Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd / Event-Driven

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)

<ul>
<li>There is, or perhaps, was, imbedded value via the cross-holding. However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Soul Patts (SOL AU)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brickworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2726:1" rel="noopener">Brickworks (BKW AU)</a>'s combined market cap has increased 18% or A$3.1bn since announcing their merger.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-battery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6513:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa Battery (6937 JP)</a> is a VERY low-priced MBO-like transaction. The pricing process is unacceptable. It is a take-under. It is BAD process. But it'll get done.</li>
<li>For a company that has consistently spilled red ink at the stub level, there is no justification why <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> would/should trade at a NAV premium.</li>
</ul>


There is, or perhaps, was, imbedded value via the cross-holding. However, Soul Patts (SOL AU) &amp; Brickworks (BKW AU)'s combined market cap has increased 18% or A$3.1bn since announcing their merger.

Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) is a VERY low-priced MBO-like transaction. The pricing process is unacceptable. It is a take-under. It is BAD process. But it'll get done.
For a company that has consistently spilled red ink at the stub level, there is no justification why PCCW Ltd (8 HK) would/should trade at a NAV premium.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Soul Patts/Brickworks, Furukawa Battery, PCCW, TPG Telecom

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Sabadell approves €3.1bn TSB sale and €0.50 dividend, enhancing standalone value and reducing downside in a deal-break scenario; BBVA’s unchanged offer now implies a –8.1% gross spread.</li>
<li>Spread has narrowed from –15.3% to –8.1%, as market reprices bump probability or resilient standalone outcome; dividend payout creates valuation floor, reshaping risk-reward for arbitrageurs.</li>
<li>Base case: BBVA must revise terms or risk rejection and deferred re-engagement; standalone plan is credible, capitalised, and shareholder-friendly, with payout and CET1 strength supporting defensive positioning.</li>
</ul>


Sabadell approves €3.1bn TSB sale and €0.50 dividend, enhancing standalone value and reducing downside in a deal-break scenario; BBVA’s unchanged offer now implies a –8.1% gross spread.
Spread has narrowed from –15.3% to –8.1%, as market reprices bump probability or resilient standalone outcome; dividend payout creates valuation floor, reshaping risk-reward for arbitrageurs.
Base case: BBVA must revise terms or risk rejection and deferred re-engagement; standalone plan is credible, capitalised, and shareholder-friendly, with payout and CET1 strength supporting defensive positioning.


BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

<ul>
<li>Given the METI extension on FEFTA review on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura (6957 JP)</a>, risks are slightly higher. &lt;¥5,900 was a good buy on an incremental basis. ¥5,970 is OK but not spectacular.</li>
<li>As expected (at least by me) - I Squared has withdrawn its Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Re: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a>, this "rescue package" announcement - ~HK$88.2bn - should come as no surprise, as the alternative situation (liquidation/bankruptcy) and the ensuing optics were not great.</li>
</ul>


Given the METI extension on FEFTA review on Shibaura (6957 JP), risks are slightly higher. &lt;¥5,900 was a good buy on an incremental basis. ¥5,970 is OK but not spectacular.
As expected (at least by me) - I Squared has withdrawn its Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK).
Re: New World Development (17 HK), this "rescue package" announcement - ~HK$88.2bn - should come as no surprise, as the alternative situation (liquidation/bankruptcy) and the ensuing optics were not great.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura, HKBN, NWD, Yichang HEC

<ul>
<li>Sabadell's TSB sale unlocks €3.4B in value and supports a €0.50/share special dividend, reducing appeal of BBVA’s current hostile bid.</li>
<li>BBVA maintains its offer despite regulatory constraints and limited synergy visibility for 3–5 years.</li>
<li>Options activity and share price suggest market expects either a bid bump or re-rating, with dividend yield softening downside.</li>
</ul>


Sabadell's TSB sale unlocks €3.4B in value and supports a €0.50/share special dividend, reducing appeal of BBVA’s current hostile bid.
BBVA maintains its offer despite regulatory constraints and limited synergy visibility for 3–5 years.
Options activity and share price suggest market expects either a bid bump or re-rating, with dividend yield softening downside.


BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

<ul>
<li>Abadell trades above BBVA’s offer, implying market expectations for either a bid bump or dividend windfall (€0.12–€0.24/share in one-off distributions) from the upcoming TSB sale.</li>
<li>Long SAB / short BBVA remains an attractive pair trade to capture deal asymmetry while hedging beta and political risk.</li>
<li>September options at €2.70 strike offer tactical setups: long calls for convex upside, puts for hedge, or synthetic longs for capital-efficient exposure.</li>
</ul>


Abadell trades above BBVA’s offer, implying market expectations for either a bid bump or dividend windfall (€0.12–€0.24/share in one-off distributions) from the upcoming TSB sale.
Long SAB / short BBVA remains an attractive pair trade to capture deal asymmetry while hedging beta and political risk.
September options at €2.70 strike offer tactical setups: long calls for convex upside, puts for hedge, or synthetic longs for capital-efficient exposure.


BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options

Spain

Banco de Sabadell SA attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services. The Bank offers mortgage, consumer, student, and building improvement loans, private banking services, and insurance, and sponsors Visa credit cards.  The Bank operates branches throughout Spain, elsewhere in Europe, the Caribbean, the Americas, and Asia.

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Banco De Sabadell SA (SAB SM)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Soul Patts/Brickworks, Furukawa Battery, PCCW, TPG Telecom

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

TSB sale and €0.50 dividend reshape Sabadell’s standalone value. With a –8.1% spread, BBVA’s offer looks stale. Market now pricing in a bump or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura, HKBN, NWD, Yichang HEC

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

TSB sale reshapes Sabadell’s story: BBVA’s bid looks stale, €0.50 dividend looms, and options imply upside. Long SAB / Short BBVA remains...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options

Sabadell trades above BBVA’s bid on expectations of a deal bump or dividend. With TSB monetisation ahead and liquid options in play, upside...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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