Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China is expanding its list of countries allowed to enter visa-free. A good gesture to make China more friendly to foreigners and one step closer to global best practices </li>
<li>Chinese major airlines and airports can become more desirable global aviation hubs, assuming they play their cards right </li>
<li>Doubt much can change in a year, but the seeds are sown for stiffer competition for airlines with a hub-and-spoke strategy in North Asia</li>
</ul>


China is expanding its list of countries allowed to enter visa-free. A good gesture to make China more friendly to foreigners and one step closer to global best practices 
Chinese major airlines and airports can become more desirable global aviation hubs, assuming they play their cards right 
Doubt much can change in a year, but the seeds are sown for stiffer competition for airlines with a hub-and-spoke strategy in North Asia


China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Lou Jiwei /: Exclusive Interview: Lou Jiwei on tackling a greying China</li><li>Corruption /: Trending in China: ‘Lenient’ punishment of corrupt retired official sparks anger</li><li>XPeng /: XPeng suspends supply chain chief in internal graft crackdown</li></ul>

Lou Jiwei /: Exclusive Interview: Lou Jiwei on tackling a greying ChinaCorruption /: Trending in China: ‘Lenient’ punishment of corrupt retired official sparks angerXPeng /: XPeng suspends supply chain chief in internal graft crackdown

CX Daily: Exclusive Interview: Lou Jiwei on Tackling a Greying China

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Index Rebalance

Virgin Australia Holdings / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-australia-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:814:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Australia (VAH AU)</a> IPO in June 2025. All of Bain’s stake could be released from escrow soon.</li>
<li>Virgin Australia (VA) is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>


Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia (VAH AU) IPO in June 2025. All of Bain’s stake could be released from escrow soon.
Virgin Australia (VA) is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Virgin Australia IPO Lockup - Bain Set for Full and Final US$600m Release

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>The underperformance of Chinese airlines looks unjustified to us, especially in view of the significant narrow-down in losses in 2Q23, particularly for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>While domestic passenger capacity has fully recovered, international capacity is still more than 50% below Jun 2019. We anticipate its recovery will drive profitability over the next 12 months.</li>
<li>We prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a> given its excellent leverage to international routes and exposure to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>. Its FY24F ROE of 45% is impressive too. </li>
</ul>


The underperformance of Chinese airlines looks unjustified to us, especially in view of the significant narrow-down in losses in 2Q23, particularly for Air China Ltd (753 HK). 
While domestic passenger capacity has fully recovered, international capacity is still more than 50% below Jun 2019. We anticipate its recovery will drive profitability over the next 12 months.
We prefer Air China Ltd (753 HK) given its excellent leverage to international routes and exposure to Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK). Its FY24F ROE of 45% is impressive too. 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>EQT would probably jump higher and Bain would come out above that. Both would aim high to get it done and not lose the asset. Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com (2371 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> books losses in response to contractual relief delays (or cancellation altogether[?]), Hanwha steps in with a fair offer for Austal's US unit.</li>
<li>The NAV discount has narrowed, and the implied stub is elevated, but at 0.34x forward P/B, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-limited-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> is still a buy.</li>
</ul>


EQT would probably jump higher and Bain would come out above that. Both would aim high to get it done and not lose the asset. Stay long Kakaku.com (2371 JP).
As Austal Ltd (ASB AU) books losses in response to contractual relief delays (or cancellation altogether[?]), Hanwha steps in with a fair offer for Austal's US unit.
The NAV discount has narrowed, and the implied stub is elevated, but at 0.34x forward P/B, Swire Pacific (19 HK) is still a buy.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Austal, Swire Pacific, Ajinomoto Malaysia

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific is a premium travel lifestyle brand offering scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation, along with low-cost travel and various lifestyle products and services. The airline connects Hong Kong, mainland China, and the world through its hub at Hong Kong International Airport. It was founded in Hong Kong in 1946.

Price Gauge
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Cathay Pacific (293 HK)

China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...

Mo Aziz

CX Daily: Exclusive Interview: Lou Jiwei on Tackling a Greying China

Lou Jiwei /: Exclusive Interview: Lou Jiwei on tackling a greying China Corruption /: Trending in China: ‘Lenient’ punishment of corrupt retired...

Caixin Global

Aequitas: Virgin Australia IPO Lockup - Bain Set for Full and Final US$600m Release

Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia (VAH AU) IPO in June 2025. All of Bain’s stake could be...

Sumeet Singh

Chinese Airlines: Taking off Again

The underperformance of Chinese airlines is unjustified. Recovery of international routes over the next 12 months and exposure to Cathay Pacific...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Austal, Swire Pacific, Ajinomoto Malaysia

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

​China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...

Mo Aziz

CX Daily: Exclusive Interview: Lou Jiwei on Tackling a Greying China

Lou Jiwei /: Exclusive Interview: Lou Jiwei on tackling a greying China Corruption /: Trending in China: ‘Lenient’ punishment of corrupt retired...

Caixin Global

Aequitas: Virgin Australia IPO Lockup - Bain Set for Full and Final US$600m Release

Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia (VAH AU) IPO in June 2025. All of Bain’s stake could be...

Sumeet Singh

Chinese Airlines: Taking off Again

The underperformance of Chinese airlines is unjustified. Recovery of international routes over the next 12 months and exposure to Cathay Pacific...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Austal, Swire Pacific, Ajinomoto Malaysia

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...