European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BMPS closed the re-open at 86.3% of Mediobanca (62.3% initial + ~24pts re-open); settlement 29 Sep. Super-majority secured enables extraordinary resolutions; MB remains listed below 90%/95% thresholds.</li>
<li>MB should hug 2.533×BMPS + €0.90 into 29 Sep; basis widened on flows but typically compresses. Sensitivity: each 1% move in BMPS shifts implied MB ~€0.20 (delta ≈2.533).</li>
<li>Trade: convergence hold long MB/short 2.533× BMPS into settlement; exit unless underwriting merger risk. For BMPS, lower dilution and cash outlay support the equity, tempered by integration and accumulation overhang.</li>
</ul>


BMPS closed the re-open at 86.3% of Mediobanca (62.3% initial + ~24pts re-open); settlement 29 Sep. Super-majority secured enables extraordinary resolutions; MB remains listed below 90%/95% thresholds.
MB should hug 2.533×BMPS + €0.90 into 29 Sep; basis widened on flows but typically compresses. Sensitivity: each 1% move in BMPS shifts implied MB ~€0.20 (delta ≈2.533).
Trade: convergence hold long MB/short 2.533× BMPS into settlement; exit unless underwriting merger risk. For BMPS, lower dilution and cash outlay support the equity, tempered by integration and accumulation overhang.


BMPS–Mediobanca: 86.3% Tendered — What Changes Now?

<ul>
<li>BMPS has 70.5% of Mediobanca after re-open progress (Reuters, 19 Sep). Window closes 22 Sep; settlement 29 Sep. Gross spread ~1.03% on 19 Sep close; convergence momentum and governance transition.</li>
<li>Super-Majority enables extraordinary resolutions; merger remains subject to ECB/SSM, Bank of Italy, and corporate approvals. Expect modest final-day tenders; MB to hug offer formula, with delta ≈2.533 to BMPS.</li>
<li>Trade: convergence hold into final results/29 Sep settlement; maintain tight 2.533 hedge and pre-set rebalance triggers. Directional BMPS bias constructive on lighter dilution/cash; monitor messaging, basis, and any on-market adds.</li>
</ul>


BMPS has 70.5% of Mediobanca after re-open progress (Reuters, 19 Sep). Window closes 22 Sep; settlement 29 Sep. Gross spread ~1.03% on 19 Sep close; convergence momentum and governance transition.
Super-Majority enables extraordinary resolutions; merger remains subject to ECB/SSM, Bank of Italy, and corporate approvals. Expect modest final-day tenders; MB to hug offer formula, with delta ≈2.533 to BMPS.
Trade: convergence hold into final results/29 Sep settlement; maintain tight 2.533 hedge and pre-set rebalance triggers. Directional BMPS bias constructive on lighter dilution/cash; monitor messaging, basis, and any on-market adds.


BMPS–Mediobanca: Super-Majority Secured; Final Day Setup

<ul>
<li>BMPS has secured control of Mediobanca following improved terms; the offer will briefly reopen in mid-September. Market pricing has tightened the spread, reflecting convergence momentum into settlement and governance changes.</li>
<li>Acceptance dynamics likely favor incremental tenders during the re-open window as control clarity rises and strategy signals firm. Catalysts cluster around board composition, formal results notices, and subsequent settlement milestones.</li>
<li>For risk-arb, positioning now focuses on convergence mechanics and disciplined hedging around headlines; sensitivity to bidder shares remains material while post-offer pathways may include on-market top-ups and medium-term threshold considerations.</li>
</ul>


BMPS has secured control of Mediobanca following improved terms; the offer will briefly reopen in mid-September. Market pricing has tightened the spread, reflecting convergence momentum into settlement and governance changes.
Acceptance dynamics likely favor incremental tenders during the re-open window as control clarity rises and strategy signals firm. Catalysts cluster around board composition, formal results notices, and subsequent settlement milestones.
For risk-arb, positioning now focuses on convergence mechanics and disciplined hedging around headlines; sensitivity to bidder shares remains material while post-offer pathways may include on-market top-ups and medium-term threshold considerations.


