Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Street observers&nbsp;are blaming the slow down in visitor traffic from mainland as a result of the pro-democratic Occupy Central,&nbsp;increasing tension between Hongkongers and mainland Chinese, and anti-corruption campaign in China for the weak retail sales in Hong Kong.Would this be a one off event?Behind the scene, however, we think there are three important long term bearish structural trends that will have persistent&nbsp;impact on Hong Kong's tourism industry:&nbsp;<ul><li>We examined how Hong Kong is loosing its attractiveness to mainland Chinese.</li><li>We looked at how&nbsp;it is getting easier for Chinese to explore the world</li><li>We highlight some factors that are deterring Chinese from choosing Hong Kong &nbsp;as their holiday destination</li></ul>

Street observers&nbsp;are blaming the slow down in visitor traffic from mainland as a result of the pro-democratic Occupy Central,&nbsp;increasing tension between Hongkongers and mainland Chinese, and anti-corruption campaign in China for the weak retail sales in Hong Kong.Would this be a one off event?Behind the scene, however, we think there are three important long term bearish structural trends that will have persistent&nbsp;impact on Hong Kong's tourism industry:&nbsp;We examined how Hong Kong is loosing its attractiveness to mainland Chinese.We looked at how&nbsp;it is getting easier for Chinese to explore the worldWe highlight some factors that are deterring Chinese from choosing Hong Kong &nbsp;as their holiday destination

Hong Kong's Future? 3 structural bears for retailer/tourism

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are people who'll take profit in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> because of path dependency til year-end. It will drag out a while: buy the dips, trim on pops.</li>
<li>Just like in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holding-ltd-b751749a-8feb-4b4d-85a7-d99ac0308fe7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40067:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holding (6623 HK)</a>'s special dividend, expect Ping An to boost its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)</a> via the stealthy scrip dividend option. </li>
<li>The landscape for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a> has FULLY changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable.  </li>
</ul>


There are people who'll take profit in Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) because of path dependency til year-end. It will drag out a while: buy the dips, trim on pops.
Just like in Lufax Holding (6623 HK)'s special dividend, expect Ping An to boost its holding in Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) via the stealthy scrip dividend option. 
The landscape for Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP) has FULLY changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable.  


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Nec Networks, Genscript/Legend, ASM PT, Hanwha

Equity Bottom-Up

China Merchants China Direct Investments / Equity Bottom-Up

China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a> (CMCDI) has (belatedly) published notices of two extraordinary general meetings, both of which will take place on 29 November 2024. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1108/2024110800011.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">One</a> is for the renewal of the investment management agreement (IMA) for another three years, to be held at 10am. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1108/2024110800021.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second EGM</a>, requisitioned by Argyle Street Management, to be held at 11am, calls for a one-year IMA term limit, and the removal of Elizabeth Kan as an executive director. </li>
</ul>



China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) (CMCDI) has (belatedly) published notices of two extraordinary general meetings, both of which will take place on 29 November 2024. 

One is for the renewal of the investment management agreement (IMA) for another three years, to be held at 10am. 
The second EGM, requisitioned by Argyle Street Management, to be held at 11am, calls for a one-year IMA term limit, and the removal of Elizabeth Kan as an executive director. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16063:1" rel="noopener">Seven Bank (8410 JP)</a> is obvious. It has been obvious. It is non-core. It's always been non-core. It was made  clear in previous Strategy announcements,</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a>'s premium to NAV is unjustified. However reversing the stub has not been going to plan of late, as the NAV premium continues to widen.</li>
<li>Mavcom HAS approved the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a> deal. But still welcomes public consultation. So, approved or not?</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) selling Seven Bank (8410 JP) is obvious. It has been obvious. It is non-core. It's always been non-core. It was made  clear in previous Strategy announcements,

PCCW Ltd (8 HK)'s premium to NAV is unjustified. However reversing the stub has not been going to plan of late, as the NAV premium continues to widen.
Mavcom HAS approved the Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) deal. But still welcomes public consultation. So, approved or not?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Seven Bank, PCCW, Malaysia Airports, I'rom Group

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>'s roadmap is a solid response to where retailing is headed, both in Japan and elsewhere; while ACT's bid is just about carrying on as now.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR (1821 HK)</a> is a non-binding proposal, no official terms, with a fragmented shareholder register. And this is before any opaque PRC regulatory conditions tacked on in a firm Offer.</li>
<li>Murakami-San is up to 23.5% of voting rights in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a>. He would probably need 30% to be able to threaten a board spill.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)'s roadmap is a solid response to where retailing is headed, both in Japan and elsewhere; while ACT's bid is just about carrying on as now.

ESR (1821 HK) is a non-binding proposal, no official terms, with a fragmented shareholder register. And this is before any opaque PRC regulatory conditions tacked on in a firm Offer.
Murakami-San is up to 23.5% of voting rights in Exedy Corp (7278 JP). He would probably need 30% to be able to threaten a board spill.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ESR, Exedy, CMCDI, Shin Kong

Hong Kong

China Merchants China Direct Investments is an investment holding company specializing in direct investments in China, primarily in unlisted enterprises. It invests across various sectors including financial services, culture and media, manufacturing, real estate, information technology, energy and resources, and medical. The company is headquartered in Hong Kong and started its operations in 1993.

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China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)

Hong Kong's Future? 3 structural bears for retailer/tourism

Street observers are blaming the slow down in visitor traffic from mainland as a result of the pro-democratic Occupy Central, increasing tension...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Nec Networks, Genscript/Legend, ASM PT, Hanwha

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

CMCDI (133 HK)'s EGM Double-Header

If shareholders want exposure to CMB and iFlytek, they can buy directly, as opposed to a heavily discounted illiquid name. CMCDI's large NAV...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Seven Bank, PCCW, Malaysia Airports, I'rom Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ESR, Exedy, CMCDI, Shin Kong

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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