External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position widened $1.7bn in the week ended June 24, reaching $20.1bn.</li><li>The bearish position has already reached fresh local wides (lows) and is threatening the wides briefly tested in mid-2023.</li><li>This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor deterioration in the GBP (long reduction).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position widened $1.7bn in the week ended June 24, reaching $20.1bn.The bearish position has already reached fresh local wides (lows) and is threatening the wides briefly tested in mid-2023.This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor deterioration in the GBP (long reduction).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Bet Continues to Build

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Over the weekend, oil traders dusted off their Strait of Hormuz crisis playbooks—and once again, they overplayed their hand.</li><li>Saturday’s U.S. strike inside Iran sparked a sharp wave of geopolitical anxiety, turbocharged by Iran’s retaliatory missile barrage and the familiar threat from Tehran’s Parliament to shut down the Strait.</li><li>Add a few “Hormuz closed?” headlines and prediction markets went into meltdown, briefly treating a full blockade as the base case.</li></ul>

Over the weekend, oil traders dusted off their Strait of Hormuz crisis playbooks—and once again, they overplayed their hand.Saturday’s U.S. strike inside Iran sparked a sharp wave of geopolitical anxiety, turbocharged by Iran’s retaliatory missile barrage and the familiar threat from Tehran’s Parliament to shut down the Strait.Add a few “Hormuz closed?” headlines and prediction markets went into meltdown, briefly treating a full blockade as the base case.

Steno Signals #202 – Peak WW3 Fears Return!

<ul><li>Reports of the USD’s reserve currency death have been greatly exaggerated, and SWIFT international transaction data reveal a peerless dollar share nearing 50% of all transactions on the network, underscoring its prevailing position as the primary medium of global payments.</li><li>The next closest currency—EUR—hovers just below 25% and is showing signs of a slight pickup after plummeting from near-40% levels in early 2023.</li><li>The USD’s dominance is notable, and its recent ascendance is even more remarkable given that it had languished around 40% over much of the past decade.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Reports of the USD’s reserve currency death have been greatly exaggerated, and SWIFT international transaction data reveal a peerless dollar share nearing 50% of all transactions on the network, underscoring its prevailing position as the primary medium of global payments.The next closest currency—EUR—hovers just below 25% and is showing signs of a slight pickup after plummeting from near-40% levels in early 2023.The USD’s dominance is notable, and its recent ascendance is even more remarkable given that it had languished around 40% over much of the past decade.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USD Payments Dominance Unchallenged As CAD Unseats CNY

<ul><li>The latest CFTC futures positioning report captured investors’ sentiment as of May 13, representing positioning in the immediate aftermath of the US/China trade talks in Switzerland.</li><li>Overall, the w/w adjustments across most of the reporting currencies were minimal and included a build in the bullish net long EUR position and a widening of the net short CAD position as the net long JPY position was slightly reduced.</li><li>The aggregate USD short narrowed a modest $0.7bn on the week, to $16.5bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The latest CFTC futures positioning report captured investors’ sentiment as of May 13, representing positioning in the immediate aftermath of the US/China trade talks in Switzerland.Overall, the w/w adjustments across most of the reporting currencies were minimal and included a build in the bullish net long EUR position and a widening of the net short CAD position as the net long JPY position was slightly reduced.The aggregate USD short narrowed a modest $0.7bn on the week, to $16.5bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Speculative Currency Positions Unchanged Post US/China Trade Talks

<ul><li>The aggregate speculative bearish USD position has pushed deeper into negative territory, widening $3.1bn w/w to $17.0bn.</li><li>This week’s adjustments were relatively small overall, concentrated primarily in EUR with modest contributions from adjustments to MXN, NZD, and GBP as well.</li><li>The CAD and JPY positions were remarkably unchanged. The JPY position remains the largest held long against the USD, followed by EUR.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate speculative bearish USD position has pushed deeper into negative territory, widening $3.1bn w/w to $17.0bn.This week’s adjustments were relatively small overall, concentrated primarily in EUR with modest contributions from adjustments to MXN, NZD, and GBP as well.The CAD and JPY positions were remarkably unchanged. The JPY position remains the largest held long against the USD, followed by EUR.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - USD Bear Bet Builds & Gold Long Tumbles

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Bet Continues to Build

This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor...

Scotiabank

Steno Signals #202 – Peak WW3 Fears Return!

Over the weekend, oil traders dusted off their Strait of Hormuz crisis playbooks—and once again, they overplayed their hand. Saturday’s U.S....

Steno Research

FX Snapshot - USD Payments Dominance Unchallenged As CAD Unseats CNY

The USD’s dominance is notable, and its recent ascendance is even more remarkable given that it had languished around 40% over much of the past...

Scotiabank

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Speculative Currency Positions Unchanged Post US/China Trade Talks

The latest CFTC futures positioning report captured investors’ sentiment as of May 13, representing positioning in the immediate aftermath of the...

Scotiabank

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - USD Bear Bet Builds & Gold Long Tumbles

This week’s adjustments were relatively small overall, concentrated primarily in EUR with modest contributions from adjustments to MXN, NZD, and...

Scotiabank

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