Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

AviChina Industry & Technology H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As a PRC aviation/defense play, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a></strong>'s fundamentals are undemanding. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on AviChina are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


As a PRC aviation/defense play, AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)'s fundamentals are undemanding. 
Preceding my comments on AviChina are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As Rmb moved from appreciation in 1Q23 to depreciation in 2Q23, there is a total change in the beneficiaries discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-strategy-it-is-the-foreign-exchange-impact-stupid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99729" rel="noopener">China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid!</a> </li>
<li>The new beneficiaries are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-energy-engineering-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21017:1" rel="noopener">China Energy Engineering (3996 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK)</a> generated 20.2% of FY22 earnings from exchange gain as Rmb depreciated. Revenue from outside China rose 10% in 1H23 and accounted for 54.4% of total.  </li>
</ul>


As Rmb moved from appreciation in 1Q23 to depreciation in 2Q23, there is a total change in the beneficiaries discussed in China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid! 
The new beneficiaries are CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK), China Energy Engineering (3996 HK), China Communications Construction (1800 HK), Sinotrans (598 HK) and AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK). 

CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK) generated 20.2% of FY22 earnings from exchange gain as Rmb depreciated. Revenue from outside China rose 10% in 1H23 and accounted for 54.4% of total.  


China Strategy: The RMB Reversal Is Just Too Fast!

Equity Bottom-Up

AviChina Industry & Technology H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology (2357 HK)</a> remains cheap with 3-year earnings CAGR of 17.4% but only 11x PER. It also trades on 55% discount to value of its A-share subsidiaries.</li>
<li>Aggregate earnings for its four A-share listed subsidiaries grew a solid 26.8% in 1Q23, even faster than AviChina Industry's FY23F earnings growth of 21.5%. </li>
<li>China is expected to increase military spending to narrow the gap against the US going forward. AviChina stays best exposed to such growth in defense demand.</li>
</ul>



AviChina Industry &amp; Technology (2357 HK) remains cheap with 3-year earnings CAGR of 17.4% but only 11x PER. It also trades on 55% discount to value of its A-share subsidiaries.
Aggregate earnings for its four A-share listed subsidiaries grew a solid 26.8% in 1Q23, even faster than AviChina Industry's FY23F earnings growth of 21.5%. 
China is expected to increase military spending to narrow the gap against the US going forward. AviChina stays best exposed to such growth in defense demand.


AviChina Industry (2357 HK): Benefiting from the Geopolitical Turmoil

<ul>
<li>China's defense budget will reach Rmb1.55trn in 2023, a 7.2% YoY increase and up from 7.1% in 2022. This also equals to 1.22% of GDP, vs. 1.2% in 2022. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a> has the most direct exposure to China's aerospace and defense developments given its holdings in A-share defense stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avic-shenyang-aircraft-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12150:1" rel="noopener">Avic Shenyang Aircraft (600760 CH)</a> will benefit from its unique position as the key manufacturer of aircraft, parts and components for China's combat fighter fleet.</li>
</ul>


China's defense budget will reach Rmb1.55trn in 2023, a 7.2% YoY increase and up from 7.1% in 2022. This also equals to 1.22% of GDP, vs. 1.2% in 2022. 

AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK) has the most direct exposure to China's aerospace and defense developments given its holdings in A-share defense stocks.

Avic Shenyang Aircraft (600760 CH) will benefit from its unique position as the key manufacturer of aircraft, parts and components for China's combat fighter fleet.


China Aerospace & Defense Industry: Ways to Play the Rise in Defense Spending

<ul>
<li>To date, 52 companies listed in Hong Kong have sought the conversion of their PRC domestic (and unlisted foreign shares) into H-shares.</li>
<li>This mechanism, ostensibly, enables founders or major shareholders holding unlisted domestic shares to float (and sell) shares, improving a company's corporate governance and stock liquidity, ultimately increasing a company's valuation.</li>
<li>Or in the case of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-huarong-asset-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:968:1" rel="noopener">China Huarong Asset Management (2799 HK)</a></strong>, the conversion restored its minimum public float.</li>
</ul>


To date, 52 companies listed in Hong Kong have sought the conversion of their PRC domestic (and unlisted foreign shares) into H-shares.
This mechanism, ostensibly, enables founders or major shareholders holding unlisted domestic shares to float (and sell) shares, improving a company's corporate governance and stock liquidity, ultimately increasing a company's valuation.
Or in the case of China Huarong Asset Management (2799 HK), the conversion restored its minimum public float.


Full Circulation 2022 Update: China Huarong, YiChang HEC ChangJiang

China

AviChina Industry & Technology Co Ltd manufactures and sells aviation tools and aero-parts. The Company's main products include helicopters, regional aircrafts, trainers, general aircrafts, aero-parts and components and aero-electrical products.

AviChina Industry & Technology H (2357 HK)

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AviChina Industry & Technology H (2357 HK)

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Osbert Tang, CFA

AviChina Industry (2357 HK): Benefiting from the Geopolitical Turmoil

AviChina Industry trades on 55% discount to its A-share subsidiaries' value and overall 1Q23 earnings of these subsidiaries are solid at 26.8%. It...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Aerospace & Defense Industry: Ways to Play the Rise in Defense Spending

China's 7.2% YoY increase in defense spending budget will filter through to the business prospects of AviChina and AVIC Shenyang, given the rise in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Full Circulation 2022 Update: China Huarong, YiChang HEC ChangJiang

Full circulation, ostensibly, enables key shareholders holding unlisted domestic shares to float shares, improving corporate governance and stock...

David Blennerhassett

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