Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A volatile metal price has boosted the risk for BHP’s remaining strong major segment, copper, while the other two key divisions, iron ore and coal, are still sluggish</li>
<li>We forecast a weaker 2025E-2026E than consensus, given the risk that global demand disappoints and continues to pressure metal prices for BHP’s three key segments</li>
<li>Our conservative valuation puts BHP near fair value, and while the P/B of 2.4x is only moderately elevated versus recent history, we see the risks weighted to the downside</li>
</ul>


A volatile metal price has boosted the risk for BHP’s remaining strong major segment, copper, while the other two key divisions, iron ore and coal, are still sluggish
We forecast a weaker 2025E-2026E than consensus, given the risk that global demand disappoints and continues to pressure metal prices for BHP’s three key segments
Our conservative valuation puts BHP near fair value, and while the P/B of 2.4x is only moderately elevated versus recent history, we see the risks weighted to the downside


BHP: Last Strong Driver (Copper) Turns Volatile

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul>
<li>BHP stock affected by fat finger incident causing rapid drop in share price</li>
<li>Ex dividend date for BHP, investors may miss out on dividend payment if purchased on or after ex dividend date</li>
<li>Order for 750,000 BHP shares at higher price causes market disruption, shows impact of large trades on stock price fluctuations.</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


BHP stock affected by fat finger incident causing rapid drop in share price
Ex dividend date for BHP, investors may miss out on dividend payment if purchased on or after ex dividend date
Order for 750,000 BHP shares at higher price causes market disruption, shows impact of large trades on stock price fluctuations.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Quickest Way to Lose a Few Million Dollars

<ul><li>Discussion on recent acquisitions and earnings highlights in the resource sector</li><li>Focus on BHP's South Australian copper business and potential growth opportunities</li><li>Analysis of return on capital employed for different assets within BHP's portfolio</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Discussion on recent acquisitions and earnings highlights in the resource sectorFocus on BHP's South Australian copper business and potential growth opportunitiesAnalysis of return on capital employed for different assets within BHP's portfolioThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul><li>BHP plans for a small increase in uranium production at Olympic Dam, with speculation on the impact</li><li>Interview with Grant Isaac from Cameco sheds light on the uranium market trends</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

BHP plans for a small increase in uranium production at Olympic Dam, with speculation on the impactInterview with Grant Isaac from Cameco sheds light on the uranium market trendsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Uranium Wild Predictions and which Base Metals Restart will Make Bank First?

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Jan-Mar 2025 shipments for Australian miners <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">RIO AU</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP AU</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">FMG AU</a>  were sluggish, registering -9.3%,-4.3%, and 0.4% YoY, respectively, due to inclement weather.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a> shipments were comparatively better, up 3.6% YoY to 66.1 mn tons. The big four kept their annual production guidance intact. </li>
<li>Positive news came from Vales China clients, as blast furnace utilization passed 90%, and some mills are now making cash profits of 200 RMB/ton. </li>
</ul>


Jan-Mar 2025 shipments for Australian miners RIO AU, BHP AU, and FMG AU  were sluggish, registering -9.3%,-4.3%, and 0.4% YoY, respectively, due to inclement weather.

Vale (VALE US) shipments were comparatively better, up 3.6% YoY to 66.1 mn tons. The big four kept their annual production guidance intact. 
Positive news came from Vales China clients, as blast furnace utilization passed 90%, and some mills are now making cash profits of 200 RMB/ton. 


Gleanings From The Q1 CY25 Shipments Conference Calls Of Vale, Rio, BHP, and FMG

Australia

BHP Billiton Limited is an international resources company.  The Company's principal business lines are mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining.  Dually-listed company with BLT LN.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP US)

BHP: Last Strong Driver (Copper) Turns Volatile

BHP's last remaining strong division, copper, is at risk from a recently volatile metal price, while its other two key segments iron ore and copper...

Graeme Cunningham

The Quickest Way to Lose a Few Million Dollars

Industry expert sees potential rebound in lithium industry, with a new lithium IPO converting to gold and high expectations for companies with gold...

Money of Mine

Did BHP Blow $10B Buying Oz?

The discussion covers topics such as wearing the same shirt multiple days, company evolution, upcoming money raising efforts, BHP's dividend...

Money of Mine

Uranium Wild Predictions and which Base Metals Restart will Make Bank First?

BHP plans for a small increase in uranium production at Olympic Dam, with speculation on the impact Interview with Grant Isaac from Cameco sheds...

Money of Mine

Gleanings From The Q1 CY25 Shipments Conference Calls Of Vale, Rio, BHP, and FMG

We update the operational/shipment performance of the iron ore majors and outline the importance of tracking their numbers.

Sameer Taneja

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