Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.</li><li>The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.</li><li>Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.</li></ul>

Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The CAD has been one of the weaker performers over the course of the week but is heading into the long weekend here with a marginal loss against the USD of just over 0.2%.</li><li>That 0.2% still counts though and the CAD has been under pressure for much of the week after looking well bid and testing USD support around 1.3150 on Monday.</li><li>The CAD’s performance has been undercut by a mixture of factors but the broader market volatility around Fitch downgrade of the US” sovereign credit rating rattled the CAD a little as risk appetite weakened and, absent any compelling reason to buy, investors remain sidelined. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD has been one of the weaker performers over the course of the week but is heading into the long weekend here with a marginal loss against the USD of just over 0.2%.That 0.2% still counts though and the CAD has been under pressure for much of the week after looking well bid and testing USD support around 1.3150 on Monday.The CAD’s performance has been undercut by a mixture of factors but the broader market volatility around Fitch downgrade of the US” sovereign credit rating rattled the CAD a little as risk appetite weakened and, absent any compelling reason to buy, investors remain sidelined. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Finds Support in the High 1.33s

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Key summer developments at a glance: The Fed increased the funds rate by 25bp to the range 5.25-5.50%.</li><li>The central bank signalled that it will remain data dependent, maintaining its hiking bias on the back of inflation worries.</li><li>Still robust data from the real economy but also lower inflation data has buoyed markets view of a soft landing.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Key summer developments at a glance: The Fed increased the funds rate by 25bp to the range 5.25-5.50%.The central bank signalled that it will remain data dependent, maintaining its hiking bias on the back of inflation worries.Still robust data from the real economy but also lower inflation data has buoyed markets view of a soft landing.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Since 2020Q2, actual consumption has been below desired. </li><li>The gap between the two —a measure of pent -up demand —explains in large part the incredible resilience of the Canadian economy to the rapid rise in interest rates.</li><li>Low and accommodative real interest rates, record low unemployment, combined with increased net wealth through rising home equity and excess savings and high oil prices drove a substantial increase in Canadians’ desired level of consumption.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Since 2020Q2, actual consumption has been below desired. The gap between the two —a measure of pent -up demand —explains in large part the incredible resilience of the Canadian economy to the rapid rise in interest rates.Low and accommodative real interest rates, record low unemployment, combined with increased net wealth through rising home equity and excess savings and high oil prices drove a substantial increase in Canadians’ desired level of consumption.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pent-Up Demand, Resilient Economy, and Rising Interest Rates (August 2, 2023)

<ul><li>With the central bank tightening and continuing globally with Fed and ECB hiking rates 25bps and BoJ moving the YCC cap, we have a look at global money trends again today to see if correlations hold and what to expect next in global markets.</li><li>Main take-aways: M1 growth looks outright horrible in the West, while Asian money trends looks very bullishM2 sub-components are still pointing towards more money flowing into more illiquid time-depositsReal M2 is starting to turn positive.</li><li>Could reignite inflation and fuel further economic growth.</li></ul>

With the central bank tightening and continuing globally with Fed and ECB hiking rates 25bps and BoJ moving the YCC cap, we have a look at global money trends again today to see if correlations hold and what to expect next in global markets.Main take-aways: M1 growth looks outright horrible in the West, while Asian money trends looks very bullishM2 sub-components are still pointing towards more money flowing into more illiquid time-depositsReal M2 is starting to turn positive.Could reignite inflation and fuel further economic growth.

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility...

Steno Research

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Finds Support in the High 1.33s

The CAD has been one of the weaker performers over the course of the week but is heading into the long weekend here with a marginal loss against...

Scotiabank

Macro & Markets: Welcome back

Key summer developments at a glance: The Fed increased the funds rate by 25bp to the range 5.25-5.50%. The central bank signalled that it will...

Nordea

Pent-Up Demand, Resilient Economy, and Rising Interest Rates (August 2, 2023)

Since 2020Q2, actual consumption has been below desired. The gap between the two —a measure of pent -up demand —explains in large part the...

Scotiabank

Money Watch – Is money growth BACK?

With the central bank tightening and continuing globally with Fed and ECB hiking rates 25bps and BoJ moving the YCC cap, we have a look at global...

Steno Research

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