Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

Cf Industries Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>This is our first report on one of the largest producers of nitrogen products in the world – CF Industries.</li><li>CF’s overall performance was fairly good against the backdrop of a continually tight global supply-demand balance for nitrogen.</li><li>We initiate coverage on the stock of CF Industries with an 'Outperform' rating.</li></ul>

This is our first report on one of the largest producers of nitrogen products in the world – CF Industries.CF’s overall performance was fairly good against the backdrop of a continually tight global supply-demand balance for nitrogen.We initiate coverage on the stock of CF Industries with an 'Outperform' rating.

CF Industries Holdings Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. </li>
<li>The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. </li>
<li>These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. 
The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. 
These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.


Overearning Short Candidates: LSB Indust., CF Indust., Alpha Metallurg., Mueller Indust.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>North American allocations continue to trend higher, hitting a record average weight of 58.1% across the 358 global funds in our analysis</li>
<li>North America has consistently stolen market share from other key global regions, most notably Developed Market Europe, where average fund weights have hit all-time lows of 24.24%</li>
<li>Sectors driving allocations higher are led by Energy, Health Care and Industrials with active rotation in to all 3, whilst Consumer Staples have seen signs of investor fatigue.</li>
</ul>


North American allocations continue to trend higher, hitting a record average weight of 58.1% across the 358 global funds in our analysis
North America has consistently stolen market share from other key global regions, most notably Developed Market Europe, where average fund weights have hit all-time lows of 24.24%
Sectors driving allocations higher are led by Energy, Health Care and Industrials with active rotation in to all 3, whilst Consumer Staples have seen signs of investor fatigue.


North America Hits New Highs as Global Rotation Continues

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co Cl A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The following names are "on the workbench", ie., names we are working on that look interesting from the short side. They are discussed, with charts, in the PDF attached below.</li>
<li>We like to be as transparent as possible in our short idea generation process.  </li>
<li>Today, we are flagging: Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.</li>
</ul>


The following names are "on the workbench", ie., names we are working on that look interesting from the short side. They are discussed, with charts, in the PDF attached below.
We like to be as transparent as possible in our short idea generation process.  
Today, we are flagging: Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.


Short Names on Our "Workbench": Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.

Cf Industries Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

Overearning Short Candidates, CF Industries, Photronics, LSB Industries, Builders FirstSource

United States

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and distributes nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products globally. The Company's principal products in the nitrogen segment are ammonia, urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, ammonium nitrate, diesel exhaust fluid and aqua ammonia. The principal products in the phosphate segment are diammonium phosphate and  monoammonium phosphate.

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Cf Industries Holdings (CF US)

CF Industries Holdings Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

This is our first report on one of the largest producers of nitrogen products in the world – CF Industries. CF’s overall performance was fairly...

Baptista Research

Overearning Short Candidates: LSB Indust., CF Indust., Alpha Metallurg., Mueller Indust.

Margin over-earners are fertile hunting ground for shorts if the reasons for the margin increase are unsustainable or fraudulent. This week: LSB...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

North America Hits New Highs as Global Rotation Continues

North American allocations among active Global investors hit record highs, driven by Energy, Health Care and Industrials rotation.

Steven Holden

Short Names on Our "Workbench": Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.

Short names on our workbench (under research) provide a window into our idea generation process. Today, we are flagging They are: Scotts Miracle...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Overearning Short Candidates, CF Industries, Photronics, LSB Industries, Builders FirstSource

Margin over-earners are fertile hunting ground for shorts if the reasons for the margin increase are either unsustainable or fraudulent: CF...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

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