Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Of the seven US metrics we track, six showed a weaker pace of Y/Y change vs July data</li>
<li>Five of the seven border crossing metrics showed Y/Y declines in August (vs only two in July)</li>
<li>As a proxy for US leisure and travel activity, the August numbers paint a bleak picture</li>
</ul>


Of the seven US metrics we track, six showed a weaker pace of Y/Y change vs July data
Five of the seven border crossing metrics showed Y/Y declines in August (vs only two in July)
As a proxy for US leisure and travel activity, the August numbers paint a bleak picture


August US Customs & Border Protection Data Confirm Softening Travel Trend in Most Segments, Regions

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener"></a>'s recent outperformance is predicted on a (perceived) greater flexibility to shift capacity/routes versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1080:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH)</a>, and proportionately less Middle East exposure.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Cathay/Air China  - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a> - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)'s recent outperformance is predicted on a (perceived) greater flexibility to shift capacity/routes versus Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH), and proportionately less Middle East exposure.
Preceding my comments on Cathay/Air China  - and WH Group (288 HK) - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Cathay Air Outperforming Air China; And WH Group Outperforming Smithfield

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>'s Jan figures suggest a good start, as passenger traffic grew 12.3% despite a high base in the last year.  </li>
<li>The market consensus forecast of 8% profit decline for FY26 is too conservative. Even on such a forecast, it still trades on an undemanding 9.3x PER and 4.8% yield.</li>
<li>CX is expected to have an average FY25-27F ROE of 15.9%, the highest level in the last 15 years. Hence, its P/B of 1.35x is inexpensive.</li>
</ul>



Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)'s Jan figures suggest a good start, as passenger traffic grew 12.3% despite a high base in the last year.  
The market consensus forecast of 8% profit decline for FY26 is too conservative. Even on such a forecast, it still trades on an undemanding 9.3x PER and 4.8% yield.
CX is expected to have an average FY25-27F ROE of 15.9%, the highest level in the last 15 years. Hence, its P/B of 1.35x is inexpensive.


<ul>
<li>Back on the 5th November 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>  <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1105/2025110502046.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it planned to acquire Qatar Airways' 9.57% stake at HK$10.8374/share, or an outlay of HK$6.96bn (~US$890mn).</li>
<li>This development required SFC approval (granting a MGO waiver), as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a>'s stake in Cathay increased to 47.69% (from 43.12%); and Air China’s stake to 31.78% (from 28.74%).</li>
<li>Curiously, Air China has now entered into a share placing agreement, the result of which would see its stake settle at 29.98% after the Qatar Airways buyback.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 5th November 2025, Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)  announced it planned to acquire Qatar Airways' 9.57% stake at HK$10.8374/share, or an outlay of HK$6.96bn (~US$890mn).
This development required SFC approval (granting a MGO waiver), as Swire Pacific (19 HK)'s stake in Cathay increased to 47.69% (from 43.12%); and Air China’s stake to 31.78% (from 28.74%).
Curiously, Air China has now entered into a share placing agreement, the result of which would see its stake settle at 29.98% after the Qatar Airways buyback.


Cathay (293 HK): Air China Sells Down Ahead Of Qatar Airway's Buyback

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
 <li>
EPS Accretive Share Buyback: The recent decision to buy back Qatar Airways' 9.57% stake is expected to provide an approximate 10.5% boost to Earnings Per Share (EPS), signaling management's confidence in the company's financial outlook and operational recovery.</li>
 <li>
Post-Pandemic Recovery Momentum: Cathay Pacific is demonstrating a robust recovery, with plans to reach 100% of pre-pandemic flight capacity. This is driven by a significant rebound in passenger demand and a strong performance in its cargo division, which is capitalizing on global e-commerce growth.</li>
 <li>
Attractive Valuation with Catalysts: Trading at a forward EV/EBITDA multiple below its peer group, the company presents a compelling valuation. Potential catalysts, including the positive financial impact of the share buyback and a possible re-inclusion in the Hang Seng Index, could drive further upside.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
EPS Accretive Share Buyback: The recent decision to buy back Qatar Airways' 9.57% stake is expected to provide an approximate 10.5% boost to Earnings Per Share (EPS), signaling management's confidence in the company's financial outlook and operational recovery.
  
Post-Pandemic Recovery Momentum: Cathay Pacific is demonstrating a robust recovery, with plans to reach 100% of pre-pandemic flight capacity. This is driven by a significant rebound in passenger demand and a strong performance in its cargo division, which is capitalizing on global e-commerce growth.
  
Attractive Valuation with Catalysts: Trading at a forward EV/EBITDA multiple below its peer group, the company presents a compelling valuation. Potential catalysts, including the positive financial impact of the share buyback and a possible re-inclusion in the Hang Seng Index, could drive further upside.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) - Dec 2025

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific is a premium travel lifestyle brand offering scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation, along with low-cost travel and various lifestyle products and services. The airline connects Hong Kong, mainland China, and the world through its hub at Hong Kong International Airport. It was founded in Hong Kong in 1946.

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Cathay Pacific (293 HK)

August US Customs & Border Protection Data Confirm Softening Travel Trend in Most Segments, Regions

By almost every measure, August's US border crossing data look even weaker than the mediocre numbers from July. Clearly, US travel and leisure...

Tracking Traffic

StubWorld: Cathay Air Outperforming Air China; And WH Group Outperforming Smithfield

It's a weak parent/sub relationship; however I'd be reversing Cathay vs. Air China here. I'd also look to reverse the WH Group stub. Shorts are...

David Blennerhassett