Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Upstream tightness is real, with TC/RC turning negative and sulphuric acid availability tightening, but refined supply continues to expand, preventing system-wide tightening. </li>
<li>Demand growth c.1.5–1.6% (2026 vs 2.1% prior), reducing absorption capacity. The balance is shifting back to surplus, with +96kt (2026) and c.300-400kt (2027), even after disruptions.</li>
<li>Inventories (&gt;1.0mt peak; 745kt LME+SHFE in Mar, +56% m/m), muted premiums (US$30–60/t vs &gt;US$100/t in tight markets), and contango (–US$20/t cash–3M) confirm supply is delayed, not removed.</li>
</ul>


Upstream tightness is real, with TC/RC turning negative and sulphuric acid availability tightening, but refined supply continues to expand, preventing system-wide tightening. 
Demand growth c.1.5–1.6% (2026 vs 2.1% prior), reducing absorption capacity. The balance is shifting back to surplus, with +96kt (2026) and c.300-400kt (2027), even after disruptions.
Inventories (&gt;1.0mt peak; 745kt LME+SHFE in Mar, +56% m/m), muted premiums (US$30–60/t vs &gt;US$100/t in tight markets), and contango (–US$20/t cash–3M) confirm supply is delayed, not removed.


Copper: Acid Bottlenecks Persist, but Surplus Is Re-Emerging

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Rising seaborne supply and weak Chinese steel margins dragged iron ore lower, though resilient blast furnace activity continue to offer support.</li>
<li>BHP slows Pilbara decarbonisation while Fortescue accelerates ahead, highlighting a widening divide in Australia’s iron ore transition strategy.</li>
<li>Iron ore’s downtrend remains intact after a bearish crossover, though prices nearing key support could trigger a short-term rebound attempt.</li>
</ul>


Rising seaborne supply and weak Chinese steel margins dragged iron ore lower, though resilient blast furnace activity continue to offer support.
BHP slows Pilbara decarbonisation while Fortescue accelerates ahead, highlighting a widening divide in Australia’s iron ore transition strategy.
Iron ore’s downtrend remains intact after a bearish crossover, though prices nearing key support could trigger a short-term rebound attempt.


Iron Ore Sentiment Stays Fragile but a Key Technical Support Is Cushioning the Pullback

<ul>
<li>Rising Chinese port arrivals and softer steel production continue to weigh on iron ore fundamentals despite resilient hot metal output.</li>
<li>Iron ore’s recent rally is increasingly losing technical conviction, with momentum indicators now aligning toward a more defensive near-term setup.</li>
<li>Managed money participants remain selectively bullish on iron ore, though persistent short buildup highlights lingering caution around China demand and market volatility.</li>
</ul>


Rising Chinese port arrivals and softer steel production continue to weigh on iron ore fundamentals despite resilient hot metal output.
Iron ore’s recent rally is increasingly losing technical conviction, with momentum indicators now aligning toward a more defensive near-term setup.
Managed money participants remain selectively bullish on iron ore, though persistent short buildup highlights lingering caution around China demand and market volatility.


Rebuilding Supply-Side Pressure Is Strengthening Bearish Conviction in Iron Ore

<ul>
<li>Improving Chinese mill profitability and resilient operating rates continue supporting iron ore demand, even as rising seaborne supply caps upside momentum.</li>
<li>Technical indicators continue to support iron ore prices, though increasingly stretched momentum signals suggest upside may become harder to sustain.</li>
<li>Managed money participants continued to tilt bullish as sharper short covering offset long liquidation, reinforcing confidence in resilient iron ore demand conditions.</li>
</ul>


Improving Chinese mill profitability and resilient operating rates continue supporting iron ore demand, even as rising seaborne supply caps upside momentum.
Technical indicators continue to support iron ore prices, though increasingly stretched momentum signals suggest upside may become harder to sustain.
Managed money participants continued to tilt bullish as sharper short covering offset long liquidation, reinforcing confidence in resilient iron ore demand conditions.


Elevated Iron Ore Prices Leave Limited Headroom Without a Fresh Market Trigger

<ul>
<li>Iron ore rallied on restocking and tighter inventories, but easing volatility and shifting options positioning suggest fading momentum into coming months.</li>
<li>Implied volatility dropped sharply while skew and positioning turned cautious, signalling markets expect smaller moves despite recent price resilience.</li>
<li>Strong near-term demand supported prices, yet options markets reveal growing downside hedging and softer conviction as expectations moderate into Q3.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore rallied on restocking and tighter inventories, but easing volatility and shifting options positioning suggest fading momentum into coming months.
Implied volatility dropped sharply while skew and positioning turned cautious, signalling markets expect smaller moves despite recent price resilience.
Strong near-term demand supported prices, yet options markets reveal growing downside hedging and softer conviction as expectations moderate into Q3.


Iron Ore Monthly (April 2026): Skew Repricing and Lower IV Point to Moderating Expectations Into Q3

Australia

BHP Group Ltd operates as an international resources company. The Company offers mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel, and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)

Copper: Acid Bottlenecks Persist, but Surplus Is Re-Emerging

Re-sharing as recent copper strength continues to raise the question of whether upstream tightness is genuinely transmitting into the refined...

Duncan Chan

Iron Ore Sentiment Stays Fragile but a Key Technical Support Is Cushioning the Pullback

Iron ore markets remain under pressure from rising seaborne supply and weak Chinese steel margins, while technical indicators continue to point...

Mint Finance

Rebuilding Supply-Side Pressure Is Strengthening Bearish Conviction in Iron Ore

Chinese port arrivals and softer steel production are impacting iron ore fundamentals, with a recent rally losing technical conviction.

Mint Finance

Elevated Iron Ore Prices Leave Limited Headroom Without a Fresh Market Trigger

Firm Chinese steel demand and resilient mill profitability continue to support iron ore prices, though current levels are increasingly raising...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Monthly (April 2026): Skew Repricing and Lower IV Point to Moderating Expectations Into Q3

Rally holds for now, but options markets quietly flag fading momentum, rising caution, and a subtle shift toward downside protection.

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Copper: Acid Bottlenecks Persist, but Surplus Is Re-Emerging

Re-sharing as recent copper strength continues to raise the question of whether upstream tightness is genuinely transmitting into the refined...

Duncan Chan

Iron Ore Sentiment Stays Fragile but a Key Technical Support Is Cushioning the Pullback

Iron ore markets remain under pressure from rising seaborne supply and weak Chinese steel margins, while technical indicators continue to point...

Mint Finance

Rebuilding Supply-Side Pressure Is Strengthening Bearish Conviction in Iron Ore

​Chinese port arrivals and softer steel production are impacting iron ore fundamentals, with a recent rally losing technical conviction.

Mint Finance

Elevated Iron Ore Prices Leave Limited Headroom Without a Fresh Market Trigger

Firm Chinese steel demand and resilient mill profitability continue to support iron ore prices, though current levels are increasingly raising...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Monthly (April 2026): Skew Repricing and Lower IV Point to Moderating Expectations Into Q3

Rally holds for now, but options markets quietly flag fading momentum, rising caution, and a subtle shift toward downside protection.

Mint Finance

Chinese port arrivals and softer steel production are impacting iron ore fundamentals, with a recent rally losing technical conviction.