BMPS–Mediobanca: Control Secured; Re-Open Week Sets the Next Leg

<ul>
<li>BMPS raises terms to 2.533 BMPS shares plus €0.90 cash per Mediobanca share, waiving the two-thirds condition while retaining a 35% minimum—shifting sentiment to a modest, positive convergence setup.</li>
<li>Timeline tight: board review this week; acceptance deadline 8 September; results and settlement mid-September unless terms change, which could trigger re-opening and push closing toward late September or early October.</li>
<li>Best expression remains long Mediobanca, short 2.533× BMPS per share; a 1% BMPS move shifts implied consideration ~€0.19 (≈1% of MB), so maintain a disciplined hedge into catalysts and headlines.</li>
</ul>


BMPS raises terms to 2.533 BMPS shares plus €0.90 cash per Mediobanca share, waiving the two-thirds condition while retaining a 35% minimum—shifting sentiment to a modest, positive convergence setup.
Timeline tight: board review this week; acceptance deadline 8 September; results and settlement mid-September unless terms change, which could trigger re-opening and push closing toward late September or early October.
Best expression remains long Mediobanca, short 2.533× BMPS per share; a 1% BMPS move shifts implied consideration ~€0.19 (≈1% of MB), so maintain a disciplined hedge into catalysts and headlines.


BMPS–Mediobanca: Sweetener + Waiver Tighten the Spread

<ul>
<li>Mediobanca trades as a cheap option on a BMPS bump: limited downside, positive skew, and convergence momentum after Generali defence failed. Positioning risk/reward is asymmetric into the September deadline.</li>
<li>With BMPS paper implying little premium, spread tightness reflects embedded expectations of a bump. Investors effectively hold optionality: upside on improved terms, downside cushioned by franchise value and sector consolidation.</li>
<li>Regulatory overhang looks contained: ECB signed off, Rome aligned. Focus shifts to September 8 acceptance deadline, where pressure builds on BMPS to sweeten terms and avoid a messy partial outcome.</li>
</ul>


Mediobanca trades as a cheap option on a BMPS bump: limited downside, positive skew, and convergence momentum after Generali defence failed. Positioning risk/reward is asymmetric into the September deadline.
With BMPS paper implying little premium, spread tightness reflects embedded expectations of a bump. Investors effectively hold optionality: upside on improved terms, downside cushioned by franchise value and sector consolidation.
Regulatory overhang looks contained: ECB signed off, Rome aligned. Focus shifts to September 8 acceptance deadline, where pressure builds on BMPS to sweeten terms and avoid a messy partial outcome.


Mediobanca’s Failed Banca Generali Bid and Implications for BMPS’ Hostile Offer

Italy

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. provides retail and commercial banking services. The Bank offers leasing and factoring, corporate finance, asset management, insurance, mutual funds, and investment banking services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien (BMPS IM)

BMPS–Mediobanca: 86.3% Tendered — What Changes Now?

BMPS ends re-open at 86.3% of Mediobanca; settlement 29 Sep. MB to track 2.533×BMPS + €0.90 as basis compresses. Convergence long MB/short...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BMPS–Mediobanca: Super-Majority Secured; Final Day Setup

BMPS holds 70.5% of Mediobanca; tender ends 22 Sep, settlement 29 Sep. ~1% spread supports a convergence hold; merger path opens post-approvals....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BMPS–Mediobanca: Control Secured; Re-Open Week Sets the Next Leg

BMPS has secured control of Mediobanca; the offer reopens mid-September. The spread has tightened; focus shifts to convergence, governance changes,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BMPS–Mediobanca: Sweetener + Waiver Tighten the Spread

BMPS adds €0.90 cash to 2.533-share offer and waives supermajority, tightening the arb. With a Sept 8 deadline and clustered catalysts, favor a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Mediobanca’s Failed Banca Generali Bid and Implications for BMPS’ Hostile Offer

After shareholders killed the Generali defence, Mediobanca becomes pure optionality on a BMPS bump. The spread has tightened, but risk/reward...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)