Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>It is rare for bad loans to rise gradually as they peak.</li><li>In most all cases the rise of NPLs and corresponding credit costs is radical.</li><li>It is not steady and calm, in the throes of an NPL cycle.</li><li>The peak of credit costs can be well over 5x lows, and unlike typical forecasts.</li><li>With the signals being sent from Beijing, it suggests we are on the precipice of a radical rise in banks&rsquo; bad loans and associated credit costs.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul>

It is rare for bad loans to rise gradually as they peak.In most all cases the rise of NPLs and corresponding credit costs is radical.It is not steady and calm, in the throes of an NPL cycle.The peak of credit costs can be well over 5x lows, and unlike typical forecasts.With the signals being sent from Beijing, it suggests we are on the precipice of a radical rise in banks&rsquo; bad loans and associated credit costs.&nbsp;&nbsp;

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-energy-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35843:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)</a> recently qualified for the selection list from the Energy sector and has experienced a price surge of over 200% in the last 12 months.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-energy-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35843:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)</a> remains ranked at or above 25 on 27 February, it achieves fast-entry into STOXXEurope50 at the March 2026 quarterly review.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/london-stock-exchange-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22034:1" rel="noopener">London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN)</a> is currently the lowest‑ranked constituent and therefore the most likely to be deleted from the index and replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-energy-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35843:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR) recently qualified for the selection list from the Energy sector and has experienced a price surge of over 200% in the last 12 months.
If Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR) remains ranked at or above 25 on 27 February, it achieves fast-entry into STOXXEurope50 at the March 2026 quarterly review.

London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN) is currently the lowest‑ranked constituent and therefore the most likely to be deleted from the index and replaced by Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR).


Siemens Energy (ENR GR): Fast-Entry Potential into STOXXEurope50 in Mar26

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-energy-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35843:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)</a> was omitted from STOXX Europe50 as it had been failing the coverage threshold in the Energy sector.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-energy-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35843:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)</a> surged ~20% over the last month and is now passing the threshold, making it the top addition candidate replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/diageo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:977:1" rel="noopener">Diageo Plc (DGE LN)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barclays-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1121:1" rel="noopener">Barclays PLC (BARC LN)</a> is the second addition candidate currently replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/london-stock-exchange-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22034:1" rel="noopener">London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN)</a> as they are near the entry and exit ranks, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR) was omitted from STOXX Europe50 as it had been failing the coverage threshold in the Energy sector.

Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR) surged ~20% over the last month and is now passing the threshold, making it the top addition candidate replacing Diageo Plc (DGE LN).

Barclays PLC (BARC LN) is the second addition candidate currently replacing London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN) as they are near the entry and exit ranks, respectively.


Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR): STOXX Europe50 Qualification from Energy Sector

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
  <li>Barclays' diversified business model, with a UK-centric retail and commercial bank (Barclays UK) and a transatlantic investment bank (Barclays International), provides a balanced revenue stream, though the investment bank introduces earnings volatility.</li>
  <li>A new strategic plan announced in February 2024 aims to simplify the bank, cut £2 billion in costs, and return at least £10 billion to shareholders by 2026, targeting a Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) of over 12%.</li>
  <li>While the bank is demonstrating strong growth and resilience, it faces headwinds from a challenging macroeconomic environment, intense competition, and the persistent challenge of improving returns in its capital-intensive investment banking division.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  Barclays' diversified business model, with a UK-centric retail and commercial bank (Barclays UK) and a transatlantic investment bank (Barclays International), provides a balanced revenue stream, though the investment bank introduces earnings volatility.
  A new strategic plan announced in February 2024 aims to simplify the bank, cut £2 billion in costs, and return at least £10 billion to shareholders by 2026, targeting a Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) of over 12%.
  While the bank is demonstrating strong growth and resilience, it faces headwinds from a challenging macroeconomic environment, intense competition, and the persistent challenge of improving returns in its capital-intensive investment banking division.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Barclays PLC (BARC LN) - Sep 2025

