Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last year, the major gas pipeline companies owned by the SOEs all announced they were selling their intercity infrastructure and port offloading and storage operations to a new SOE called PipeChina. A few SOEs signed Sale and Purchase agreements in mid-2020. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> signed theirs in December. For Kunlun, that agreement went through at the end of March. The bulk of the payment should have gone through at the end of April, and When Kunlun reported its earnings in late March, it reported full-year on an ongoing basis with the Discontinued Assets representing a different set of numbers. At that point, Kunlun became an energy distribution company which was primarily a city gas company, and a big pile of cash. As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/osbert-tang-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3879" rel="noopener">Osbert Tang, CFA</a> discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kunlun-energy-135-hk-a-fantastic-1q21-at-kunlun-gas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50930" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Fantastic 1Q21 at Kunlun Gas</a> the largest contributor to the remaining business had a "fantastic Q1". Year-on-year results this year were always going to be "good" simply because of the growth from start of year to end of year in 2020. Straightline serial no-growth in 2021 would still have resulted in year-on-year growth, which itself seemed not to be in the minds of analysts looking at the pro-forma post-sale Kunlun. Surprisingly, since the announcement in December that the trade had been done, while Kunlun is up, because others are up just as much, the relative cheapness of Kunlun vs peers has actually increased.Below are data/visualizations suggesting how to look at Kunlun today.

Last year, the major gas pipeline companies owned by the SOEs all announced they were selling their intercity infrastructure and port offloading and storage operations to a new SOE called PipeChina. A few SOEs signed Sale and Purchase agreements in mid-2020. Kunlun Energy (135 HK) signed theirs in December. For Kunlun, that agreement went through at the end of March. The bulk of the payment should have gone through at the end of April, and When Kunlun reported its earnings in late March, it reported full-year on an ongoing basis with the Discontinued Assets representing a different set of numbers. At that point, Kunlun became an energy distribution company which was primarily a city gas company, and a big pile of cash. As Osbert Tang, CFA discussed in Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Fantastic 1Q21 at Kunlun Gas the largest contributor to the remaining business had a "fantastic Q1". Year-on-year results this year were always going to be "good" simply because of the growth from start of year to end of year in 2020. Straightline serial no-growth in 2021 would still have resulted in year-on-year growth, which itself seemed not to be in the minds of analysts looking at the pro-forma post-sale Kunlun. Surprisingly, since the announcement in December that the trade had been done, while Kunlun is up, because others are up just as much, the relative cheapness of Kunlun vs peers has actually increased.Below are data/visualizations suggesting how to look at Kunlun today. 

Kunlun Energy (135 HK) Approaching The Special Div - Still The Wrong Price

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

The most important subsidiary and key source of earnings of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> - unlisted Kunlun Gas - reported a fantastic 42.9% YoY growth in earnings for 1Q21. Even relative to 1Q19, the net profit figure is still 30.8% higher. While gross margin contracted YoY, likely due to higher procurement costs, the exciting volume growth has offset the impact of cost inflation, in our view.Kunlun Gas' 1Q21 net profit already equals to 37.5% of its total in last year, indicating a very positive start for FY21. Moreover, it has a very comfortable gearing of 19.5% and good operating cash flow, meaning that there is no need for it to seek funding from parent Kunlun Energy. Hence, Kunlun Energy can pursue more value-enhancing acquisitions through its cash on hand. All in all, the result implies great start for Kunlun Energy in 1Q21 - Kunlun Gas accounted for 72% of Kunlun Energy's net profit from continuing operations in last year.

The most important subsidiary and key source of earnings of Kunlun Energy (135 HK) - unlisted Kunlun Gas - reported a fantastic 42.9% YoY growth in earnings for 1Q21. Even relative to 1Q19, the net profit figure is still 30.8% higher. While gross margin contracted YoY, likely due to higher procurement costs, the exciting volume growth has offset the impact of cost inflation, in our view.Kunlun Gas' 1Q21 net profit already equals to 37.5% of its total in last year, indicating a very positive start for FY21. Moreover, it has a very comfortable gearing of 19.5% and good operating cash flow, meaning that there is no need for it to seek funding from parent Kunlun Energy. Hence, Kunlun Energy can pursue more value-enhancing acquisitions through its cash on hand. All in all, the result implies great start for Kunlun Energy in 1Q21 - Kunlun Gas accounted for 72% of Kunlun Energy's net profit from continuing operations in last year. 

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Fantastic 1Q21 at Kunlun Gas

Share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a> has dropped by 12.3% in the last three days after the 7.5% new share placement to raise HK$11.6bn. While there will be EPS dilution over the next two years, we still see EPS growth at a decent level with ROE staying high at 22.8% for FY22F. In fact, the frequent corporate moves recently including exploring hydrogen energy, developing LNG terminal and co-operating with major central SOEs are encouraging developments.Its cooperation with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> on hydrogen production and hydrogen refueling station will potentially open a growth driver to capture the numerous opportunities in this rapidly growing market segment. Meanwhile, the construction of LNG terminal will provide it a tighter grip on LNG cost and procurement. We see such strategic and operational developments positive to the long-term well-being of China Gas.

Share price of China Gas Holdings (384 HK) has dropped by 12.3% in the last three days after the 7.5% new share placement to raise HK$11.6bn. While there will be EPS dilution over the next two years, we still see EPS growth at a decent level with ROE staying high at 22.8% for FY22F. In fact, the frequent corporate moves recently including exploring hydrogen energy, developing LNG terminal and co-operating with major central SOEs are encouraging developments.Its cooperation with CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) on hydrogen production and hydrogen refueling station will potentially open a growth driver to capture the numerous opportunities in this rapidly growing market segment. Meanwhile, the construction of LNG terminal will provide it a tighter grip on LNG cost and procurement. We see such strategic and operational developments positive to the long-term well-being of China Gas.  

