Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A long-short strategy with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank Of India</a> outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index</a> by 2.1% from 21 November to present.</li>
<li>The trade is supported by strong fundamentals, institutional and systemic aspects, and favorable technical factors.</li>
<li>The strategy is market-neutral with zero correlation to the Nifty Bank Index, enhanced by the yield pick-up from shorting the futures in a contango market.</li>
</ul>


A long-short strategy with HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and State Bank Of India outperformed the NSE Nifty Bank Index by 2.1% from 21 November to present.
The trade is supported by strong fundamentals, institutional and systemic aspects, and favorable technical factors.
The strategy is market-neutral with zero correlation to the Nifty Bank Index, enhanced by the yield pick-up from shorting the futures in a contango market.


Banking on Success: A Long-Short Strategy for Nifty Banks

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Bank of Baroda are buys due to deep value with positive returns catalysts; the sell on premium-valued Nubank is due to fundamental return headwinds emerging</li>
<li>In the Japanese banks we identify Mizuho and Resona as key beneficiaries of higher benchmark rates going forward, alongside very attractive valuations and supported by strategic share portfolios</li>
<li>CME Group is our 2025 pick in global exchanges, as a flow monster with a very strong competitive position; PagSeguro is the deep value, contrarian pick in payments</li>
</ul>


GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Bank of Baroda are buys due to deep value with positive returns catalysts; the sell on premium-valued Nubank is due to fundamental return headwinds emerging
In the Japanese banks we identify Mizuho and Resona as key beneficiaries of higher benchmark rates going forward, alongside very attractive valuations and supported by strategic share portfolios
CME Group is our 2025 pick in global exchanges, as a flow monster with a very strong competitive position; PagSeguro is the deep value, contrarian pick in payments


EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

<ul>
<li>Our positive focus remains on three smaller cap Indian banks, namely Bandhan, Baroda and Union Bank of India (UBI); we stay negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra</li>
<li>Bandhan has its NPL challenges, but its pre-provision returns have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains our favourite and UBI has delivered better profitability and credit quality</li>
<li>Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns continue to erode; ICICI is on premium valuations and we expect credit costs to go higher</li>
</ul>


Our positive focus remains on three smaller cap Indian banks, namely Bandhan, Baroda and Union Bank of India (UBI); we stay negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra
Bandhan has its NPL challenges, but its pre-provision returns have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains our favourite and UBI has delivered better profitability and credit quality
Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns continue to erode; ICICI is on premium valuations and we expect credit costs to go higher


Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Buys on Select, Value Based Smaller Caps

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aadhar-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32152:1" rel="noopener">Aadhar Housing Finance</a> raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Aadhar Housing Finance raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.
AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup -PE Owner Is up 5x, with US$500m Lockup Expiry Soon

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Asset Quality to remain stable: BoB has seen a slight inch-up in SMA1 and SMA2 levels during the quarter, mainly owing to 2 state PSU accounts.</li><li>However, the management does not expect any challenge on these accounts and expects them to pull-back and become standard at the earliest.</li><li>The management also indicated that BoB is not seeing any slippages from any state or central PSU. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asset Quality to remain stable: BoB has seen a slight inch-up in SMA1 and SMA2 levels during the quarter, mainly owing to 2 state PSU accounts.However, the management does not expect any challenge on these accounts and expects them to pull-back and become standard at the earliest.The management also indicated that BoB is not seeing any slippages from any state or central PSU. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank of Baroda - Earnings Beat Led by One-Off, RoA Delivery of 1+% to Continue!

India

Bank of Baroda owns and operates commercial banks in India.  The Group's banks provide the traditional forms of banking services, including CD's, Credit Card services and a variety of car loans, in addition to gold banking and a range of insurance services.  The Group also owns IBU International Finance Limited, an international banking company in Hong Kong.

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Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)

Banking on Success: A Long-Short Strategy for Nifty Banks

Long-short strategy with zero correlation to the NSE Nifty Bank Index with yield pick-up. Trade rationale supported by strong fundamentals,...

Gaudenz Schneider

EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...

Victor Galliano

Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Buys on Select, Value Based Smaller Caps

We stick with our value relative to returns based calls on Indian banks. Positive on smaller caps Baroda, Bandhan, UBI; negative on ICICI Bank and...

Victor Galliano

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup -PE Owner Is up 5x, with US$500m Lockup Expiry Soon

Aadhar Housing Finance raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set...

Sumeet Singh

Bank of Baroda - Earnings Beat Led by One-Off, RoA Delivery of 1+% to Continue!

Asset Quality to remain stable: BoB has seen a slight inch-up in SMA1 and SMA2 levels during the quarter, mainly owing to 2 state PSU accounts.

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Banking on Success: A Long-Short Strategy for Nifty Banks

​Long-short strategy with zero correlation to the NSE Nifty Bank Index with yield pick-up. Trade rationale supported by strong fundamentals,...

Gaudenz Schneider

EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

​Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...

Victor Galliano

Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Buys on Select, Value Based Smaller Caps

​We stick with our value relative to returns based calls on Indian banks. Positive on smaller caps Baroda, Bandhan, UBI; negative on ICICI Bank and...

Victor Galliano

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup -PE Owner Is up 5x, with US$500m Lockup Expiry Soon

Aadhar Housing Finance raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set...

Sumeet Singh

Bank of Baroda - Earnings Beat Led by One-Off, RoA Delivery of 1+% to Continue!

Asset Quality to remain stable: BoB has seen a slight inch-up in SMA1 and SMA2 levels during the quarter, mainly owing to 2 state PSU accounts.

Axis Direct

Long-short strategy with zero correlation to the NSE Nifty Bank Index with yield pick-up. Trade rationale supported by strong fundamentals,...

Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...

We stick with our value relative to returns based calls on Indian banks. Positive on smaller caps Baroda, Bandhan, UBI; negative on ICICI Bank and...