Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BHP's H2/25 results were strong but inline, boosted mainly by the copper segment, including precious metals byproducts, with light iron ore growth and a coal contraction </li>
<li>However, we are not convinced the copper rally can continue, with the price range bound and volatile for two months, while the iron price has already started to turn over  </li>
<li>We are skeptical of major earnings and target upgrades for many megacap miners recently, while our BHP valuation, -26% below the price, remains roughly unchanged</li>
</ul>


BHP's H2/25 results were strong but inline, boosted mainly by the copper segment, including precious metals byproducts, with light iron ore growth and a coal contraction 
However, we are not convinced the copper rally can continue, with the price range bound and volatile for two months, while the iron price has already started to turn over  
We are skeptical of major earnings and target upgrades for many megacap miners recently, while our BHP valuation, -26% below the price, remains roughly unchanged


BHP: Copper Rules Results But Still Risks To Rally

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

<ul><li>BHP Group's first half copper earnings exceeded those of iron ore for the first time, with a much lauded silver deal as unexpected bonus.</li><li> BHP&rsquo;s copper earnings exceed iron ore for the first time First half dividend significantly above forecasts Silver streaming deal the highlight Could a gold streaming deal be next?</li></ul>

BHP Group's first half copper earnings exceeded those of iron ore for the first time, with a much lauded silver deal as unexpected bonus. BHP&rsquo;s copper earnings exceed iron ore for the first time First half dividend significantly above forecasts Silver streaming deal the highlight Could a gold streaming deal be next?

BHP Crowns Itself The Asset Savvy Copper King

<ul>
<li>Operational results for calendar Q4/25 (fiscal Q2/26) were mixed, with growth yoy in iron ore output, a decline for copper, and coal split, with energy jumping, but steelmaking down </li>
<li>With BHP finally commenting on the iron ore ban in the results, in this report we cover its development so far and the shifting balance of power in the sector </li>
<li>We see risks to iron ore and copper prices, with the former already declining and recent moves in the latter looking precarious, while valuations are getting moderately expensive </li>
</ul>


Operational results for calendar Q4/25 (fiscal Q2/26) were mixed, with growth yoy in iron ore output, a decline for copper, and coal split, with energy jumping, but steelmaking down 
With BHP finally commenting on the iron ore ban in the results, in this report we cover its development so far and the shifting balance of power in the sector 
We see risks to iron ore and copper prices, with the former already declining and recent moves in the latter looking precarious, while valuations are getting moderately expensive 


Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.</li>
<li>Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.</li>
<li>The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).</li>
</ul>


LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.
Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.
The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).


Copper: LME Cash-3M Spread Eases, COPX Sees Outflows and HCL’s 6% OFS Begins

<ul>
<li>Chinese steel mill margins are deteriorating, raising the risk of August maintenance, lower hot-metal output and weaker iron ore demand.</li>
<li>CMRG is tightening control over China’s iron ore procurement, with restrictions hitting Australian miners and contributing to weaker shipments.</li>
<li>Across SLX’s top 10 holdings, 7/10 beat EPS estimates, while 8/10 carry positive average analyst price target upside.</li>
</ul>


Chinese steel mill margins are deteriorating, raising the risk of August maintenance, lower hot-metal output and weaker iron ore demand.
CMRG is tightening control over China’s iron ore procurement, with restrictions hitting Australian miners and contributing to weaker shipments.
Across SLX’s top 10 holdings, 7/10 beat EPS estimates, while 8/10 carry positive average analyst price target upside.


Iron Ore: Weak Steel Margins, CMRG Pressure and SLX Set Up a Tug-Of-War

Australia

BHP is an Australian multinational mining and metals company that extracts, processes, and markets iron ore, copper, and metallurgical coal, and is developing a potash business. It is one of the world's largest mining companies by market capitalization. The company was founded in August 1885 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

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BHP (BHP LN)

BHP: Copper Rules Results But Still Risks To Rally

Copper was the big driver of strong, inline, H2/25 results, with iron ore slow and coal declining, but we still see risks to copper and iron ore...

Graeme Cunningham

BHP Crowns Itself The Asset Savvy Copper King

BHP Group's first half copper earnings exceeded those of iron ore for the first time, with a much lauded silver deal as unexpected bonus. BHP’s...

FNArena

BHP: The China Iron Ore Ban (So Far...)

We cover the China ban and shifting balance of power in the iron ore sector after BHP finally commented on the issue in its strong Q4/25...

Graeme Cunningham

Copper: LME Cash-3M Spread Eases, COPX Sees Outflows and HCL’s 6% OFS Begins

Copper’s physical market remains tight despite easing backwardation, while bullish options positioning contrasts with trimmed managed-money longs...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore: Weak Steel Margins, CMRG Pressure and SLX Set Up a Tug-Of-War

CMRG is squeezing Australian iron ore miners, but without deeper Chinese steel production cuts or stronger stimulus, a sustained iron ore rebound...

Mint Finance

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