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Placement, Hydrogen Energy, LNG Terminal and Unicom/Sinopec Co-Ops

David Blennerhassett

Zhejiang Cangnan Instrument Group / Event-Driven

Zhejiang Cangnan Instrument Group (1743 HK)

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Back on the 5 February, gas meter manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-cangnan-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27212:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Cangnan Instrument (1743 HK)</a>  <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0205/2021020501022.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the board of directors had resolved to repurchase all the issued H shares in the company at a minimum price of HK$22.00/share, a 15.18% premium to last close. The buyback was subject to approval from the local bureau of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
This was followed by a conditional cash offer on the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0312/2021031201722.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">12 March</a>. The Offer is a "Merger by Absorption", incorporating a Scheme-like vote (≥ 75% for, ≤10% against); and a tendering condition of 90%. All H-shares are subject to the buy-back and the effective tendering % is 90%.
The Offer Document has been despatched with the IFA <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0401/2021040100071.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">concluding</a> the Offer price to be fair and reasonable.
The EGM will take place on the 17 May and the first closing date is the 31 May.
Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 7.3%/57.2%. But the thorny issue is the 90% tendering condition.
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More below the fold.
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Back on the 5 February, gas meter manufacturer Zhejiang Cangnan Instrument (1743 HK)  announced the board of directors had resolved to repurchase all the issued H shares in the company at a minimum price of HK$22.00/share, a 15.18% premium to last close. The buyback was subject to approval from the local bureau of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
This was followed by a conditional cash offer on the 12 March. The Offer is a "Merger by Absorption", incorporating a Scheme-like vote (≥ 75% for, ≤10% against); and a tendering condition of 90%. All H-shares are subject to the buy-back and the effective tendering % is 90%.
The Offer Document has been despatched with the IFA concluding the Offer price to be fair and reasonable.
The EGM will take place on the 17 May and the first closing date is the 31 May.
Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 7.3%/57.2%. But the thorny issue is the 90% tendering condition.


More below the fold.


Zhejiang Cangnan (1743 HK): H-Share Buyback

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a>'s post-FY20 result conference call revealed that the company sees a stable growth in FY21, with improvement expected for the natural gas, LNG processing and exploration &amp; production (E&amp;P) segments. The company also highlights that the new management that come on board in Nov 2020 will push for more involvement in new energy. Based on our back-of-the-envelope calculation, Kunlun's earnings growth will range between 25-28% in FY21, depending largely on the extent of the turnaround of the E&amp;P segment. On such expectation, we still see Kunlun trades on undemanding 8.8x PER for FY21, with a net cash position even after paying out the special dividends.

Kunlun Energy (135 HK)'s post-FY20 result conference call revealed that the company sees a stable growth in FY21, with improvement expected for the natural gas, LNG processing and exploration &amp; production (E&amp;P) segments. The company also highlights that the new management that come on board in Nov 2020 will push for more involvement in new energy. Based on our back-of-the-envelope calculation, Kunlun's earnings growth will range between 25-28% in FY21, depending largely on the extent of the turnaround of the E&amp;P segment. On such expectation, we still see Kunlun trades on undemanding 8.8x PER for FY21, with a net cash position even after paying out the special dividends.

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Key Takeaways from Post-Result Call

Hong Kong

China Resources Gas Group Limited is an investment holding company primarily engaged in the sale and distribution of natural and liquefied gas, and the construction and connection of gas pipelines. The company also offers comprehensive services including the sale of gas appliances and related products, and provides design, construction, consultancy, and management services for gas connection projects, as well as operating gas stations. It was incorporated in 1994 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

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China Resources Gas (1193 HK)

Kunlun Energy (135 HK) Approaching The Special Div - Still The Wrong Price

Kunlun has outperformed its peers since the announcement of the disposal of its pipeline business. There is one week til the ex-date of the special...

Travis Lundy

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Fantastic 1Q21 at Kunlun Gas

Kunlun Energy's most important unlisted subsidiary Kunlun Gas achieved net profit growth of 42.9% in 1Q21, and this is an impressive start for the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Placement, Hydrogen Energy, LNG Terminal and Unicom/Sinopec Co-Ops

We are not too negative on the new share placement by China Gas. We think the recent strategic and operational initiatives position it well in the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Key Takeaways from Post-Result Call

Kunlun's post-result call suggested a stable growth expectation for FY21, and we estimate 25-28% growth. There will be more involvement in new...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kunlun Energy (135 HK) Approaching The Special Div - Still The Wrong Price

Kunlun has outperformed its peers since the announcement of the disposal of its pipeline business. There is one week til the ex-date of the special...

Travis Lundy

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Fantastic 1Q21 at Kunlun Gas

Kunlun Energy's most important unlisted subsidiary Kunlun Gas achieved net profit growth of 42.9% in 1Q21, and this is an impressive start for the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Placement, Hydrogen Energy, LNG Terminal and Unicom/Sinopec Co-Ops

We are not too negative on the new share placement by China Gas. We think the recent strategic and operational initiatives position it well in the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhejiang Cangnan (1743 HK): H-Share Buyback

Given the company's dubious price action and shareholder concentration, I would normally give this stock a wide birth. Bit it is precisely this...

David Blennerhassett

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Key Takeaways from Post-Result Call

Kunlun's post-result call suggested a stable growth expectation for FY21, and we estimate 25-28% growth. There will be more involvement in new...

Osbert Tang, CFA