Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class="">
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This week in trade ideas: Short Italian stocks and bonds on election-related turbulence, under-priced risk scenarios (BTP-Bund, FTSE-MIB vs Stoxx 600). Short EUR-JPY, long EUR-SEK. Stay long SGD-CNH, AUD-NZD, Malaysian equities.
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Monday: ECB Draghi and VP nominee de Guindos, UK Corbyn</li>
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Tuesday: NZ trade, Korea BOK, German CPI, Barnier Brexit briefing, US durable goods, Fed Powell Day 1</li>
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Wednesday: Japan retails/IP…</li>
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Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.

This week in trade ideas: Short Italian stocks and bonds on election-related turbulence, under-priced risk scenarios (BTP-Bund, FTSE-MIB vs Stoxx 600). Short EUR-JPY, long EUR-SEK. Stay long SGD-CNH, AUD-NZD, Malaysian equities.


Monday: ECB Draghi and VP nominee de Guindos, UK Corbyn

Tuesday: NZ trade, Korea BOK, German CPI, Barnier Brexit briefing, US durable goods, Fed Powell Day 1

Wednesday: Japan retails/IP…


Week Ahead in Global Macro: Powell in Congress, Italian Elections, PMIs, US PCE, Brexit Speech

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22869" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1">Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY)</a> (BRENT) started a bullish trend in early 2016, with no strong signs of reversal at this stage. Long term view should advocate for further rise towards 80.00.However, overbought indicators combined with with the potential end of an intermediate bull cycle in the 65.00/68.00 area suggest that a period of range/setback should be taking place.Correlated assets are also showing negative signals. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22833" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22833:1">RUB (USDRUB CURNCY)</a> is expected to depreciate towards the 61.00/62.00 area…

Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY) (BRENT) started a bullish trend in early 2016, with no strong signs of reversal at this stage. Long term view should advocate for further rise towards 80.00.However, overbought indicators combined with with the potential end of an intermediate bull cycle in the 65.00/68.00 area suggest that a period of range/setback should be taking place.Correlated assets are also showing negative signals. RUB (USDRUB CURNCY) is expected to depreciate towards the 61.00/62.00 area…

Brent Crude Oil Is Showing Signs of Exhaustion

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

I’ve been going to Canada since 1981, and spending about a month a year for the last 20 years (family). Going forward, there is a good case that Canada offers more upside opportunity than the US.***I’ve been posting odd comments for several months that the Loonie is attractive relative to the US dollar. At every opportunity recently, I have bought Canada relative to US. When Canada banks corrected, I accumulated and added to a small allocation in global oversold banks (I say small because I am…

I’ve been going to Canada since 1981, and spending about a month a year for the last 20 years (family). Going forward, there is a good case that Canada offers more upside opportunity than the US.***I’ve been posting odd comments for several months that the Loonie is attractive relative to the US dollar. At every opportunity recently, I have bought Canada relative to US. When Canada banks corrected, I accumulated and added to a small allocation in global oversold banks (I say small because I am…

O Canada…The New Land of Opportunity. So Much Potential, Yet…CAD Rally Nonetheless

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

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Chartonics FX macro Monday 23 July 2017</div><div>Euro, GBP and AUD openers and lids</div>Euro weekly chart denotes two key points:1. Above 1.15 there is virtually no resistance until 1.20/21.2. RSI has pierced resistance with MACD in pursuit.<div>This bigger picture must be combined with the daily cycle which is nearing extended territory as bull divergence brews as pointed out in our regular updates. Spikes toward 1.17 have faded in the past and this one may push marginally higher and then fade which represents the…</div>


Chartonics FX macro Monday 23 July 2017Euro, GBP and AUD openers and lidsEuro weekly chart denotes two key points:1. Above 1.15 there is virtually no resistance until 1.20/21.2. RSI has pierced resistance with MACD in pursuit.This bigger picture must be combined with the daily cycle which is nearing extended territory as bull divergence brews as pointed out in our regular updates. Spikes toward 1.17 have faded in the past and this one may push marginally higher and then fade which represents the…

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

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<li>Canadian household debt to GDP stands at a record and about 70ppts higher than the US - house prices are at historically high levels versus incomes and rents.</li>
<li>In real terms, the median Toronto house price has doubled in real terms over the past decade – selling prices in the city were up 33% y/y last month, sparking the introduction of a 15% tax on foreign buyers.</li>
<li>Rising risk aversion reflected in tighter consumer lending criteria (particularly for subprime borrowers) will drag on growth next year…</li>
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Canadian household debt to GDP stands at a record and about 70ppts higher than the US - house prices are at historically high levels versus incomes and rents.
In real terms, the median Toronto house price has doubled in real terms over the past decade – selling prices in the city were up 33% y/y last month, sparking the introduction of a 15% tax on foreign buyers.
Rising risk aversion reflected in tighter consumer lending criteria (particularly for subprime borrowers) will drag on growth next year…


Canadian Canaries in the Basement, China Insurers Attractive…

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: Powell in Congress, Italian Elections, PMIs, US PCE, Brexit Speech

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Short Italian stocks and bonds on...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Brent Crude Oil Is Showing Signs of Exhaustion

Crude Oil (CRUDE OIL COMDTY) (BRENT) started a bullish trend in early 2016, with no strong signs of reversal at this stage. Long term view should...

Guillaume Coutant

O Canada…The New Land of Opportunity. So Much Potential, Yet…CAD Rally Nonetheless

I’ve been going to Canada since 1981, and spending about a month a year for the last 20 years (family). Going forward, there is a good case that...

Charles De Trenck

FX Macro - Euro GBP and AUD

Chartonics FX macro Monday 23 July 2017Euro, GBP and AUD openers and lidsEuro weekly chart denotes two key points:1. Above 1.15 there is virtually...

Thomas Schroeder

Canadian Canaries in the Basement, China Insurers Attractive…

Canadian household debt to GDP stands at a record and about 70ppts higher than the US - house prices are at historically high levels versus...

Sean Maher

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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