HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>All three Chinese airlines trimmed their losses in 1H24, suggesting a pick-up in sector fundamentals. However, their 2Q24 bottom line displayed different trends.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> is performing the best, with QoQ improvement in both reported and recurring losses (reduction by 41.7% and 7.4%, respectively).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, however, dipped back into red in 2Q24 after making a profit in 1Q24. With Air China underperforming YTD, there is room to revenge in 2H24.</li>
</ul>


All three Chinese airlines trimmed their losses in 1H24, suggesting a pick-up in sector fundamentals. However, their 2Q24 bottom line displayed different trends.

Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) is performing the best, with QoQ improvement in both reported and recurring losses (reduction by 41.7% and 7.4%, respectively).

China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), however, dipped back into red in 2Q24 after making a profit in 1Q24. With Air China underperforming YTD, there is room to revenge in 2H24.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> wants to buy 20% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE (4477 JP)</a> out of 46.7% likely available. That's unlikely at ¥340; they'll have to bump to get those shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/continental-aerospace-technologies-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15249:1" rel="noopener">Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK)</a> has played out nicely. There's still money on the table - just a question mark on timing for the distribution from "surplus cash".</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-chemical-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12781:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Chemical (4188 JP)</a>'s turnaround narrative sees it trading rich (implied stub &amp; simple ratio) to ~51%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-sanso-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15756:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Sanso Holdings (4091 JP)</a>'s steady-as-you-go narrative.</li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP) wants to buy 20% of BASE (4477 JP) out of 46.7% likely available. That's unlikely at ¥340; they'll have to bump to get those shares.

Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK) has played out nicely. There's still money on the table - just a question mark on timing for the distribution from "surplus cash".

Mitsubishi Chemical (4188 JP)'s turnaround narrative sees it trading rich (implied stub &amp; simple ratio) to ~51%-held Nippon Sanso Holdings (4091 JP)'s steady-as-you-go narrative.


Last Week In Event SPACE: SBI/BASE, Con Aero Tech, Mitsubishi Chem/Nippon Sanso, Swire Pac, Jollibee

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A late-week rebound changed the tone after a soggy start with single stock option volumes following suit.</li>
<li>The debut of 625 drew attention as both the shares and newly listed options began trading during a difficult week.</li>
<li>Financials separated themselves from the broader market as performance across the rest of the optionable universe remained weak.</li>
</ul>


A late-week rebound changed the tone after a soggy start with single stock option volumes following suit.
The debut of 625 drew attention as both the shares and newly listed options began trading during a difficult week.
Financials separated themselves from the broader market as performance across the rest of the optionable universe remained weak.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Aug 31–Sep 4: SHEIN Options Trading Debuts With Mixed Results

<ul>
<li>Via an accelerated exchange, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-limited-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> is soliciting tenders from its 2027 exchangeable bond holders and, in parallel, placing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay (293 HK)</a> shares to fund the bond repurchase.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Swire, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Via an accelerated exchange, Swire Pacific (19 HK) is soliciting tenders from its 2027 exchangeable bond holders and, in parallel, placing Cathay (293 HK) shares to fund the bond repurchase.
Preceding my comments on Swire, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire Accelerates Cathay Exchange. "As" At Multi-Decade Premium To "Bs"

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we analyze SHEIN's Marketing expenses, which rose sharply in FY25 and Q126</li>
<li>We also revisit SHEIN's Fulfilment expenses, which likely ballooned in Q226 on higher fuel</li>
<li>We believe high and rising Marketing, Fulfilment expenses to smother FY26 margins</li>
</ul>


In this insight we analyze SHEIN's Marketing expenses, which rose sharply in FY25 and Q126
We also revisit SHEIN's Fulfilment expenses, which likely ballooned in Q226 on higher fuel
We believe high and rising Marketing, Fulfilment expenses to smother FY26 margins


SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Examining Marketing Expense Trend | Fulfilment Expense in Q226 Likely Spiked

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific is a premium travel lifestyle brand offering scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation, along with low-cost travel and various lifestyle products and services. The airline connects Hong Kong, mainland China, and the world through its hub at Hong Kong International Airport. It was founded in Hong Kong in 1946.

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Cathay Pacific (293 HK)

Chinese Airlines: Diverging Performance

Chinese airlines are the key beneficiaries of stronger Rmb as US rates drop, driven primarily by their high gearing and significant USD borrowings....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: SBI/BASE, Con Aero Tech, Mitsubishi Chem/Nippon Sanso, Swire Pac, Jollibee

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Aug 31–Sep 4: SHEIN Options Trading Debuts With Mixed Results

SHEIN’s options debut drew the spotlight during a difficult week, as a late rebound lifted the market tone and Financials separated themselves from...

John Ley

StubWorld: Swire Accelerates Cathay Exchange. "As" At Multi-Decade Premium To "Bs"

The accelerated exchange is unusual. Perhaps Cathay shares are being placed with EB holders. Pac is elevated on a NAV basis and implied stub. Pac's...

David Blennerhassett

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Examining Marketing Expense Trend | Fulfilment Expense in Q226 Likely Spiked

In its first day of trading on September 1, SHEIN's shares closed down 0.1% in Hong Kong after initially falling close to 10%. We're re-surfacing a...

Tracking Traffic

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