-share (HK) cohorts within both ADD and DELETE groups.
DELETE: pre announcement was positive, but CH and HK High-vel history still supports shorts.
ADD: CH High-vel was stretched; bridging window's history is positive but inconsistent.


MS-China June 2026 Rebalance: Post-Announcement Trading Pattern Analysis

China

AviChina Industry & Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of civil aviation products. The company operates through segments including Aviation Entire Aircraft, Aviation Ancillary System and Related Business, and Aviation Engineering Services, offering products such as helicopters, trainer aircraft, regional jets, and aero-parts. It was founded on April 30, 2003, and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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AviChina Industry & Technology (2357 HK)

China-US Tension Escalation: Winners and Losers on Pelosi's Taiwan Visit

Chinese defense companies are the major winners in the escalation of the China-US tension following Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. We think Topsports,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

MS-China June 2026 Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review

MS-China June 2026 implementation is complete. We review the bridge window and first-week performance across 21 ADDs and 24 DELETEs vs 8 prior cycles.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Trump's Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies

The White House announced an Executive Order prohibiting "US persons" from "providing capital" to a list of "China Military Cos" which has been...

Travis Lundy

MS-China June 2026 Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

MSCI China enters implementation phase on June 1st. We provides an update to stock's performance and discussed implementation trades.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MS-China June 2026 Rebalance: Post-Announcement Trading Pattern Analysis

Following MSCI May 2026 announcement, we a look at the trading pattern of affected stocks for MSCI-China from historical perspective by overlaying...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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