Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 March 2025 rebalance is today. The ADD is  big, with more to buy later. The SELL is a really big sell in terms of float. </li>
<li>The Sell, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a>, means Max Real World Float doubles. It's like a huge offering, with warning.</li>
<li>There's a big cap trade on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> where timing is not on its side, leaving US$2bn to buy in funding. 25 names at 0.4x ADV to buy.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 March 2025 rebalance is today. The ADD is  big, with more to buy later. The SELL is a really big sell in terms of float. 
The Sell, Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP), means Max Real World Float doubles. It's like a huge offering, with warning.
There's a big cap trade on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) where timing is not on its side, leaving US$2bn to buy in funding. 25 names at 0.4x ADV to buy.


Nikkei 225 Mar25 Rebal - A Big Buy With Buying Shadow, A Bigger Sell, And $2bn of Funding Flows

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Thursday and Friday. Or not.</li>
<li>The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.</li>
<li>Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? Well read on!</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Thursday and Friday. Or not.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? Well read on!


The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 31 March.</li>
<li>Since announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> stock is up with cumulative excess volume increasing, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a> is lower on a much bigger increase in cumulative excess volume.</li>
<li>Some of the forecast adds and deletes have moved as one would expect, but positioning for the September rebalance could lead to reversals over the next few weeks and months.</li>
</ul>



BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) at the close of trading on 31 March.
Since announcement, BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) stock is up with cumulative excess volume increasing, while Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP) is lower on a much bigger increase in cumulative excess volume.
Some of the forecast adds and deletes have moved as one would expect, but positioning for the September rebalance could lead to reversals over the next few weeks and months.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Positioning With a Few Days to Implementation

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has been in a paralyzed trend since August 2024. Then at the end of February 2025 it started to correct.</li>
<li>As explained by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> the index rebalance on March 5th, 2025 was a bit unexpected and minimal in terms of changes.</li>
<li>The index bottomed 1 week after the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review, and then started a rally, quite modest for now which could be signaling short-term tactical weakness.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has been in a paralyzed trend since August 2024. Then at the end of February 2025 it started to correct.
As explained by Travis Lundy and Brian Freitas the index rebalance on March 5th, 2025 was a bit unexpected and minimal in terms of changes.
The index bottomed 1 week after the March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review, and then started a rally, quite modest for now which could be signaling short-term tactical weakness.


Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Did Trump do <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CKH (1 HK)</a> a solid, convincing them to sell assets that have profited from international trade growth, just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on anything that moves?</li>
<li>An OK package for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>. Not perfect. SEI IPO's a bit dodgy. It may be designed to spur ACT into action, but isn't an awful fallback.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill (3978 JP)</a>'s Offer bumped.  If you want to make sure this deal doesn't get done, do the things you need to do to make sure it doesn't get done.</li>
</ul>


Did Trump do CKH (1 HK) a solid, convincing them to sell assets that have profited from international trade growth, just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on anything that moves?
An OK package for Seven &amp; I (3382 JP). Not perfect. SEI IPO's a bit dodgy. It may be designed to spur ACT into action, but isn't an awful fallback.

Macromill (3978 JP)'s Offer bumped.  If you want to make sure this deal doesn't get done, do the things you need to do to make sure it doesn't get done.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Cheung Kong, Macromill, China National Building Material, Canvest

Japan

Baycurrent Inc. offers comprehensive consulting services in a wide variety of industries. The Company provides business strategy consulting, information technology consulting, information technology integration, and other services. Baycurrent provides its services throughout Japan.

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Baycurrent (6532 JP)

Nikkei 225 Mar25 Rebal - A Big Buy With Buying Shadow, A Bigger Sell, And $2bn of Funding Flows

The Nikkei 225 rebalance - all the data for all the flows. There will be buying overhang on Baycurrent as it gets upweighted in 6mos, post-delete...

Travis Lundy

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

History shows (see Discussion Point) that "the right trade" is to be outright long TOPIX from today at the close to sell Friday (dividend ex-date)...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Positioning With a Few Days to Implementation

Baycurrent could follow Nitori's playbook. Mitsubishi Logistics could drop some more. Kokusai is underperforming the SOX. Okuma and Tokuyama are up...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Outlook After the Mar25 Rebalance

The March 25 Index rebalance is approaching, the index appears oversold according to our models, this insight is quite timely in predicting a...

Nico Rosti

Last Week in Event SPACE: Cheung Kong, Macromill, China National Building Material, Canvest

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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