Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a> for its exposure to high-grade iron ore (95% of EBITDA) and capital return discipline, with a current dividend yield of 8% and 3.5x EV-EBITDA. </li>
<li>The cash flows from the iron ore business could be used to invest in base metals, such as copper, nickel, etc., to enhance the portfolio. </li>
<li>The key risk remains the overhang from the Mariana Dam disaster being settled for  ~25.7 billion USD (vs. the current market cap of 50 billion USD). </li>
</ul>


We like Vale (VALE US) for its exposure to high-grade iron ore (95% of EBITDA) and capital return discipline, with a current dividend yield of 8% and 3.5x EV-EBITDA. 
The cash flows from the iron ore business could be used to invest in base metals, such as copper, nickel, etc., to enhance the portfolio. 
The key risk remains the overhang from the Mariana Dam disaster being settled for  ~25.7 billion USD (vs. the current market cap of 50 billion USD). 


VALE US: Exposure to High-Grade Iron Ore With >8% Dividend Yield

<ul>
<li>Investics Research will initiate coverage of the materials sector in April 2024, starting with iron ore and then gold, coal, and steel in subsequent months (in that order).</li>
<li>The areas of coverage on asset classes will encompass the underlying commodity and the associated equities. </li>
<li>Areas of differentiation would include in-depth coverage of all equities (small/mid and large cap) and actionable tactical ideas on the commodity.</li>
</ul>


Investics Research will initiate coverage of the materials sector in April 2024, starting with iron ore and then gold, coal, and steel in subsequent months (in that order).
The areas of coverage on asset classes will encompass the underlying commodity and the associated equities. 
Areas of differentiation would include in-depth coverage of all equities (small/mid and large cap) and actionable tactical ideas on the commodity.


Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

<ul><li>Fortescue&rsquo;s weaker-than-expected quarterly update has heightened concerns over its pricing power, with China&rsquo;s tougher negotiating stance threatening lasting consequences.</li><li> Fortescue&rsquo;s preliminary quarterly operational report disappoints Lower realised pricing reflects China&rsquo;s growing bargaining power Ongoing dispute with buying agency over long-term offtake pricing Bell Potter sees an increasing shift in pricing power towards buyers</li></ul>

Fortescue&rsquo;s weaker-than-expected quarterly update has heightened concerns over its pricing power, with China&rsquo;s tougher negotiating stance threatening lasting consequences. Fortescue&rsquo;s preliminary quarterly operational report disappoints Lower realised pricing reflects China&rsquo;s growing bargaining power Ongoing dispute with buying agency over long-term offtake pricing Bell Potter sees an increasing shift in pricing power towards buyers

Fortescue Confronts A New Pricing Reality

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Elevated portside inventories and a fresh WoW increase suggest Golden Week restocking has yet to translate into meaningful inventory drawdowns.</li>
<li>Options positioning is turning increasingly constructive, with call OI building at strikes 105 and 110. OI PCR of 0.61 reinforces the bullish bias.</li>
<li>Managed money extended its bearish positioning for a 12th straight week, trimming long exposure by ~4% while increasing short positions by ~3%. </li>
</ul>


Elevated portside inventories and a fresh WoW increase suggest Golden Week restocking has yet to translate into meaningful inventory drawdowns.
Options positioning is turning increasingly constructive, with call OI building at strikes 105 and 110. OI PCR of 0.61 reinforces the bullish bias.
Managed money extended its bearish positioning for a 12th straight week, trimming long exposure by ~4% while increasing short positions by ~3%. 


Iron Ore’s GWH Restocking Is Back in Play, But Mill Margins Lag

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>The latest half year results from BHP indicate continued operational and financial strength, supported by robust commodity prices and disciplined capital management.</li><li>The company reported a 25% increase in underlying EBITDA to $6.2 billion in attributable profit, with margins improving to 58% and return on capital employed rising to 24%.</li><li>Production grew by 2%, while unit costs improved approximately 4.5%, despite inflation and currency headwinds.</li></ul>

The latest half year results from BHP indicate continued operational and financial strength, supported by robust commodity prices and disciplined capital management.The company reported a 25% increase in underlying EBITDA to $6.2 billion in attributable profit, with margins improving to 58% and return on capital employed rising to 24%.Production grew by 2%, while unit costs improved approximately 4.5%, despite inflation and currency headwinds.

BHP Group’s Copper Powerhouse: Can 2.5 Million Tonnes Redefine Its Growth Story?

Australia

BHP Group Ltd operates as an international resources company. The Company offers mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel, and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)

VALE US: Exposure to High-Grade Iron Ore With >8% Dividend Yield

We initiate coverage on VALE US, one of the world's biggest iron ore producers, with high-grade iron ore and low-cost production. The stock trades...

Sameer Taneja

Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector

We provide readers with an introduction to our initiation on commodities. We also provide a rationale as to how our coverage will be comprehensive...

Sameer Taneja

Fortescue Confronts A New Pricing Reality

Fortescue’s weaker-than-expected quarterly update has heightened concerns over its pricing power, with China’s tougher negotiating stance...

FNArena

Iron Ore’s GWH Restocking Is Back in Play, But Mill Margins Lag

Iron ore’s near-term direction remains sentiment-led, as restocking and bullish options positioning compete with weak steel margins.

Mint Finance

BHP Group’s Copper Powerhouse: Can 2.5 Million Tonnes Redefine Its Growth Story?

The latest half year results from BHP indicate continued operational and financial strength, supported by robust commodity prices and disciplined...

Baptista Research

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