Dry Bulk Commodity Market Insights, DBX Commodities Limited

DBX Commodities

Dry Bulk Commodity Market Insights

DBX Commodities Limited

DBX provides the most accurate and comprehensive real-time data and insights for dry bulk commodities based on satellite imagery and intelligence.

Alex CLAUDE, an expert in commodity tech with 15 years experience in the commodity trading industry, teamed up with the Signal Group in 2020 and started DBX. 

Our product is the result of a unique combination of domain and technological expertise. We offer the most comprehensive, accurate and deepest research analytics of the dry bulk commodity market: coal, iron ore, alumina, bauxite, sugar, wheat, soybeans and soymeal.

Commodities

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<li>
Fundamental supply &amp; demand outlook for iron ore: Neutral to Bearish
</li>
<li>
DBX Outlook: Short-Term Price Weakness Amid Export Rebound and Soft Demand
</li>
<li>
Australian iron ore exports plummeted to 60.6 million tonnes in February, the lowest since 2020, due to Tropical Cyclone Zelia, but DBX expects a recovery to 75 million tonnes in March as conditions normalize.
</li>
</ul>



Fundamental supply &amp; demand outlook for iron ore: Neutral to Bearish


DBX Outlook: Short-Term Price Weakness Amid Export Rebound and Soft Demand


Australian iron ore exports plummeted to 60.6 million tonnes in February, the lowest since 2020, due to Tropical Cyclone Zelia, but DBX expects a recovery to 75 million tonnes in March as conditions normalize.



Global Iron Ore Fundamentals (March 2025)

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: In Australia, currently five pair trade opportunities persist across four sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: In Australia, currently five pair trade opportunities persist across four sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (16 Sep 2026)

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Mixed steel prices reflected short-term boosts from rising hot metal output and policy support, offset by lingering property sector woes, trade uncertainties, and structural market challenges.</li>
<li>IO prices consolidated and closed slightly above the 200-day DMA indicating the strengthening of the bullish trend. Bulls risk facing a consolidation or downward correction from these levels. </li>
<li>Managed Money, Physicals participants &amp; Others are net short with 129.1k, 5.1k &amp; 18.6k lots respectively across all F&amp;O expiries. Managed Money decreased net shorts while FIIs decreased net longs.</li>
</ul>


Mixed steel prices reflected short-term boosts from rising hot metal output and policy support, offset by lingering property sector woes, trade uncertainties, and structural market challenges.
IO prices consolidated and closed slightly above the 200-day DMA indicating the strengthening of the bullish trend. Bulls risk facing a consolidation or downward correction from these levels. 
Managed Money, Physicals participants &amp; Others are net short with 129.1k, 5.1k &amp; 18.6k lots respectively across all F&amp;O expiries. Managed Money decreased net shorts while FIIs decreased net longs.


Iron Ore Weekly TA Review [2025/04]: Continued Bullishness Pre-CNY

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 7th September, published on the 11th September.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.1bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified Metals". Net shorts iincreased A$1bn week-on-week.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">CBA (CBA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">National Australia Bank (NAB AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 7th September, published on the 11th September.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.1bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified Metals". Net shorts iincreased A$1bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: CBA (CBA AU), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Westpac Banking (WBC AU), Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), and National Australia Bank (NAB AU).


Aussie Shorts [7 Sep 2026]: CBA, Rio Tinto, Westpac, Sigma Healthcare, NAB, Energy Fuels, PDI Gold

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and six sectors. 
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

 Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and six sectors. 


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (14 Sep 2026)

Australia

BHP is an Australian multinational mining and metals company that extracts, processes, and markets iron ore, copper, and metallurgical coal, and is developing a potash business. It is one of the world's largest mining companies by market capitalization. The company was founded in August 1885 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

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BHP (BHP LN)

Global Iron Ore Fundamentals (March 2025)

Fundamental supply & demand outlook for iron ore: Neutral to Bearish. DBX Outlook: Short-Term Price Weakness Amid Export Rebound and Soft Demand

DBX Commodities

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (16 Sep 2026)

Discover five pair trade opportunities across four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Iron Ore Weekly TA Review [2025/04]: Continued Bullishness Pre-CNY

Steel prices face short-term boosts from rising hot metal output and policy support. IO prices show bullish trend strengthening pre-CNY but risks...

Mint Finance

Aussie Shorts [7 Sep 2026]: CBA, Rio Tinto, Westpac, Sigma Healthcare, NAB, Energy Fuels, PDI Gold

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.1bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified...

David Blennerhassett

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (14 Sep 2026)

Discover ten pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Iron Ore Fundamentals (March 2025)

Fundamental supply & demand outlook for iron ore: Neutral to Bearish. DBX Outlook: Short-Term Price Weakness Amid Export Rebound and Soft Demand

DBX Commodities

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (16 Sep 2026)

​Discover five pair trade opportunities across four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Iron Ore Weekly TA Review [2025/04]: Continued Bullishness Pre-CNY

​Steel prices face short-term boosts from rising hot metal output and policy support. IO prices show bullish trend strengthening pre-CNY but risks...

Mint Finance

Aussie Shorts [7 Sep 2026]: CBA, Rio Tinto, Westpac, Sigma Healthcare, NAB, Energy Fuels, PDI Gold

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.1bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified...

David Blennerhassett

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (14 Sep 2026)

​Discover ten pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Discover five pair trade opportunities across four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Steel prices face short-term boosts from rising hot metal output and policy support. IO prices show bullish trend strengthening pre-CNY but risks...

Discover ten pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.