Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.</li>
<li>Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. </li>
<li>We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.
Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. 
We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. 


India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Adani Green Energy redeemed $750 million Holdco Notes, advancing its 50 GW renewable capacity target.</li>
<li>Jio Financial and BlackRock form a joint venture to offer investment advisory services in India.</li>
<li>Bank of Baroda raises INR 5,000 crore through infrastructure bonds, underscoring strong investor demand.</li>
</ul>


Adani Green Energy redeemed $750 million Holdco Notes, advancing its 50 GW renewable capacity target.
Jio Financial and BlackRock form a joint venture to offer investment advisory services in India.
Bank of Baroda raises INR 5,000 crore through infrastructure bonds, underscoring strong investor demand.


# 58 India Insight: Adani Green Redeemed Notes, Jio Financial & Blackrock JV, BoB Raises INR 5 Bn

<ul>
<li>CPI inflation receded to a 59-month low of 3.5%YoY in Jul'24, with food inflation abating to 5.1%YoY (from 8.4%YoY in Jun'24), as vegetable inflation fell to 6.8%YoY (from Jun'24's 29.3%YoY).</li>
<li>Whilst retaining its 6.5% policy rate on 8/8/24, RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jul-Sep'24, and 4.7%YoY in Oct-Dec'24; we expect 4.2%YoY and 4.3%YoY respectively, amid 8-10% above-normal monsoon rainfall.</li>
<li>The policy repo rate will likely decline 50bp by Dec'24 and a further 50bp to 5.5% by Jun'25. Rate sensitives like banks, auto-companies, NBFCs and property stocks will benefit. </li>
</ul>


CPI inflation receded to a 59-month low of 3.5%YoY in Jul'24, with food inflation abating to 5.1%YoY (from 8.4%YoY in Jun'24), as vegetable inflation fell to 6.8%YoY (from Jun'24's 29.3%YoY).
Whilst retaining its 6.5% policy rate on 8/8/24, RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jul-Sep'24, and 4.7%YoY in Oct-Dec'24; we expect 4.2%YoY and 4.3%YoY respectively, amid 8-10% above-normal monsoon rainfall.
The policy repo rate will likely decline 50bp by Dec'24 and a further 50bp to 5.5% by Jun'25. Rate sensitives like banks, auto-companies, NBFCs and property stocks will benefit. 


India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently eight pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and three sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently eight pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and three sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (7 Sep 2026)

<ul>
<li>What will be implication in case of weaker Modi &amp; BJP mandate?</li>
<li>Public Sector and State-Owned Bank Shares Plunge whole day after poor BJP tally during counting.</li>
<li>Improvement in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a>'s credit profile by FY25 and Higher RoCE for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-airtel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


What will be implication in case of weaker Modi &amp; BJP mandate?
Public Sector and State-Owned Bank Shares Plunge whole day after poor BJP tally during counting.
Improvement in Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)'s credit profile by FY25 and Higher RoCE for Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) and Reliance Industries (RIL IN) 


#7 India Insights: Weaker Modi Mandate, Plunging PSUs, Tata Steel Credit Profile, Reliance, Airtel

India

Bank of Baroda owns and operates commercial banks in India.  The Group's banks provide the traditional forms of banking services, including CD's, Credit Card services and a variety of car loans, in addition to gold banking and a range of insurance services.  The Group also owns IBU International Finance Limited, an international banking company in Hong Kong.

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Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)

India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

# 58 India Insight: Adani Green Redeemed Notes, Jio Financial & Blackrock JV, BoB Raises INR 5 Bn

Adani Green Energy, Jio Financial, BlackRock, and Bank of Baroda make significant financial moves in renewable energy, investment advisory, and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (7 Sep 2026)

Discover eight pair trade opportunities across four markets and three sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

#7 India Insights: Weaker Modi Mandate, Plunging PSUs, Tata Steel Credit Profile, Reliance, Airtel

Weaker Modi & BJP mandate leads to plunge in PSUs and state-owned bank shares, while Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, and Reliance Industries see credit...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

​With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

# 58 India Insight: Adani Green Redeemed Notes, Jio Financial & Blackrock JV, BoB Raises INR 5 Bn

​Adani Green Energy, Jio Financial, BlackRock, and Bank of Baroda make significant financial moves in renewable energy, investment advisory, and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

​CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (7 Sep 2026)

​Discover eight pair trade opportunities across four markets and three sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

#7 India Insights: Weaker Modi Mandate, Plunging PSUs, Tata Steel Credit Profile, Reliance, Airtel

​Weaker Modi & BJP mandate leads to plunge in PSUs and state-owned bank shares, while Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, and Reliance Industries see credit...

Sudarshan Bhandari

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Adani Green Energy, Jio Financial, BlackRock, and Bank of Baroda make significant financial moves in renewable energy, investment advisory, and...

CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...

Discover eight pair trade opportunities across four markets and three sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Weaker Modi & BJP mandate leads to plunge in PSUs and state-owned bank shares, while Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, and Reliance Industries see credit...