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The main forecasted additions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rheinmetall-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21700:1" rel="noopener">Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR)</a> as they are both surpassing the entry rank.</li>
<li>The main forecasted deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercedes-benz-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21602:1" rel="noopener">Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/basf-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21585:1" rel="noopener">BASF (BAS GR)</a> as they are both below the exit rank.</li>
<li>The highest-ranked among <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-bank-ag-40d2d02f-a52f-4d36-a86f-79c59c4f0f17" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:526:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Bank (DBK GR)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bae-systems-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21825:1" rel="noopener">BAE Systems (BA/ LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barclays-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1121:1" rel="noopener">Barclays (BARC LN)</a> may replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/diageo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:977:1" rel="noopener">Diageo Plc (DGE LN)</a> if its price falls further.</li>
</ul>


The main forecasted additions are Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM) and Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR) as they are both surpassing the entry rank.
The main forecasted deletions are Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR) and BASF (BAS GR) as they are both below the exit rank.
The highest-ranked among Deutsche Bank (DBK GR), BAE Systems (BA/ LN) and Barclays (BARC LN) may replace Diageo Plc (DGE LN) if its price falls further.


STOXX Europe50 September 2025 Forecast: BBVA & RHM Set to Join, BAS & MBG to Exit

United Kingdom

Barclays is a British multinational universal bank headquartered in London, England. It provides a wide range of financial services including retail banking, corporate banking, wealth management, and investment banking. The company serves individual customers, small and medium-sized businesses, and large corporate clients globally. Barclays traces its origins to goldsmith banking in London, founded in 1690.

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Barclays (BARC LN)

China's NPL Growth will be Radical

It is rare for bad loans to rise gradually as they peak. In most all cases the rise of NPLs and corresponding credit costs is radical. It is not...

Daniel Tabbush

Siemens Energy (ENR GR): Fast-Entry Potential into STOXXEurope50 in Mar26

ENR GR is now projected to replace DGE LN rather than LSEG LN in STOXXEurope50 in March, following DGE’s 16% price drop over the past two days....

Dimitris Ioannidis

Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR): STOXX Europe50 Qualification from Energy Sector

Siemens Energy (ENR GR) is set to be added to STOXX Europe50 in September 2026 after passing the Energy sector coverage threshold, potentially...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Primer: Barclays PLC (BARC LN) - Sep 2025

Barclays' diversified business model, with a UK-centric retail and commercial bank (Barclays UK) and a transatlantic investment bank (Barclays...

αSK Primers

STOXX Europe50 September 2025 Forecast: BBVA & RHM Set to Join, BAS & MBG to Exit

Main forecasted additions are BBVA and RHM, while MBG and BAS are the main forecasted deletions. DBK , BA., and BARC are potential replacement...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China's NPL Growth will be Radical

It is rare for bad loans to rise gradually as they peak. In most all cases the rise of NPLs and corresponding credit costs is radical. It is not...

Daniel Tabbush

Siemens Energy (ENR GR): Fast-Entry Potential into STOXXEurope50 in Mar26

ENR GR is now projected to replace DGE LN rather than LSEG LN in STOXXEurope50 in March, following DGE’s 16% price drop over the past two days....

Dimitris Ioannidis

Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR): STOXX Europe50 Qualification from Energy Sector

​Siemens Energy (ENR GR) is set to be added to STOXX Europe50 in September 2026 after passing the Energy sector coverage threshold, potentially...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Primer: Barclays PLC (BARC LN) - Sep 2025

Barclays' diversified business model, with a UK-centric retail and commercial bank (Barclays UK) and a transatlantic investment bank (Barclays...

αSK Primers

STOXX Europe50 September 2025 Forecast: BBVA & RHM Set to Join, BAS & MBG to Exit

​Main forecasted additions are BBVA and RHM, while MBG and BAS are the main forecasted deletions. DBK , BA., and BARC are potential replacement...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Siemens Energy (ENR GR) is set to be added to STOXX Europe50 in September 2026 after passing the Energy sector coverage threshold, potentially...

Main forecasted additions are BBVA and RHM, while MBG and BAS are the main forecasted deletions. DBK , BA., and BARC are potential replacement...