Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.  </li>
<li>2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.</li>
<li>Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).</li>
</ul>


2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.  
2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.
Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).


SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.</li>
<li>There will be no index changes for the June 2025 rebalance event.</li>
<li>We expect a one-way flow of US$700mn for June 2025.</li>
</ul>


The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
There will be no index changes for the June 2025 rebalance event.
We expect a one-way flow of US$700mn for June 2025.


[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.</li>
<li>There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a> will have largest outflows.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US). Broadcom (AVGO US) will have largest outflows.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Qualcomm acquired Alphawave, a UK firm that specializes in chip design IP, especially silicon photonics and chiplets. </li>
<li>AMD acquired 3 firms. Untether AI, an AI edge / inference chip designer. Brium, an AI software and compiler firm. Enosemi, a silicon photonics and co-packaged optics firm. </li>
<li>4 acquisitions in 2 weeks. AMD and Qualcomm are putting their money where their mouth is: the future is AI. This also illustrates how far ahead Nvidia is.</li>
</ul>


Qualcomm acquired Alphawave, a UK firm that specializes in chip design IP, especially silicon photonics and chiplets. 
AMD acquired 3 firms. Untether AI, an AI edge / inference chip designer. Brium, an AI software and compiler firm. Enosemi, a silicon photonics and co-packaged optics firm. 
4 acquisitions in 2 weeks. AMD and Qualcomm are putting their money where their mouth is: the future is AI. This also illustrates how far ahead Nvidia is.


<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade is US$17.4bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27537:1" rel="noopener">Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visa-inc-class-a-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8707:1" rel="noopener">Visa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/live-nation-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6893:1" rel="noopener">Live Nation Entertainment</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tko-group-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40463:1" rel="noopener">TKO Group Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omnicom-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15775:1" rel="noopener">Omnicom Group</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.
The round-trip trade is US$17.4bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US) and Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US). 
The largest flows are expected in Exxon Mobil, Alphabet, Chevron Corp, Visa, Blackstone, Live Nation Entertainment, Meta, Broadcom, TKO Group Holdings, Dell Technologies and Omnicom Group.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

United States

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

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Broadcom (AVGO US)

SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.

Nicolas Baratte

[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

No index changes to the MVIS US Semiconductor 25 Index but $700mm of capping flows makes for a bit of interest. There will be other semiconductor...

Travis Lundy

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

Semiconductor Shopping Season Is Now

AMD and Qualcomm make strategic acquisitions in chip design and AI technology, highlighting their focus on the future of AI and competition with...

Nicolas Baratte

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

Capping changes for the Select Sector indices and Equal Weight Index will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.4bn. There are some stocks with...

Brian Freitas

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SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

​Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.

Nicolas Baratte

[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

No index changes to the MVIS US Semiconductor 25 Index but $700mm of capping flows makes for a bit of interest. There will be other semiconductor...

Travis Lundy

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

Semiconductor Shopping Season Is Now

​AMD and Qualcomm make strategic acquisitions in chip design and AI technology, highlighting their focus on the future of AI and competition with...

Nicolas Baratte

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

Capping changes for the Select Sector indices and Equal Weight Index will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.4bn. There are some stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.

AMD and Qualcomm make strategic acquisitions in chip design and AI technology, highlighting their focus on the future of AI and competition with...