AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly, The Physical Layer

The Physical Layer

AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly

A journal on the physical constraints behind the AI buildout: power, grid connection, data centres, cooling and the supply chains that gate them. Written to be understood by anyone.

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul><li>Almost every advanced AI chip, whoever designs it, is made by one company, TSMC, mostly in Taiwan.</li><li>Its chief executive says those factories, not electricity, are what limits AI today, and the company's own numbers show why: a new chip factory takes years to build and more years to fill.</li><li>That is a fair point, and it changes how long I think the chip side of the shortage lasts.</li></ul>

Almost every advanced AI chip, whoever designs it, is made by one company, TSMC, mostly in Taiwan.Its chief executive says those factories, not electricity, are what limits AI today, and the company's own numbers show why: a new chip factory takes years to build and more years to fill.That is a fair point, and it changes how long I think the chip side of the shortage lasts.

TSMC's chief says the AI bottleneck is its factories, not the power grid

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Samsung Foundry’s utilisation is recovering on 4nm/8nm, but 2nm yields keep break-even out of reach; TSMC tightness and Tesla’s AI6 deal are the near-term demand supports.</li>
<li>TSMC’s 3nm is effectively sold out through 2027, turning what began as a CoWoS bottleneck into a wafer constraint and pushing customers to hedge via Samsung and Intel.</li>
<li>AI is creating a new materials bottleneck in indium phosphide, while China’s CXMT accelerates DRAM scale-up, narrowing the process gap and reshaping bargaining power.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Foundry’s utilisation is recovering on 4nm/8nm, but 2nm yields keep break-even out of reach; TSMC tightness and Tesla’s AI6 deal are the near-term demand supports.
TSMC’s 3nm is effectively sold out through 2027, turning what began as a CoWoS bottleneck into a wafer constraint and pushing customers to hedge via Samsung and Intel.
AI is creating a new materials bottleneck in indium phosphide, while China’s CXMT accelerates DRAM scale-up, narrowing the process gap and reshaping bargaining power.


[Wafer Watch] Foundry Loading, 3nm Scarcity, and New Materials Constraints

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).</li>
<li>Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold</li>
<li>The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).
Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold
The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS


Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Chips /Cover Story: U.S. and Chinese Chipmakers Tread Different Paths in AI Gold Rush</li><li>China-U.S. /: China, U.S. Reach Basic Consensus in Kuala Lumpur Trade Talks Ahead of Leaders’ Summit</li><li>Hospitals /: China’s Public Hospitals Report Mixed Fortunes as Financial Pressures Mount</li></ul>

Chips /Cover Story: U.S. and Chinese Chipmakers Tread Different Paths in AI Gold RushChina-U.S. /: China, U.S. Reach Basic Consensus in Kuala Lumpur Trade Talks Ahead of Leaders’ SummitHospitals /: China’s Public Hospitals Report Mixed Fortunes as Financial Pressures Mount

CX Daily: U.S. and Chinese Chipmakers Tread Different Paths in AI Gold Rush 

<ul>
<li>Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.</li>
<li>While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the <em>pricing</em> boom may be peaking.</li>
<li>Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.</li>
</ul>


Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.


Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

United States

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

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Broadcom (AVGO US)

TSMC's chief says the AI bottleneck is its factories, not the power grid

Almost every advanced AI chip, whoever designs it, is made by one company, TSMC, mostly in Taiwan. Its chief executive says those factories, not...

The Physical Layer

[Wafer Watch] Foundry Loading, 3nm Scarcity, and New Materials Constraints

Samsung’s utilisation improves, TSMC’s 3nm is sold out, InP substrates tighten, and CXMT accelerates its DRAM build-out.

Mint Finance

Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Back to Near-Term Bullish on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX; Crucial Supports Held at 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on $QQQ, we are near-term bullish as...

Vermilion Research

CX Daily: U.S. and Chinese Chipmakers Tread Different Paths in AI Gold Rush

TOP STORIES Chips / Cover Story: U. S. and Chinese Chipmakers Tread Different Paths in AI Gold Rush A global race to dominate artificial...

Caixin Global

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC's chief says the AI bottleneck is its factories, not the power grid

Almost every advanced AI chip, whoever designs it, is made by one company, TSMC, mostly in Taiwan. Its chief executive says those factories, not...

The Physical Layer

[Wafer Watch] Foundry Loading, 3nm Scarcity, and New Materials Constraints

Samsung’s utilisation improves, TSMC’s 3nm is sold out, InP substrates tighten, and CXMT accelerates its DRAM build-out.

Mint Finance

Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Back to Near-Term Bullish on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX; Crucial Supports Held at 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on $QQQ, we are near-term bullish as...

Vermilion Research

CX Daily: U.S. and Chinese Chipmakers Tread Different Paths in AI Gold Rush

TOP STORIES Chips / Cover Story: U. S. and Chinese Chipmakers Tread Different Paths in AI Gold Rush A global race to dominate artificial...

Caixin Global

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

​Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...