Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A month ago Capcom announced Street Fighter 6 with a small trailer featuring no actual gameplay footage. </li>
<li>Given the somewhat haphazard launch of Street Fighter 5 expectations for the title are likely to be moderate. </li>
<li>However, there has been much progress since the launch of Street Fighter 5 and there are some promising signs to consider.</li>
</ul>


A month ago Capcom announced Street Fighter 6 with a small trailer featuring no actual gameplay footage. 
Given the somewhat haphazard launch of Street Fighter 5 expectations for the title are likely to be moderate. 
However, there has been much progress since the launch of Street Fighter 5 and there are some promising signs to consider.


Capcom – The Prospects for Street Fighter 6

<ul>
<li>Following on from a recent Street Fighter 6 reveal, Capcom announced new IP Exoprimal at today’s Sony State of Play. </li>
<li>The two announcements strengthen Capcom’s pipeline for FY23 and FY24 although leaks had already revealed the likely launch timing of SF6. </li>
<li>Exoprimal is new news, however, and provides a glimpse into Capcom’s strategic thinking.</li>
</ul>


Following on from a recent Street Fighter 6 reveal, Capcom announced new IP Exoprimal at today’s Sony State of Play. 
The two announcements strengthen Capcom’s pipeline for FY23 and FY24 although leaks had already revealed the likely launch timing of SF6. 
Exoprimal is new news, however, and provides a glimpse into Capcom’s strategic thinking.


Capcom – Street Fighter 6 and ExoPrimal Strengthen Pipeline

<ul>
<li>We had expected 3Q results for Capcom to be unsurprising given a lack of new titles and OP of ¥6.17bn was in line with consensus at ¥6.23bn. </li>
<li>The launch of Monster Hunter Rise for PC did not go as smoothly as we hoped but the trend appears to be improving. </li>
<li>All in all FY OP looks set to slightly beat consensus and guidance for better than double digit growth is likely in our view.</li>
</ul>


We had expected 3Q results for Capcom to be unsurprising given a lack of new titles and OP of ¥6.17bn was in line with consensus at ¥6.23bn. 
The launch of Monster Hunter Rise for PC did not go as smoothly as we hoped but the trend appears to be improving. 
All in all FY OP looks set to slightly beat consensus and guidance for better than double digit growth is likely in our view.


Capcom – In-Line Results Could Drive a Re-Verse in Fortunes

<ul>
<li>Early last year we very wrongly called Capcom as our top short-term pick as we expected an earnings blowout in 1QFY22. </li>
<li>The blowout duly came with OP 37% above clueless sell side expectations and… the stock tanked. </li>
<li>Almost a year later the stock languishes 28% lower just as the PC version of Monster Hunter Rise launches.</li>
</ul>


Early last year we very wrongly called Capcom as our top short-term pick as we expected an earnings blowout in 1QFY22. 
The blowout duly came with OP 37% above clueless sell side expectations and… the stock tanked. 
Almost a year later the stock languishes 28% lower just as the PC version of Monster Hunter Rise launches.


Capcom – Monster Hunter Rise PC Launches Even as Stock Hits 12 Month Low

<ul>
<li>Spider-Man: No Way Home appears set to more or less match the opening weekend of Avengers: Infinity War. </li>
<li>This is extremely strong performance especially given lingering pandemic impacts. </li>
<li>It also suggests that our call that the Spider-Man IP would step into the MCU void following Avengers: Endgame is likely correct.</li>
</ul>


Spider-Man: No Way Home appears set to more or less match the opening weekend of Avengers: Infinity War. 
This is extremely strong performance especially given lingering pandemic impacts. 
It also suggests that our call that the Spider-Man IP would step into the MCU void following Avengers: Endgame is likely correct.


Japan

CAPCOM CO., LTD. develops consumer video game software.  The Company also develops, manufactures, markets, and leases arcade game machines.  Capcom also operates amusement facilities.

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Capcom Co Ltd (9697 JP)

Capcom – The Prospects for Street Fighter 6

Expectations for Street Fighter 6 appear to be moderate rather than exceptional at the moment but we see signs that Capcom has started to figure...

Mio Kato

Capcom – Street Fighter 6 and ExoPrimal Strengthen Pipeline

Following on from a recent Street Fighter 6 reveal, Capcom announced new IP Exoprimal at today’s Sony State of Play. Exoprimal is new news and...

Mio Kato

Capcom – In-Line Results Could Drive a Re-Verse in Fortunes

Capcom's launch of Monster Hunter Rise PC did not go smoothly but the trend appears to be improving and FY OP looks set to slightly beat consensus...

Mio Kato

Capcom – Monster Hunter Rise PC Launches Even as Stock Hits 12 Month Low

Early last year we very wrongly called Capcom as our top short-term pick. Almost a year later the stock languishes 28% lower just as the PC version...

Mio Kato

Sony – Spider-Man Is the Holiday Hero

Spider-Man: No Way Home is set to match the opening weekend of Avengers: Infinity War supporting our call that the Spider-Man IP would step into...

Mio Kato

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