External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by 58% YoY to RMB556mn, beating our/consensus estimate of RMB677/633mn, mainly attributable to the better-than-expected control in non-GAAP opex.</li><li>For FY23, total revenue was up 3% YoY to RMB22.5bn, with adjusted net loss narrowing by 49% YoY to RMB3.4bn.</li><li>Looking into 2024, the focus for Bili remains as enhancing monetization and improving content ecosystem. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by 58% YoY to RMB556mn, beating our/consensus estimate of RMB677/633mn, mainly attributable to the better-than-expected control in non-GAAP opex.For FY23, total revenue was up 3% YoY to RMB22.5bn, with adjusted net loss narrowing by 49% YoY to RMB3.4bn.Looking into 2024, the focus for Bili remains as enhancing monetization and improving content ecosystem. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) - Steady Progress Towards a Sustainable Business Model

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>We view both Weixin Video Account (WVA) and Douyin China as secondary assets to their respective parents, which in our view, may lead to them forming...(TBC) </li>
<li>However, rising competition in the short-play (短剧) market may put the two businesses in more direct confrontation, which may delay or diminish the chance for two to work together;</li>
<li>We view Tencent as the likely winner in the continuing evolution of short video as it considers various options to maximize the value of WVA traffic.</li>
</ul>


We view both Weixin Video Account (WVA) and Douyin China as secondary assets to their respective parents, which in our view, may lead to them forming...(TBC) 
However, rising competition in the short-play (短剧) market may put the two businesses in more direct confrontation, which may delay or diminish the chance for two to work together;
We view Tencent as the likely winner in the continuing evolution of short video as it considers various options to maximize the value of WVA traffic.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Latest Developments in Short Video Point to Possibilities

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s due to PDD’s overseas performance and price sensitive consumers.</li>
<li>Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe to bypass the investigation on Chinese export subsidies.</li>
<li>ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy and, 2,000 employees may lose their jobs.</li>
</ul>


PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s due to PDD’s overseas performance and price sensitive consumers.
Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe to bypass the investigation on Chinese export subsidies.
ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy and, 2,000 employees may lose their jobs.


China Consumption Weekly (4 Dec 2023): PDD, Alibaba, AliHealth, Great Wall Motor, ByteDance

<ul>
<li>Bilibili reported  C3Q23 revenue, operating profit, and GAAP net income inline, 4.37%, (21.6%) vs. consensus. The miss was primarily due to ineffective investment in game studio and related costs.</li>
<li>We are bearish on BILI’s game pipeline as ACGN is already a crowded market with well-entrenched competitors</li>
<li>We maintain our SELL rating and cut the TP from US$ 12.3 to US$ 9.04, and consider that it is unlikely for them to breakeven in 2024</li>
</ul>


Bilibili reported  C3Q23 revenue, operating profit, and GAAP net income inline, 4.37%, (21.6%) vs. consensus. The miss was primarily due to ineffective investment in game studio and related costs.
We are bearish on BILI’s game pipeline as ACGN is already a crowded market with well-entrenched competitors
We maintain our SELL rating and cut the TP from US$ 12.3 to US$ 9.04, and consider that it is unlikely for them to breakeven in 2024


[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation

<ul><li>BiliBili reported inline 3Q23 results on 29 Nov: total revenue was flat YoY at RMB5.81bn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB5.77/5.80bn; adjusted net loss narrowed by 50% YoY and 9% QoQ to RMB878mn, but missed CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB757/778mn due to the higher-than-expected investment loss (incl. impairment).</li><li>Bili guides its FY23 total revenue to be at the lower-end of the RMB22.5-23.5bn range, which is in line with our expectation, due to the softer-than-expected performance of mobile game business.</li><li>For 4Q23E, we forecast total revenue to grow by 3% YoY to RMB6.3bn, primarily supported by growth of ad/VAS revenue (+25%/18% YoY) but partially offset by a decline in mobile games revenue (-5% YoY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BiliBili reported inline 3Q23 results on 29 Nov: total revenue was flat YoY at RMB5.81bn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB5.77/5.80bn; adjusted net loss narrowed by 50% YoY and 9% QoQ to RMB878mn, but missed CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB757/778mn due to the higher-than-expected investment loss (incl. impairment).Bili guides its FY23 total revenue to be at the lower-end of the RMB22.5-23.5bn range, which is in line with our expectation, due to the softer-than-expected performance of mobile game business.For 4Q23E, we forecast total revenue to grow by 3% YoY to RMB6.3bn, primarily supported by growth of ad/VAS revenue (+25%/18% YoY) but partially offset by a decline in mobile games revenue (-5% YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) – Game Business Weighed on Revenue Growth Despite Resilient Ad and VAS Business

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

Bilibili (BILI US) - Steady Progress Towards a Sustainable Business Model

Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Latest Developments in Short Video Point to Possibilities

The competition in the short-play market may hinder the collaboration between Weixin Video Account and Douyin China, but Tencent is expected to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Consumption Weekly (4 Dec 2023): PDD, Alibaba, AliHealth, Great Wall Motor, ByteDance

PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s. Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe. ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy.

Ming Lu

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation

Bilibili's Q3 results disappoint due to ineffective investment in game studio. Analysts are bearish on their game pipeline and maintain a SELL...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) – Game Business Weighed on Revenue Growth Despite Resilient Ad and VAS Business

We maintain our total revenue forecast largely unchanged and see Bili remain on track for breakeven by endFY24. We maintain our SOTP-based TP of...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bilibili (BILI US) - Steady Progress Towards a Sustainable Business Model

Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Latest Developments in Short Video Point to Possibilities

​The competition in the short-play market may hinder the collaboration between Weixin Video Account and Douyin China, but Tencent is expected to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Consumption Weekly (4 Dec 2023): PDD, Alibaba, AliHealth, Great Wall Motor, ByteDance

PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s. Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe. ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy.

Ming Lu

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation

​Bilibili's Q3 results disappoint due to ineffective investment in game studio. Analysts are bearish on their game pipeline and maintain a SELL...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) – Game Business Weighed on Revenue Growth Despite Resilient Ad and VAS Business

We maintain our total revenue forecast largely unchanged and see Bili remain on track for breakeven by endFY24. We maintain our SOTP-based TP of...

CMB International

The competition in the short-play market may hinder the collaboration between Weixin Video Account and Douyin China, but Tencent is expected to...

Bilibili's Q3 results disappoint due to ineffective investment in game studio. Analysts are bearish on their game pipeline and maintain a SELL...