Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a> as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s index weight is below the 10% cap for now. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a> later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
There will be passive buying in BayCurrent Consulting as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s index weight is below the 10% cap for now. 

ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) replaces NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>I published a Sep25 Nikkei 225 prediction list last Wednesday. By Friday, we had a new paradigm due to an ad hoc change. That new paradigm informs the September selection. </li>
<li>As it is, I expect one (1) ADD (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a>) and one (1) DELETE (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokuyama-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14781:1" rel="noopener">Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)</a>) - a prediction which change on a corporate announcement.</li>
<li>My confidence on the ADD is a little lower due to the implications of the choice of Rohm. And the interesting ECM trade for September remains Sony Financial. </li>
</ul>


I published a Sep25 Nikkei 225 prediction list last Wednesday. By Friday, we had a new paradigm due to an ad hoc change. That new paradigm informs the September selection. 
As it is, I expect one (1) ADD (Shift Inc (3697 JP)) and one (1) DELETE (Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)) - a prediction which change on a corporate announcement.
My confidence on the ADD is a little lower due to the implications of the choice of Rohm. And the interesting ECM trade for September remains Sony Financial. 


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL, Less Certain Than Before

<ul>
<li>Today the results of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a> Tender Offer came out. NTT has 81.75%. I warned of lack of liquidity at that level yesterday <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-event-potentially-interesting-dynamics-of-post-tender-ntt-data-9613-trading-8bn-one-way" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. </li>
<li>Yesterday I proposed that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> would replace NTT Data in the Nikkei 225 and that the likely timing was the last couple of days of August.</li>
<li>Today, the Nikkei used the June 2020 rule change to announce NTT Data's near-term deletion. Rohm goes in 3 July. 7.5x ADV to buy. $3.8bn a side to trade.</li>
</ul>


Today the results of the NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) Tender Offer came out. NTT has 81.75%. I warned of lack of liquidity at that level yesterday here. 
Yesterday I proposed that ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) would replace NTT Data in the Nikkei 225 and that the likely timing was the last couple of days of August.
Today, the Nikkei used the June 2020 rule change to announce NTT Data's near-term deletion. Rohm goes in 3 July. 7.5x ADV to buy. $3.8bn a side to trade.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Boots NTT Data (9613) Early, Rohm (6963) IN 3 July; $3.8bn a Side

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The data observation period is done. No rank changes in the top candidates since mid-Jan. Capping for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> is confirmed. </li>
<li>For me, it is 2 or 3 ADDs, depending. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is still tops. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> second. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> third.</li>
<li>Kokusai is +26.7% in 5 weeks since I <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kokusai-electric-6525-upcoming-lockup-expiry-and-big-index-demand" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote</a> bullishly, despite news/confirmation of getting the boot from a global index at end-Feb. Baycurrent is +39.7% (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baycurrent-consulting-6532-high-growth-ok-multiple-big-index-inclusion-coming-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>). Now we count flows.</li>
</ul>


The data observation period is done. No rank changes in the top candidates since mid-Jan. Capping for Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is confirmed. 
For me, it is 2 or 3 ADDs, depending. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is still tops. BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) second. Shift Inc (3697 JP) third.
Kokusai is +26.7% in 5 weeks since I wrote bullishly, despite news/confirmation of getting the boot from a global index at end-Feb. Baycurrent is +39.7% (link). Now we count flows.


[Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from their lockup soon.</li>
<li>Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from their lockup soon.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

Japan

CAPCOM CO., LTD. develops consumer video game software.  The Company also develops, manufactures, markets, and leases arcade game machines.  Capcom also operates amusement facilities.

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Capcom Co Ltd (9697 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

With the review period nearly complete, we expect 1-2 changes for the NKY in September. The Kokusai Electric placement improves inclusion odds. No...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD/DEL, Less Certain Than Before

The early Nikkei 225 replacement action for NTT Data introduced a new paradigm for cash takeovers and set a limit for float. That makes the Sep...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Boots NTT Data (9613) Early, Rohm (6963) IN 3 July; $3.8bn a Side

The Nikkei has used June 2020 rule change language to boot NTT Data earlier than expected. It makes sense. Expect this is new precedent. Rohm is...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

This is the last Nikkei rebal preview before announcement. We have capping confirmed for Fastie, and the three ADDs have been doing well. There are...

Travis Lundy

Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from...

Sumeet Singh

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